“Our leader forever” was a slogan often seen in Syria under President Hafez al-Assad, the father of today’s Syrian president.
The prospect that a dour, strong Syrian leader would live forever was a source of wry humor for many of my Syrian friends when I lived and worked in Aleppo in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Hafez al-Assad died in June 2000. He was completely immortal.
His government, however, lives on under the leadership of his son Bashar al-Assad.
There were times when the survival of Bashar’s regime was in doubt. When the so-called Arab Spring swept across the region in 2011, toppling rulers in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, and mass protests in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria, some began writing epitaphs for the Assad dynasty.
But Syria’s allies – Iran, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Russia – came to the rescue. Over the past few years the conflict in Syria between a corrupt, brutal government in Damascus and a divided, often radical opposition has seemed to be difficult.
Once rejected by his fellow Arab autocrats, Bashar al-Assad was slowly regaining the grudging respect of the Arabs.
Late Syrian President Hafez al-Assad waves from his car to cheering crowds on the streets of Damascus at an event marking the 16th anniversary of the party that brought him to power on November 16, 1987. – Ali Jarekji/Reuters
Was the crisis of the Syrian civil war coming to an end? Has Bashar al-Assad won? Indeed, that was the assumption of many, despite the fact that large parts of Syria were controlled by the Kurdish army supported by the United States and the Sunni groups supported by Turkey; that Hezbollah, Iran and Russia supported the regime; that the US controls areas in eastern Syria; that Israel attacked the air whenever it saw fit; and that ISIS, although defeated, was able to launch hit-and-run attacks.
That the government of Damascus was still standing behind everything seemed to be done by itself.
However, it was the assumption of the victory of the regime, which suddenly collapsed this week after the opposition, led by the former al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra – called Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham – launched an attack from the province of Idlib. For 72 hours, they managed to explode all the way to the center of Aleppo.
On Saturday evening, Syrian accounts on social media were buzzing about government forces falling in the north of the country, and rebels moving towards the center of the city of Hama. It was there, in early 1982, that Bashar’s father had his army and intelligence services kill thousands of his opponents, ending the uprising led by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Why, within a few days, has the dam collapsed?
A Syrian protest flag flies over a market in central Aleppo on November 30, 2024. – Muhammad Haj Kadour/AFP/Getty Images
The obvious explanation is that Syria’s allies – Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah – are all under pressure and letting their guard down.
Hezbollah – which played an important role in maintaining the regime during the worst days of the civil war – pulled most of its forces back home after October 7, 2023, to fight Israel, which later killed many of the group’s leaders.
Russia also played an important role in strengthening the government in Damascus after it sent troops and warplanes to Syria in September 2015. But now the most important thing in Moscow is the war in Ukraine. And, finally, Iranian advisers and bases in Syria have been attacked repeatedly by Israel in the past year.
Beyond all this, there is an important truth about longevity. The Assad dynasty has been in power for 53 years, since 1971. Although survival is a success, it has little else to show for it.
Global corruption and poor governance were a burden on the economy even before the civil war began in 2011. Since then, life for the average Syrian has gone from bad to worse. The war left hundreds of thousands dead, while millions more were driven into exile.
Time and time again since 1971 the Assad family has survived internal and external problems and lived to fight another day. But nothing, not governments, not leaders, lasts forever. All things come to an end.
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