Imagine the scene, at noon on January 20, west in front of the US Capitol.
As Donald Trump vows to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution at the same place where his supporters rioted four years ago, an extraordinary VIP guest looks on, covering former presidents, the military and members of Congress.
Tied to fend off the cold snap is Xi Jinping, China’s hard-line leader – a country that almost everyone on the first platform sees as an existential threat to US hegemony as the cold war of the 21st century accelerates.
This is an interesting picture, because even before the sources confirmed on Thursday that Xi would not go, it was clear that it could not happen, despite Trump’s extraordinary invitation to the leader of the Chinese Communist Party for the second inauguration that he hopes to turn into a wonderful country. statement.
Having Xi fly around the world would be the president-elect’s biggest mistake — a fact that makes politics almost impossible for a Chinese president. Such a visit would put the Chinese president in a position to pay tribute to Trump and American power – which would contradict his vision of China taking its rightful place as a world superpower. At the inauguration ceremony, Xi would be forced to listen to Trump without any power over what the new president might say but without the right to respond. Xi’s presence would also be seen as a confirmation of the democratic transfer of power – anathema to a single-party autocrat obsessed with crushing individual expression.
However, even without a positive response, Trump’s invitation to Xi marks an important event that sheds light on the confidence and ambition of the president-elect as he exercises power ahead of his second term. CNN’s team covering Mr. Trump said he has also been asking other world leaders if they want to attend the inauguration – a break from the convention.
This is a reminder of Trump’s interest in foreign policy and grandiose tactics and his willingness to trample departmental codes with his unpredictable behavior. Xi’s invitation also shows that Trump believes that the power of his personality alone can make a decision in creating development. He is far from the only leader to take this approach – which rarely works as the US’s most aggressive enemies make tough decisions based on national interest rather than vibes.
The president-elect’s invitation to Xi is particularly interesting because he has spent the past few weeks putting together a foreign policy team that is deeply hostile to China, including his choice for secretary of state, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and national security adviser. , Florida Rep. Mike Waltz, who sees China as a major threat to the United States, economically, on the oceans and even in space.
“This is an interesting move by Trump that is very consistent with his reckless behavior. I don’t think anyone expected this,” said Lily McElwee, deputy director and Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). McElwee said the invitation should be seen in the context of the sticks and carrots being used. and the president as he prepares to take on the world’s most important relationship interests of the US.”
Trump’s visit to Xi comes as expectations grow that US-China relations will worsen in the coming administration with officials determined to build on the even tougher line taken by the Biden administration, based on tough policies during Trump’s first term. .
The rivals are at loggerheads over Taiwan, an island democracy that China considers part of its territory and that the United States may or may not defend if Xi orders intervention. China is increasing its cooperation with other enemies of the US in an informal anti-Western axis including Russia, North Korea and Iran. The air and naval forces of the two Pacific superpowers often come perilously close to conflict in the South and East China seas. And lawmakers in both parties are accusing China of stealing U.S. economic and military secrets and failing to comply with international law and trade rules.
Since Trump has already threatened to impose tariffs on China, his attempt to persuade Xi to go to Washington seems like a huge contradiction. And it begs the next question as foreign governments worry about how the new US president will react: Should US allies and adversaries accept his bully-like rhetoric and uncompromising policy? The true way of America is shown by its stubborn leaders and policies or is it represented by the actions of the president-elect, who shows eagerness to make deals and sit at the negotiating table with stubborn world leaders?
Trump’s big start in China relations
Trump’s latest gambit may feel uncomfortable — but that doesn’t mean it can’t work.
While Trump’s critics often decry his recklessness, his off-the-cuff moves could upset rivals and open up US advantages. For example, any success he has in distancing Xi from China, Russia and North Korea would be a huge foreign policy win regardless of other US-China tensions.
But at the same time, it’s fair to question whether the fire and fury of his first foreign policy brought results.
Trump’s views on China are particularly confusing – as he seems to believe that Beijing’s policies are a threat to the US and that it has been tearing America apart for decades. But he still wants to be friends with Xi. On the campaign trail, Mr Trump repeatedly emphasized that Xi was tough and smart and that they were friends – seeming to believe that their friendship meant that the Chinese leader might share his views.
Trump made the argument in one sentence in an interview with Jim Cramer on CNBC on Thursday. “We’ve been talking and discussing with President Xi, other things and other things, other world leaders, and I think we’re going to do well on both sides,” Trump said. But he added: “We have been abused as a country. We have been severely abused from an economic point of view.
Trump’s tendency to downplay his administration’s agenda has continued to be seen in his first term, especially with strongmen such as Xi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. Sometimes it seemed like he took positions because everyone told him not to.
One of Trump’s former national security advisers, HR McMaster, wrote in his book “At War With Us” that this was largely attributed to Putin. “Like his predecessors George W. Bush and Barack Obama, Trump was overconfident in his ability to improve relations with the dictator in the Kremlin,” McMaster wrote. “Trump, who describes himself as a ‘professional broker,’ believed that he could build a relationship with Putin. Trump’s habit of being reflexively contrarian only increases his determination. The fact that many foreign policy experts in Washington recommended a tough approach to the Kremlin only seemed to drive the president in a different direction.”
Such contradictions may be encouraging Trump in his first olive branch to Xi. And the president-elect could also see a new trade deal with Beijing even though the first-ever agreement was binding. The Phase One deal he concluded at the end of 2019 and hailed as “historic” did not come to fruition. While Mr. Trump turned sharply against Xi months later because of the Covid-19 epidemic that began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, it was never clear that Xi ever wanted to fully implement what Trump called a major economic reform and a major US trade. agriculture, energy and manufacturing. There is no evidence that Xi has changed his mind.
Mr. Trump’s tax plan is also problematic because no one knows whether the president who does not want to harm his base is ready to pay the political price that such behavior may entail. Despite his insistence that the tariffs would end up costing Beijing billions, higher import prices would be passed on by US exporters to consumers – including voters who saw Mr Trump as the best hope for easing high grocery prices.
Another question: Does Trump see tariffs as a bargaining chip or a true act of economic warfare? Many analysts believe that his threats to allies such as Canada or the European Union are only intended to improve his negotiating position. But such is the dislike of China in Washington that the trade war with Beijing may continue and end in them.
“With China, do we still have an indication that the threat of tariffs is aimed at negotiating the possibility of an agreement, or is there another way to remove the US economy from China?” McElwee said.
Beijing seems to be taking Trump seriously. It has been weeks since Trump’s election that he has been calculating the tools of revenge. On Wednesday, it announced an antitrust investigation into US-based chip maker Nvidia. On one front of the technology war, China has banned the sale of several minerals to the United States. And on Thursday, it pledged to increase the budget deficit, borrow more money and loosen monetary policy to protect economic growth as a shield against renewed tensions with Trump.
This shows that a trade war could affect China as well as America. While the tariffs could send prices higher in the US, they could tighten profits and exacerbate some of China’s economic woes, including industrial overpopulation and household shortages.
So, Trump’s untruthful behavior may be starting to make sense in Beijing.
Seen from this perspective, Trump’s first invitation seems like an opening chess move in a larger pan-Pacific game that will help define his second term.
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