The winter meetings are over, Juan Soto is a New York Met and several names on this year’s free agent and trade market have been on the move. But as teams began to deviate from their original plans for this winter, the biggest problem soon became that there was no franchise-changing player available when Soto withdrew.
At least that was until Astros shortstop Kyle Tucker became available.
Since arriving in the big leagues in 2019, Tucker has been a force for the Astros and the true definition of a five-tool player. He owns a .274/.353/.516 slash line with 125 home runs and 94 stolen bases and is an elite defender in right field. Tucker had the best year of his career last season — with 23 homers in 79 games — before a broken tibia caused by a foul ball forced him to miss significant time.
In recent weeks, it appeared that the Astros were open to moving the star outfielder.
On Friday, the Astros traded Tucker to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for outfielder Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski and third base prospect Cam Smith.
This deal instantly makes Tucker the best player in Chicago. For Houston, Paredes has the option of playing third or first base with a pull that should play at Minute Maid Park. Wesneski is a versatile arm with good players who has played 68 games with 22 starts for the Cubs with a respectable career 3.93 ERA.
But the crown jewel of the trade for the Astros is Smith. The Cubs’ 2024 first-round pick was one of college baseball’s top hitters before Chicago took him 14th overall last year. He thrived in his first year in pro ball, hitting .313/.396/.609 with seven homers and 24 RBI and finished the year in Double-A.
What does this deal mean for the Astros?
The Astros have won a lot over the past decade, including two World Series titles. The only team that has won more games than Houston since 2015 is the Los Angeles Dodgers. But keeping their win window open for so long is worth it, which has made the Astros’ prospect pool pretty thin. Sources familiar with Houston’s thinking told Yahoo Sports that the hope was that trading Tucker could help supplement a farm system that has allowed the Astros to reach the ALCS in seven of the last eight seasons.
Once such a trade is completed, Paredes will immediately slot into the Astros’ outfield and lineup, and Wesneski could fill multiple roles for Houston, either in the bullpen or in the rotation, depending on how the rest of their offseason plays out. And with Smith ranked the Cubs’ No. 1 prospect by MLB Pipeline. 7, the Astros could land their third baseman of the future.
The other side of the equation for Houston was that team owner Jim Crane didn’t seem willing to go beyond six years on a contract offer for any player, whether it was Tucker or a free agent like Alex Bregman, whom the team would like to re-sign. Adding Paredes likely makes re-signing Bregman impossible, but Houston could theoretically move Paredes to first if they still want to keep their longtime star.
What does this mean for the cubs?
What the Cubs have lacked in recent years was a true, difference-making bat in the middle of their lineup. They haven’t had one since Kris Bryant. Now, Tucker provides just that – a player who can consistently produce on offense and carry a lineup for weeks at a time. And with other teams in the National League having game-changing players, including Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., Soto and Francisco Lindor and the Dodgers’ three MVPs, Chicago now has an answer.
Adding Tucker also immediately makes the Cubs better defensively. With Tucker likely in right field, Pete Crowe-Armstrong in center and Ian Happ in left, you can make the case that the Cubs have one of the best defensive outfields in baseball. What the team will do with outfielders Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki remains to be seen, but this deal gives Chicago some movable assets to continue improving the roster.
And after this trade, the Cubs have even more motivation to keep improving. Chicago’s next move will be to acquire one more starting pitcher; for starters, they’ve been active in the free agent and trade markets. Adding a high leverage arm or two to the bullpen is also an important need and could really seal what is shaping up to be an impressive winter for the Cubs.
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But there is one caveat
For the Cubs, the interest in acquiring Tucker has nothing to do with his talent, which ranks him among the top 10 players in MLB at best, and everything to do with his contract situation. The 27-year-old enters his final season under club control before hitting the free agent market next winter. With the Yankees and Soto, we just witnessed a cautionary tale about making such a move.
New York pulled the trigger on the Soto trade to get what they hoped would be the final piece of their championship puzzle, and they had great success going all the way to the World Series before falling to the Dodgers. Despite all of that, Soto decided to leave in free agency and sign with the Mets, leaving the Bronx Bombers with a big hole in their lineup.
Tucker’s entry into free agency after the 2025 season is a near certainty, according to sources. After Soto signed his record deal, players like Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is also set to become a free agent next winter, are even more motivated to let the free agent process play out with a potential $400 million cap hit. – At the end, they will receive a payment of 500 million.
The Cubs traded for Tucker knowing full well he could leave and sign elsewhere in 12 months. There’s no guarantee he’ll stay in Chicago, or even that they’ll have an advantage in free agent negotiations. For the Yankees, at least they still have a top five player in Aaron Judge after Soto’s departure, but the Cubs likely won’t have that type of security.
The trio of players the Cubs gave up represent a hefty price tag for a one-year rental. But it is understandable that the price was so high. Tucker is the type of player who can take a team over the top as a contender or — perhaps more aptly in Chicago’s case — take a playoff borderline team and push it into October. After Soto was signed, Tucker was the only available player with that ability.
However, the Cubs need to be sure they have the remaining pieces in place before the open house. Because they probably only get one shot with Tucker on their roster.