In the Lamar Jackson era, the Ravens excelled at beating NFC teams. They’ve only lost twice to No. 8 under center in the other conference — the thinking is that these NFC opponents don’t see Jackson regularly and have no idea how to defend him on game day.
That narrative was certainly in play on Sunday when Baltimore visited the Giants and did whatever they wanted. Jackson had his best fantasy game of the year in Week 15, throwing for five touchdowns and 65 rushing yards in a magnificent 36.10 afternoon. The Ravens cruised to a 35-14 victory, even covering a massive 16-point deficit.
The ball rarely hit the ground Sunday — Jackson completed 21 of 25 passes for 290 yards and no interceptions. Rashod Bateman (3-80-2) caught two touchdowns and Mark Andrews (2-24-1) had his first day. The other scores went to non-playable fantasy options – Justice Hill and Devontez Walker.
That’s the fantasy at times with the game around Baltimore — it’s a fragmented target tree and the volume often isn’t there. Zay Flowers (5-63-0) is usually open but lacks the opportunity to be targeted. It’s not uncommon for Jackson to land under 30 attempts. Baltimore has the fifth-lowest passing success rate in the league. The goal is to crush opponents with the running game and then rip their heart out with occasional plays in the passing game.
But with Jackson throwing five touchdowns outside the 10-yard line, Derrick Henry was the odd man out Sunday. He didn’t score a touchdown for the third straight game and had a season-low 67 yards. This falls as a fluke, and Henry will certainly need more against credible rivals Pittsburgh and Houston the next two weeks. But for Henry to achieve his fantasy projection, you always need that touchdown deodorant. He wasn’t targeted on Sunday and has just 13 catches on the year.
Jackson also needs a game against Pittsburgh next week. He is only 2-5 against the Steelers and lost to them a month ago (66.1 rating, only one touchdown). But those are tomorrow’s concerns. There’s a good chance Jackson led you to a playoff victory.
Veteran WRs are leaving
While Jackson in his prime was one of the star quarterbacks (only Josh Allen topped Jackson on Sunday), the two back nine receivers have taken control of the wide receiver. Davante Adams exploded for a 9-198-2 clinic against Jacksonville and Mike Evans visited the end zone twice against the Chargers.
The Jets aren’t going anywhere this year, but Adams has stepped up his game since the bye. He has scored in three straight games, putting together a respectable 23-373-4 line in that span. The Rams’ defense is balanced in Week 16. Maybe Aaron Rodgers will have some streaming value before this disappointing season ends.
Evans needed a strong finish to surpass the 1,000-yard mark for the 11th straight year, but Sunday’s clutch game yielded 159 yards, an excellent positive step. He’s already flashed me a ticket to the Hall of Fame. Tampa Bay was one of the league’s best carnival teams in 2024, and Dallas could be in contention for the score in next week’s game on Sunday night. Evans is the rare fantasy pick who has never been in the disappointment lineup — and he has time to make sure this season ends on a positive note.
Josh Allen brings it again
Sometimes I think there are three keys to winning fantasy football this year: draft well, work the wire and avoid Josh Allen. Buffalo’s MVP-in-waiting had another ridiculous day, shredding the Lions for four touchdowns (two through the air, two on the ground) to go with 362 yards passing and 69 yards rushing, once again atop the QB chart. That’s 93.16 fantasy points combined over the past two weeks.
Allen’s side is dreamy, but so is his floor. He had two QB1 completions in September and has been particularly consistent since Week 6: QB5, QB6 QB14, QB7, QB7, QB7, QB3, QB1 (record performance), QB1 (three games to go). Only boredom can stop Allen when he faces the Patriots and Jets in the next two weeks.
I always feel that Allen plays his best later in the season and that should carry over into the NFL playoffs when the games matter the most.
A mixed bag for the rest of the Bills passing game
While Buffalo’s offense is always run through Allen, his pass-catching projection is a tricky business. Consider Amari Cooper, who somehow had 14 targets (and a 6-95-0 line) last week, then wasn’t targeted for a win against the Lions. We learned to set our fantasy watches with a consistent Khalil Shakir (6-39-1) and the tight ends were useful (Dalton Kincaid had a solid 4-53-0 line), but how could we ever see Ty Johnson catch? five passes for 114 yards? Keon Coleman broke free for a 64-yard reception, but was only targeted twice.
Star running backs will come in short order
Allen essentially winning the 2024 MVP means Saquon Barkley can focus on the Offensive Player of the Year award. Barkley had a rare fantasy Sunday when he averaged four yards a pop and didn’t score a touchdown against Pittsburgh. Barkley’s touchdown run is always a little thin because the Eagles always send short touchdowns to Jalen Hurts (he had another on Sunday). Barkley’s 13 scores come from an average of 28.5 yards and he doesn’t have a single jump from the one-yard line (Hurts has 11).
Henry and Barkley weren’t the only veterans to stumble on Sunday. Joe Mixon was held to 23 yards on 12 carries against Miami. He didn’t even get a touchdown, though a 5-33-0 receiving line helped a bit. Mixon has miraculously overcome Houston’s weak offensive line for most of the year, but the streaks weren’t available on Sunday. His playoff schedule isn’t fun, with Kansas City and Baltimore waiting in the next two weeks.
Note: I will continue to add analysis from Week 15 as the night unfolds.