Tommy John has survived the dreaded wait many times since his debut on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot in 1995.
The former Dodgers southpaw — the first player to undergo what is now known as Tommy John surgery — remained eligible until 2009, but never received more than 31.7% of the 75% required to be elected. John then shuffled through the expansion era and modern baseball ballots twice, getting rejected by the voting committees.
On Sunday at 16:30 John will know the latest result after another vote.
Read more: Plaschke: Baseball fans may whine, but there’s nothing wrong with the Dodgers winning
“If I had a say, I would vote for me,” John said Friday in a telephone interview from his home in Florida. “But I don’t.”
John, along with Steve Garvey—a former Dodgers first baseman and 1974 National League MVP—are two of eight candidates on the ballot from the classic baseball era, which helps select overlooked players of past generations. John and Garvey wore Dodger blue together from 1972 to 1978.
The Historical Review Committee, named by the Baseball Writers of America Assn., compiles a classic baseball era ballot of players whose greatest hits occurred before 1980. Eligible players must have played 10 or more seasons.
dr. Frank Jobe first performed surgery on John’s left-handed elbow in 1974, giving birth to the ligament replacement procedure now common. The Hall of Fame honored Jobe and John together during the 2013 induction ceremony.
“I had the right doctor at the right time and I was in the right place,” John said. “I pitched and never missed a start after coming back.
While the now 81-year-old may be best known for the surgery, John spent 26 seasons in the majors, tying the record until Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan reached his 27th season. John, a four-time All-Star, posted a 288-231 record with a 3.34 earned run average, 2,245 strikeouts and 61.6 wins over replacement (WAR), according to Baseball Reference, with some of his best seasons coming at Chavez Ravine. .
“Twenty-six years, 288 victories and [an MLB-record] 188 no decisions,” John answered when asked how the committee should evaluate career longevity. “Your arm was in good shape and you must be doing something right or you wouldn’t be going there every five days.
Where John may struggle with voters, as he has in years past, are in strikeouts and wins over trades — lagging behind most previous candidates of his era.
Jay Jaffe, author of “The Cooperstown Casebook,” said the 3,000-strikeout mark is often tied to the 300-win milestone, making John’s candidacy less likely since he has neither.
“Maybe it depends in part on how much credit Tommy John deserves versus Dr. Frank Job?” said Jaffe, who has written about the Hall of Fame since 2001 and is the senior baseball writer at FanGraphs. “A guy who really had the technical expertise and imagination to do an operation.”
Jaffe added that while he is leaning toward John being denied the election, he hopes that if John is elected, it will be while he is still alive to attend the induction ceremony.
“I kept the arguments for over 20 years,” Jaffe said. “I’d rather he get in while he’s still here.
Garvey, on the other hand, is closer to a sure no, Jaffe said.
Garvey, who most recently lost his bid for a U.S. Senate seat, was a 10-time All-Star who hit .294 with 272 home runs over 19 seasons. He was a 1981 World Series champion and played in the legendary outfield from 1973 to 1981 alongside Ron Cey, Davey Lopes and Bill Russell.
“There’s a real waste position with how Garvey was traditionally valued in his day and how we see him now,” said Jaffe, who invented JAWS, the widely used wins-over-replacement metric for Hall of Fame evaluation. “When I looked at the dozens and dozens of other very good first men who followed in that wake who were more valuable … I kind of dismiss him as a candidate.”
But if it were up to John, he’d like to see himself and his former teammate in Cooperstown on Sunday.
“He was an excellent teammate,” John said of Garvey. “I’d be fine with that.”
Sign up for more Dodgers news with the Dodgers Dugout. Delivered at the beginning of each series.
This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.