As the Baltimore Ravens faced their fifth loss of the season, a familiar voice answered questions in the locker room.
NFL players don’t always meet with reporters after games. They are not always wanted. Their influence is often overlooked.
But for the seventh time this season, including all five of the Ravens’ losses, five-time All-Pro Justin Tucker fumbled.
He didn’t just miss once or twice. Tucker missed three times for the first time in 208 games in his career.
“I hate that I had to have the same conversation over the course of this season,” Tucker said after the Philadelphia Eagles’ 24-19 victory in Baltimore. “But that’s something that comes with the territory in this job description – kicks are either good or they’re not. And I didn’t do a good enough job today to help our team win the football game.
“I feel like this is what I’m costing us.”
In a simplified context-free vacuum, Tucker’s calculations add up. He missed two of his four field goal attempts and one of his two extra point attempts. The missed kicks, if made, would have put the Ravens up by seven in a game they lost by five.
Tucker, his teammates and his coaches know the explanation for their loss is not so simple. Tucker didn’t give up more than 100 scrimmage yards to Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, nor did he convert just 6 of 15 third down attempts while going more than 45 game minutes between touchdowns.
“He’s still the GOAT,” Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson said. “We should have put more points on the board, we shouldn’t have even put Tuck in those situations.”
“Hell yes, I have confidence. [in him].”
Trust is easy to defend. Tucker’s resume is the blueprint for NFL players’ dreams and guarantees the Hall of Fame. He saved the ravens hundreds of times in 13 years. But with Tucker’s tackles hitting a new low, the Ravens can’t simply erase his 10 sacks in a career-high 13 games.
Past performance is informative but not predictive. There is a psychological element to kicking that the team must honestly consider.
Through that lens, the Ravens have to ask themselves: Can they trust Tucker through the final four games of the regular season and into the playoffs? What distances should they take Tucker and how much insurance do they need?
What the Ravens should consider for Justin Tucker’s next moves
Like Tucker, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh deserves the benefit of the doubt with this decision. He’s not just a 17-year head coach with a Super Bowl title and a 61.7 career winning percentage.
Harbaugh is also the rare NFL head coach who has never coordinated an offense or defense. Instead, he cut his teeth as a special teams coordinator, overseeing the Eagles’ special teams unit for nine seasons. Harbaugh knows what it takes to coach a kicker — and it’s fair to assume he knows more than he let on during his postgame media conference.
What did he see about Tucker’s strike and his operation?
“I just saw those misses,” Harbaugh said. “I think we’ll go back and look at all that stuff and try to figure it out.” … He’s definitely capable of making every kick.”
Tucker’s latest performance didn’t just involve misses.
Against the Eagles, Tucker had a 34-yard field goal in the first quarter and a 50-yarder just before halftime. With three seconds left in the game, Tucker attempted another point to bring the Ravens within five points of Philadelphia.
Just as remarkable as the distance and success of his three brands are the moments in which he made each. Tucker didn’t miss forever after his errant kicks. He missed an extra point attempt in the first quarter and then made a 50-yarder. Tucker missed from 47 and 53 in the third quarter, but then hung up on an extra point attempt late in the game.
This pattern reflected Tucker’s performance throughout the season. He made all 10 of his field goal attempts less than 40 yards, compared to 9 of 17 from 40 or more. He has now made 42 of 44 extra point attempts.
The Ravens’ analytics staff will not eliminate punts when analyzing the probabilistic outcomes of each decision in the game.
Jackson said his confidence in his kicker stems in part from Tucker’s successful previous game, when he hit three extra point attempts and a 45-yard field goal with no mistakes in the win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Harbaugh similarly pointed to Tucker’s established arsenal of skills.
“I think when you look at Justin Tucker’s history, you’d have to say he’s capable of that,” Harbaugh said. “We need him to make those kicks. No one wants to do those kicks more than Justin, I promise you.
“He’ll be the first to tell you he needs to make as many kicks as he can.
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Possible trade for Tucker, Ravens
Harbaugh is right that Tucker looks physically and mentally capable of making a lot of kicks. His three Sundays, including from age 50, do not indicate a devastating injury or a debilitating hobble that completely destroys his strength or focus.
Tucker spoke with poise and responsibility on Sunday night about the need to consider hash and technology. He said his miss to the right reflected an inaccurate shot more than compensation for an earlier miss, and that he knows he shouldn’t dwell too deeply on the cost of his misses at the expense of improving his preparation.
“It’s pretty raw emotionally for me,” Tucker said. “Whenever we lose, especially for me because my performance today was just not up to our standards, it’s devastating. But at the end of the day, my feelings don’t really matter.
“What matters is: Get back to work and do everything I can to help this football team.”
What will help the Ravens the most should be the guiding factor for Harbaugh and the Ravens brass — even as their emotions and rich history with Tucker battle to guide the decisions.
Could the Ravens be reaching a point where they need to rethink 40-yard kicks? They’re not necessarily there yet, but in the week they’ve reached now, they should establish a formula where they need to adjust their decision-making to reflect their kicker’s current performance rather than his past performance. They should also work out the cleats, just in case Tucker’s accuracy slips further.
Tucker still proved more likely to make short and long kicks equally.
But the Ravens should think long and hard about their three losses by a margin smaller than the value of Tucker’s missed kicks.
Two weeks ago, Tucker missed 47 and 50 in what ended up being a two-point loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who currently lead the AFC North. The Ravens’ embarrassing Week 2 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders similarly came by just three points — and similarly included a 53-down fumble.
It is not yet time to sound the alarm or panic. But the Ravens should be considered. And in the coming days of a less emotionally charged bye week, create a framework that prepares the team for all outcomes.
On Sunday, Harbaugh indicated where that analysis has led so far.
“We’ve been working on it,” he said. “You work it out with every single player. Every single thing you fight for is trying to help guys be successful. We will do that.
“If you’re asking if we’re going to move on from Justin Tucker, I really don’t plan on it right now. I don’t think that would be wise.”