The keys to winning in week 12 fantasy football

The keys to winning in week 12 fantasy football

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Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri delivers the keys to victory in Week 12.

Smith is having his best week of the season. In Week 10, Smith produced 100 yards and two touchdowns on eight carries against the Raiders. Smith has now scored six or more goals in five of his last six games. That’s something only three other tight ends have done during that stretch. Smith now leads the Dolphins since Week 5 with a 21% target share. He also ranks third in yards per route and second in yards after the catch among TEs in that time.

Smith is a great reliever in Week 12. But there’s a chance there’s a lot more. He’s been one of the top two options in the Dolphins offense the last two months. Smith is closing in on being classified as a top 10 TE for the rest of the season. This week, he will face the Patriots, who are ranked No. 10 in coverage by PFF. Smith can be picked up and played this week.

Swift had another strong fantasy day in Week 11. He was able to produce more than 80 yards for the sixth time in his last seven games. As of Week 4, Swift ranks sixth in fantasy points per game among all players. That’s how good he was. But it wasn’t all good news for Swift in week 11. His baseline usage has actually gotten worse under new play-caller Thomas Brown. Linebacker Roschon Johnson shot a season-high 44% of the pucks and handled 100% of the two-minute offensive snaps and most of the touches on the goal line. That led to Swift seeing just 48% of the backfield coverage, his second-lowest mark in the game this year.

That’s not great, and neither is his game this week against the Vikings. Minnesota is allowing the second fewest rushing yards per game and in Week 11 only limited the Titans backfield to 15 yards on 12 carries. It’s hard to sit Swift with six teams on the bye, but temper your expectations in this tough matchup.

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Irving returns from his bye this week and finds himself in a big game. The Bucs are 5-point favorites against Tommy DeVito and the Giants. There’s a good chance New York is trailing in this game, which creates a positive game scenario for Irving to see more carries. But it gets even better because the Giants are struggling to defend the run. New York is allowing the most rushing yards per game this season, according to NFL Pro.

The Giants are also allowing the third most explosive runs of 10+ yards this season. This is a perfect matchup for Irving, who has an explosive drive with the 12th-highest pace in the league. Irving is also averaging 5.6 yards per touch this season and ranks third in broken tackles. He has a strong performance against the 49ers in Week 10, totaling 87 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. Expect that efficiency to continue with a strong game this week against the Giants, and there’s even a chance we’ll see his role increase in the bye week. Don’t be shocked to see the rookie earn the first 20-carry game of his career.

Robinson Jr. had one of the toughest games a running back can find last week, facing the No. 1 defense on a short week. 1 Eagles. Despite this tough spot, Robinson was able to produce over 70 total yards and a touchdown. The most impressive part was that it was Robinson’s first game back from hamstring and knee injuries. After those injuries, he came back and reclaimed his role as the commanding clear RB1, earning 67% of back carries, his second-best usage of the season.

Robinson enters Week 12 with a much better matchup against the Cowboys. Dallas ranks 30th in run defense according to PFF and allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game. Expect Robinson to carry the ball 16-plus times and push for 100 yards and a score. RB must start this week.

Jennings continues to function as the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver. In Week 11, he led the team with 10 catches for 91 yards and a score. He was consistently the first read on Brock Purdy in crucial situations. Jennings caught six of his 11 third downs last week. This is money down in the NFL – down where you lean on your best and most trusted player, and lately that’s been Jennings for the 49ers.

In three games this season with either Brandon Aiyuk or Deeb Samuel Sr., Jennings averaged 11.3 targets and 116 yards per game. He’s never seen fewer than 11 targets in any of those three contests and is the top receiver in fantasy games through those three weeks. This is still a small sample size, but it’s becoming clear that Jennings is the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver ahead of Samuel. This week, Jennings will face a Packers secondary that may not have cornerback Jair Alexander and just allowed Caleb Williams to complete 74% of his passes last week. Jennings is a borderline top-12 receiver this week and the rest of the season. Make sure he’s in your lineup even if Brock Purdy is out with a shoulder injury.

We have six teams waiting for us this week. Some top quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are unavailable to fantasy managers. A bye-week fill-in is needed, and Drake Maye is the perfect choice. Maye has finished as a top-10 QB in two of his five starts this season and has never finished worse than QB18 in any given week. That’s impressive for a rookie QB, but it’s even more impressive when you consider that his top receiver was Kayshon Boutte and he’s playing behind arguably the worst offensive line in the league.

Not to mention Maye has had to face the Titans and Bears defenses in two of the last three games. Both teams ranked in the top five in limiting opposing pass efficiency. But despite these tough struggles, Maye was able to find success. He completed 71% of his passes against the Titans and averaged a season-high 7.4 yards per attempt against the Bears. Maye is also coming off one of his better outings of the season, completing 75% of his passes for 309 total yards and two touchdowns against the Rams in Week 11.

His composure under pressure and strong surge make him a solid start to this week, even if the matchup against the Dolphins isn’t the best. If you need help at QB this week, pick up and play Maye as your bye-week fill-in.

Ridley had just four catches for 58 yards last week against the Vikings. It was his first game under 70 yards or eight carries since DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the Chiefs. In Week 11, Ridley averaged an elite 36% target share and 100 yards per game in the three games since Hopkins left the team. Ridley returned to the floor in Week 11, but still received a team-high 22% target share.

This week, Ridley looks to bounce back against the Texans as an eight-point underdog. The Titans should pull often in this one, which sets up nicely for Ridley to see more passing volume. Believe it or not, Will Levis has been solid since returning from injury. In Week 10 against the Chargers, he completed 78% of his passes and ranked in the top 10 in fantasy. Then in Week 11, Levis produced 295 yards, averaging 9.5 yards per attempt. His game is much better than what we had at the beginning of this season. The improved quarterback play and game script set Ridley up for a strong rebound in Week 12.

Evans is expected to return from injury this week. He missed the last three games with a hamstring injury, which he re-aggravated in Week 7 against the Ravens. Evans will return to face a Giants secondary that is ranked 16th by PFF this season. These aren’t bad secondaries by any means, but they aren’t great either.

New York is allowing the seventh-most explosive play on defense this season, and that bodes well for Evans, who has eight deep targets in five completed starts. Evans has finished as a top 10 receiver in three of his five starts and has a strong 23% target share in those five contests. However, that should only increase now that Chris Godwin is out this year.

Godwin has earned a 27% target share this season and when he’s off the field, Evans should be a 10+ target threat. That starts this week with a nice game against the Giants, but the good games will continue for the rest of the year. Evans will face the Panthers, Raiders and Cowboys twice over the next six weeks. All of those teams rank in the bottom 10 in the secondary this season, according to NFL Pro. Evans tends to rise at an ideal time as the fantasy playoffs approach.

Jones entered Week 11 with a rib injury. It was the fourth time this season that he suffered an injury that limited or knocked him out of practice the following week. Jones was limited in practice heading into Week 11, but was able to play Sunday. However, he has seen his worst usage in the completed game this season, earning just 55% snaps and 50% rush attempts.

Cam Akers was more involved for the Vikings in Week 11, converting 12 touches for 36 yards and a touchdown. Jones was likely limited in this game due to a rib injury, but there’s also a chance the Vikings will try to lighten his load moving forward. He turns 30 next month and has already battled rib, hamstring, hip and ankle injuries this season. Week 11 created plenty of questions for fantasy managers about Jones entering Week 12. Will his usage improve with another week of rest and recovery? Will Cam Akers remain heavily involved? This week against the Bears should answer many of those questions about Jones’ role for the rest of the season.

He’s still a top 20 RB this week, but I’d start Chuba Hubbard, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Brian Robinson Jr. over him right now.

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