By Gram Slattery and Jonathan Landay
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Donald Trump’s advisers are publicly and privately pouring out proposals to end the war in Ukraine that would leave large swaths of the country to Russia for the foreseeable future, according to a Reuters review of their statements and interviews with several people close to them. America’s president-elect.
The proposals of the three top advisers, including Trump’s incoming Russia-Ukraine ambassador, Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg of the military, share some elements, including getting Ukraine’s NATO membership on the table.
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Trump’s advisers would try to force Moscow and Kyiv into negotiations with carrots and sticks, including freezing military aid to Kyiv unless it agrees to talks but increasing aid if Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses.
Trump promised repeatedly during his election to end the nearly three-year war within 24 hours of his inauguration on January 20, if not before, but he has not said why.
Analysts and former national security officials say they doubt Trump can fulfill such a commitment because of the tension in the conflict.
Taken together, however, the advisers’ comments indicate the potential consequences of Trump’s peace plan.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, faced with labor shortages and loss of land, has shown that he may be open to negotiations.
While wanting to become a member of NATO, he said this week that Ukraine must find solutions to regain some of its territories.
But Trump may find Putin reluctant to act, analysts and former US officials said, as he has the Ukrainians behind him and would have more to gain by seeking another country.
“Putin is not in a hurry,” said Eugene Rumer, a former top US analyst on Russia who is now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank.
The Russian leader, he said, shows that he is not ready to abandon his conditions for the agreement and talks, including Ukraine abandoning its desire for NATO and giving the four regions that Putin calls part of Russia but does not fully control, a desire rejected by Kyiv.
Putin, said Rumer, will likely bide his time, take more ground and wait to see what, if any, deal with Trump he can offer to draw him to the negotiating table.
Reuters reported in May that Putin was ready to end the war with a negotiated ceasefire that recognized the front lines but was ready to fight if Kyiv and the West did not respond.
Russia already controls all of Crimea, which it unilaterally annexed from Ukraine in 2014 and since then has taken over 80% of Donbas – which consists of Donetsk and Luhansk – as well as more than 70% of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and small parts of. places Mykolaiv and Kharkiv.
MANY OTHER PLANS
As of last week, Trump had yet to convene the central group to implement a peace plan, according to four advisers who asked not to be identified to describe the private talks. Instead, several advisers have pitched advice to each other in public forums and — in some cases — to Trump, he said.
Ultimately, a peace deal is likely to depend on direct cooperation between Trump, Putin and Zelenskiy, the advisers said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said “it is impossible to comment on what someone said without knowing the full plan.”
Trump’s spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, said that Trump said he would “do what is necessary to restore peace and rebuild America’s strength and defense around the world.”
Trump’s representative did not immediately respond to a follow-up question about whether the president-elect still plans to address the controversy within the day of taking office.
The Ukrainian government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
A former Trump national security official involved in the change said there were three main requests: a presentation by Kellogg, one from Vice President-elect JD Vance and one raised by Richard Grenell, Trump’s former intelligence chief.
Kellogg’s plan, co-authored with former National Security Council chief Fred Fleitz and presented to Trump earlier this year, seeks to halt the current battle lines.
Kellogg and Fleitz did not respond to requests for comment. Their plan was first reported by Reuters.
Trump would give more US weapons to Kyiv only if it agreed to peace talks. At the same time, he would warn Moscow that he would increase US aid to Ukraine if Russia refused to negotiate. Ukraine’s NATO membership would be suspended.
Ukraine would also be given US security guarantees, which could include increased weapons use after the deal, according to the proposal.
In a June interview with Times Radio, a British digital channel, Sebastian Gorka, one of Trump’s national security advisers, said Trump told him he would force Putin into talks by threatening an unprecedented arms shipment to Ukraine if Putin refused.
Gorka, reached by phone, called Reuters “fake news garbage” and declined to elaborate.
Vance, a US senator opposed to aid to Ukraine, floated a different idea in September.
He told US podcaster Shawn Ryan that the deal would likely include a demilitarized zone along existing lines that would be “highly reinforced” to prevent further Russian interference. His proposal would deny NATO membership to Kyiv.
Vance’s representatives did not make him available for comment, and he has not provided further information.
Grenell, Trump’s former ambassador to Germany, suggested the creation of “autonomous zones” in eastern Ukraine during a Bloomberg round table in July but did not elaborate. He also said that Ukraine’s NATO membership was not in America’s interest.
Grenell, who did not respond to a request for comment, has yet to secure a position in the new administration, although he still has Trump’s ear on European affairs, a senior Trump foreign policy adviser told Reuters.
That person said Grenell was one of the few people at the September meeting in New York between Trump and Zelenskiy.
PUSHBACK IS POSSIBLE
Some of these proposals may face pushback from Zelenskiy, who made the NATO invitation part of his “Victory Plan”, and from the European Union and some US lawmakers, say analysts and former national security officials.
Last week, Ukraine’s foreign minister sent a letter to its NATO allies urging them to submit a letter inviting them to join the meeting of foreign ministers on Tuesday.
Some European partners have expressed their willingness to increase aid to Ukraine and the US President, Mr. Joe Biden, is continuing to send weapons. This could cost Trump more money to push Kyiv to the table.
The Kellogg plan, which hinges on increasing aid to Ukraine if Putin doesn’t come to the table, could face Congress, where some of Trump’s closest allies oppose military aid to the Eastern European nation.
“I don’t think anybody has a plan to end this,” said Rumer, a former US intelligence official.
(Reporting by Gram Slattery and Jonathan Landay in Washington; Additional reporting by Tom Balmforth in Kyiv and Guy Faulconbridge in Moscow; Editing by Ross Colvin and Howard Goller)