For simply the fifth time in NFL historical past and solely the third within the Tremendous Bowl period (since 1966), there can be at the least three video games in Week 11 or later that includes groups with a 70% win share or higher.
One already went down on “Thursday Night time Soccer” with the Philadelphia Eagles enhancing to 8-2 after defeating the Washington Commanders, who fell to 7-4. Two different such video games are in retailer this week with the Baltimore Ravens (7-3) on the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) and the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (9-0) on the Buffalo Payments (8-2).
We’ve got stunning outcomes projected right here in our newest crop of CBS Sports activities NFL daring predictions for these two video games, plus three different matchups. Let’s dig in.
Titans upset Vikings behind stingy protection
Are the 7-2 Minnesota Vikings an actual contender? Or are they frauds? Since their Week 6 bye week, they’re 2-2 with losses in opposition to the Detroit Lions (31-29) and the Los Angeles Rams (30-20) and slim wins in opposition to the just lately benched Joe Flacco and the Indianapolis Colts (21-13) and the Mac Jones-led Jacksonville Jaguars (12-7).
With their Week 10 street win on the 2-8 Jaguars, the 2024 Vikings turned the primary group to win a sport with no touchdowns and three or extra turnovers because the 2006 Inexperienced Bay Packers, who did so in opposition to Minnesota. NFL groups had misplaced 195 straight video games with no touchdowns and three extra turnovers. Quarterback Sam Darnold was answerable for all three giveaways with three interceptions, and he now has six passing touchdowns and 9 turnovers in his previous 5 video games after 11 touchdowns and 4 turnovers in his first 4 video games. He now leads the NFL with 13 turnovers this season, and averages the third-most turnovers per sport (1.11) in his profession amongst lively QBs with at the least 50 begins. He trails solely Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (1.14 turnovers per sport) and Cleveland Browns quarterback Jameis Winston (1.27 turnover per sport).
Darnold will not get away together with his turnover drawback in Week 11 in opposition to the 2-7 Tennessee Titans. Their protection is permitting the second-fewest whole yards per sport this season (273.6), which implies Darnold will seemingly should march the Vikings offense down the sphere with out too many big-shot performs. Tennessee may play maintain away behind the energy of operating again Tony Pollard and its floor sport. Pollard’s 666 dashing yards this season are the Eleventh-most within the NFL, and he leads the league in yards after contact per rush (3.77), amongst these with at the least 100 carries this season. The Titans drive Minnesota to really feel the implications of its sloppy play, sending them again dwelling with a loss.
Ravens beat Steelers, drop 30 on NFL’s No. 2 scoring protection
The winner between the Ravens and Steelers on Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh can be in sole possession of first place within the AFC North. In current historical past, the Steelers have had a decisive edge, profitable seven of the final eight however all by one rating.
This time round, the Ravens are going to win, and they will accomplish that emphatically by scoring at the least 30 factors on the Steelers protection that’s permitting the second-fewest factors per sport in your complete NFL (16.2). All-Professional T.J. Watt has 4 pressured fumbles this season, which is tied for essentially the most within the league with San Francisco 49ers linebacker Fred Warner getting into Week 11.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson’s previous in opposition to the Steelers is ugly: he has misplaced three of his 4 begins in opposition to the Steelers with 4 whole touchdowns and 10 turnovers whereas registering a 66.4 passer ranking in 4 begins, his worst in opposition to any NFL group. None of that can matter in opposition to the Steelers on Sunday. The Ravens offense is on a historic run, averaging 7.1 yds/play this season, essentially the most within the Tremendous Bowl period (since 1966).
Why? As a result of Jackson and operating again Derrick Henry are on tempo to rewrite the historical past books. Jackson is on tempo to register the very best single-season passer ranking in NFL historical past (123.2) and is main the NFL in practically each passing metric this season. He’s additionally on tempo to change into the primary participant in NFL historical past with at the least 4,000 passing yards and 800 passing yards this season since he’s in line to throw for 4,537 yards and run for 914 yards getting into Week 11, per CBS Sports activities Analysis.
|
Completion Pct |
69.1%* |
seventh |
| Move Yards | 2,669 | 2nd |
|
Move Yards/Att |
9.3* |
1st |
|
Move TD |
24* |
T-1st |
|
TD-INT |
24-2* |
1st |
|
Passer Ranking |
123.2* |
1st |
| Anticipated Factors Added/Play | 0.31* | 1st |
* Profession excessive
Henry is the primary participant since Professional Soccer Corridor of Famer Terrell Davis (1998) to steer the NFL in carries (184), dashing yards (1,120), yards per carry and dashing touchdowns (12) by way of Week 10. He’s additionally on tempo to register profession highs in yards per carry (6.1) and dashing touchdowns (20). This backfield can’t be stopped, even by the stout Steelers protection.
Payments hand Chiefs first lack of 2024, snap Ok.C.’s 15-game profitable streak
It is one of many soccer world’s favourite instances of the 12 months: the AFC’s battle of Goliaths between Patrick Mahomes and his unbeaten Chiefs and Josh Allen and his AFC East-leading Payments has arrived in Week 11. Mahomes’ Chiefs are unbeaten, but it surely’s by the bottom level differential (+58) of any 9-0 group in NFL historical past.
Mahomes has performed as poorly as he ever has in his eight-season profession together with his fewest landing passes (12) and worst passer ranking (90.3) by way of 9 video games of a season in his profession, however the Chiefs maintain stumbling their approach to victories.
Nonetheless, this sport can be gained be Allen triumphing over Chiefs four-time Tremendous Bowl champion defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and his blitz-happy protection. Kansas Metropolis blitzes on 36.9% of opponent dropbacks, the third-highest price within the NFL this season, and so they have essentially the most defensive whole anticipated factors added (41.45) when blitzing in your complete league this season, per TruMedia. On the flip aspect, Allen has thrown for 705 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and no interceptions vs. the blitz in 2024, which provides him essentially the most passing touchdowns in opposition to the blitz in your complete league this season, per NFL Professional Insights.
A key consider Allen’s success in opposition to the blitz is his extra buttoned-up play model. As an alternative of scrambling and chasing the deep ball, he has thrown the ball faster and shorter than ever earlier than. That is why he started 2024 on a seven-game interception-free streak. The Payments offensive line stability can also be huge. The Payments are solely one among two groups to have the identical offensive line beginning 5 in each sport of 2024, together with the San Francisco 49ers, per CBS Sports activities Analysis, and so they have essentially the most offensive snaps performed of any five-man offensive line mixture. The lineup of left deal with Dion Dawkins, left guard David Edwards, middle Connor McGovern, proper guard O’Cyrus Torrence and proper deal with Spencer Brown has 547 offensive snaps collectively.
|
Common Move Size (Yards) |
7.7 |
Shortest |
|
Common Time To Throw |
2.84 |
Quickest |
|
Turnover/Recreation |
0.6 |
Fewest |
|
Rush YPG |
26.1 |
Fewest |
Allen can and can win in opposition to Spagnuolo and his signature blitz packages at hand the Chiefs their first lack of 2024 in Week 11.
Packers QB Jordan Love ends seven-game interception streak vs. elite Bears move protection
Many individuals liken Inexperienced Bay Packers beginning quarterback Jordan Like to his future Corridor of Fame predecessor Aaron Rodgers due to eerily related mechanics and ball placement at instances. Nonetheless, he’s at the moment enjoying extra like Rodgers’ Corridor of Fame predecessor Brett Favre. Love possesses a seven-game interception streak for the time being, the longest streak by a Packers quarterback since Favre’s 12-game streak that stretched throughout the 2005 and 2006 seasons.
Love’s 15 landing passes are tied for the eighth-most within the NFL this season with Rodgers and his 10 interceptions are tied for the essentially the most within the league this season with Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith and Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold. Love can also be the primary participant since former Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck in 2015 to have at the least 15 landing passes and at the least 10 interceptions within the first seven video games of a season, per CBS Sports activities Analysis.
Nonetheless, Love’s streak ends in Week 11 on the Chicago Bears. It is a daring prediction as a result of Chicago has one of many NFL’s finest defenses, rating both as a high 10 or high 5 unit in a number of, key move protection metrics.
|
PPG Allowed |
18.6 |
seventh |
|
Completion Pct Allowed |
61.6 |
fifth |
|
Move YPG Allowed |
190.4 |
seventh |
|
TD-INT Allowed |
6-8 |
third |
|
Passer Ranking Allowed |
77.4 |
2nd |
Matt LaFleur has a 10-0 document in opposition to Chicago since turning into Inexperienced Bay’s coach in 2019, which is tied for the longest profitable streak in collection historical past with one other Packers 10-game profitable streak led by Mike Holmgren and Brett Favre from 1994-1998. In Love’s two wins in opposition to Chicago final season, he threw for 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. He’ll proceed that stage of play in Chicago on Sunday and finish his seven-game interception streak in opposition to the top-tier Bears secondary.
Maxx Crosby’s sackless streak will get prolonged to a few video games after failing to take down Tua Tagovailoa
Las Vegas Raiders three-time Professional Bowl edge rusher Maxx Crosby is having one other Professional Bowl-caliber 12 months. His 6.5 sacks are tied for thirteenth within the NFL whereas his 11 tackles for loss and 4 batted passes are each tied for the third-most in every metric this season.
Nonetheless, he’s at the moment sackless in every of his final two video games. That streak will lengthen to a few in opposition to Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins regardless of Crosby’s pass-rush chops. Whereas Tagovailoa has three batted passes in his final three begins, he has solely been sacked on 5.5% of his dropbacks, which is the ninth lowest price in your complete NFL. Even worse information for Crosby is Tagovailoa’s common time to throw of two.53 seconds is the quickest within the NFL this season.
Crosby is elite, however he will not finish his sackless streak in Week 11.