Two weeks in the past was the fiftieth anniversary of The Rumble within the Jungle, and all the bouquets being laid on the toes of that traditional heavyweight championship boxing match between Muhammad Ali and George Foreman obtained me occupied with — of all issues — this weekend’s heavyweight championship combat at UFC 309.
What is the connection? It has to do with how diminished expectations do not at all times foreshadow actuality.
Ali’s upset of Foreman is remembered right this moment as one of many combat recreation’s biggest moments. Nonetheless, going into the 1974 bout, it was virtually universally anticipated to be a bloodbath by “Massive George,” the brawny, harmful, undefeated 25-year-old champion. Ali was 3½ years faraway from his championship run and was 32. If he was nonetheless floating like a butterfly, it was a sluggish, much less elusive float that appeared destined to be swatted down by one in all Foreman’s sledgehammer fists.
The Corridor of Fame boxing public relations man Invoice Caplan, who labored the occasion, famously stated, “Folks had been praying earlier than the combat that Ali does not get killed.”
After which Ali went out and shocked each a type of folks.
Now, nobody is suggesting that Saturday’s UFC 309 most important occasion between champion Jon Jones and former champ Stipe Miocic (ESPN+ PPV, 10 p.m. ET) is comparable in magnitude to one of the vital iconic sporting occasions of the previous half-century. The place the 2 fights do align, although, is that the one this weekend at Madison Sq. Backyard in New York additionally has its doubters, a lot of them.
Miocic is 42 years outdated and has not fought since March 2021, when Francis Ngannou knocked him out to remove the UFC title. And within the years since then, the heavyweight division has been in flux. Ngannou left in 2022 to pursue his dream of professional boxing, and when he returned to MMA this 12 months, it was within the PFL. To fill the void within the UFC, Jones moved up from mild heavyweight, the place he had dominated for a decade, and in March 2023, he received the vacant title in his heavyweight debut towards Ciryl Gane. However that was over a 12 months and a half in the past, and the champ has been idle — partially as a result of damage — ever since.
The heavyweight to observe throughout all this time has been Tom Aspinall. For the reason that final time we noticed Miocic, Aspinall has received 5 fights, all by end, all within the first spherical. And but, on Saturday, the Brit can be simply sitting and watching. In his possession can be a UFC interim title belt, a trinket whose sole goal is to arrange a champ-vs.-champ unification bout. That is the combat that’ll really settle issues within the heavyweight division, however for now, the main target is on a legacy.
What the UFC 309 most important occasion will ship is a monumental dose of historical past. Jones is the consensus biggest MMA fighter of all time in any weight class. Miocic is essentially the most completed UFC heavyweight ever, an indeniable standing he earned by making a file three consecutive title defenses. Three may not look like an enormous quantity, however not one of the belt-wearing heavyweight luminaries of the previous reached it — not Ngannou or Cain Velasquez, Brock Lesnar or Randy Couture.
So, the components are there for a Rumble-like shocker. Can Miocic mud off his outdated kind and reclaim the title that when was his? Or will this be yet one more present of supremacy so as to add to the wonderful Jones résumé? That’s the weekend’s headlining storyline, however there are others. Listed below are 5 questions for UFC 309 to reply.
1. Does it matter that this most important occasion did not happen 5 years in the past?
Heavyweight championship: Jon Jones (c) vs. Stipe Miocic
Think about if Jones and Miocic met in, say, the summer season of 2019. Miocic had simply secured his second heavyweight reign by knocking out Daniel Cormier. Jones was within the midst of his second run as mild heavyweight champ, having already made 10 title defenses. Each males had been lively and on the high of their recreation. It will have been a real superfight.
That isn’t the truth of right this moment, in fact, however the heavyweight division is one that allows getting old fighters to find a fountain of youth. Couture received the UFC title at age 44, and Cormier held it at 40. Miocic was just some months shy of age 39 the night time he misplaced the strap to Ngannou. So whereas a title matchup like Saturday’s, between a 37-year-old champion and 42-year-old challenger, would not fly at flyweight, it will probably work at heavyweight. This division is dominated by the sustainable attributes of energy and sturdiness, the place velocity issues, however one can compensate for its diminishment.
2. Lets waltz once more since your dance associate stood you up?
Light-weight: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler 2
This rematch of a 2021 bout that ended with an Oliveira knockout is the one different combat that pits star versus star. The attraction could be diminished as a result of we have already seen this matchup play out decisively. Nonetheless, if you happen to noticed Oliveira-Chandler 1, you witnessed a fascinating back-and-forth tussle for the vacant light-weight title.
What are the stakes this time? That is unclear, particularly for Oliveira, as champ Islam Makhachev seems to be lined as much as defend subsequent towards Arman Tsarukyan, who was final seen defeating Oliveira in April.
At stake for Chandler? Cash, a lot of it. If he loses to Oliveira, he can say goodbye to the combat he spent two idle years holding out for. If Conor McGregor returns, he is not going to wish to accomplish that towards an opponent coming off 4 defeats in his previous 5 fights. That makes this a high-risk roll of the cube for Chandler.
3. Are there grounds for optimism that we’ll see an actual combat?
Middleweight: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
This combat will in all probability be a blowout — the ESPN BET oddsmakers definitely count on it to be, putting in Nickal as a -1300 betting favourite. However there may be one space of intrigue, and that space is on the mat. Simply six fights into his MMA profession, Nickal is engaged on rounding out his recreation, however his go-to stays the smothering wrestling that made him a three-time NCAA Division I nationwide champion. Going to the canvas has been an issue for Nickal’s previous opponents, however a grappling match would play proper into Craig’s energy, because the Scotsman has 13 submissions amongst his 17 victories.
Then once more, victories of any sort have been exhausting to return by currently for Craig, who has misplaced 4 of his previous 5. Can he put up a combat even when this one goes to his wheelhouse, or will he be only one extra steppingstone in Nickal’s ascent within the sport?
4. Will anybody ever really feel as a lot at house within the Octagon?
Light-weight: Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson
Saturday’s contest versus Jackson can be Miller’s forty fifth combat within the UFC, extending a file he’ll personal for a few years to return. The closest to him amongst lively fighters are Clay Guida and Rafael dos Anjos, with 36 fights apiece, and Guida is 42 years outdated, Dos Anjos is 40. They don’t seem to be catching up. Miller, whose 26 wins are also a UFC file, has been preventing contained in the Octagon since 2008, and he is by no means been something lower than entertaining. Why cease watching now?