As recently as a week ago, the SEC claimed it deserved five teams in this year’s College Football Playoff. There have already been suggestions where the league (along with the Big Ten) would receive four automatic bids in future years.
If you want to know the nightmare scenario for the 12-team SEC field in 2024, it’s this: just two teams.
Yes, two.
The College Football Playoff committee released its latest rankings on Tuesday, and the cake is starting to get closer to being baked when it comes to who’s in and who’s out.
After a disastrous weekend for the SEC that saw home underdog Florida, Oklahoma and Auburn upset playoff contenders Ole Miss, Alabama and Texas A&M, the league is down to just three teams in its current division.
Texas, the presumptive SEC champion, is No. 2. Georgia, which has already clinched a spot in the SEC title game, is No. 8. Tennessee is seeded ninth and would play in Athens in the opening round.
Alabama (13), Ole Miss (14) and South Carolina (15) sit on the outside looking in, stuck with three losses.
Here’s how it could go wrong for the SEC:
No. 20 Texas A&M (8-3) defeated Texas on Saturday in College Station. The loss drops Texas to 10-2, but without a single win over a ranked opponent. The committee will drop the Longhorns from the third spot in the rankings all the way out.
Texas A&M advances to the SEC title game, but loses to Georgia to finish the season 9-4. The Aggies would be out.
That means Georgia has an automatic bid and was ranked second overall. Meanwhile, Tennessee (10-2 if it can beat Vanderbilt) is safely in the field and likely to host a first-round game.
But that’s all.
There would be a vacancy for someone to jump into (the one Texas gave up), but right now the committee likes No. 12 Clemson over Alabama (9-3 if they beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl this weekend) and Ole Miss ( 9- 3 if he makes it through the state of Mississippi in an egg bowl).
Meanwhile, Clemson hosts No. 15 South Carolina. Should the Tigers beat the Gamecocks, then Clemson will be the team best positioned to move up.
Of course, South Carolina could win and secure an impressive victory, but would the committee move them ahead of Alabama and Ole Miss, who both beat the Gamecocks earlier in the season?
Either way, the SEC could really use some help.
A Notre Dame loss at USC and being eliminated would vacate one bid. A Miami loss at Syracuse could do that, too, as it would end the possibility of an ACC title game with 11-1 SMU against the 11-1 Canes — a matchup of one-loss teams where even the loser could remain in the field.
Be that as it may, the SEC unexpectedly overreached.
The league likes to point out its depth of quality. It’s not bad. There are more good teams in this league than any other, including the Big Ten, which is very tough.
It also means that a lot of teams are beating each other, so the losses are piling up. How does the commission take all this into account? So far, he doesn’t seem impressed with this argument, although it has been known to change course in the final assessment.
Consider Alabama, the Zombie Tide, who looked dead after an ugly 24-3 loss at Oklahoma last weekend. The Tide has three losses, including two bad ones (Vanderbilt and Sooners). They also have three wins over currently ranked teams — Georgia, South Carolina and No. 21 Missouri.
What matters more?
Or consider South Carolina, which has lost three games (LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama) but played extremely well the last five weeks. A win at Clemson would give the Gamecocks three wins over CFP ranked teams (Clemson, Texas A&M and Missouri). The Gamecocks also crushed Oklahoma 35-9.
Indiana (11-1 if it beats Purdue) wouldn’t get such a win over a ranked team. Penn State (11-1 if it beats Maryland) would have just one – no. 23 Illinois.
What matters more?
No one knows that, maybe not even the commission. And, of course, there can only be widespread chaos and unrest this weekend, making all the worrying and politicking pointless. Just a week ago, Tennessee looked outside. Now the Vols control their destiny and can still host a playoff game.
The SEC is a big and powerful force in college football, albeit in a sport that has long followed the golden rule — those with the gold make the rules.
A three-bid SEC season wouldn’t go down well in Birmingham. Double offer? Who knows what they are doing.
That’s the current system, and according to the committee’s latest smoke signals, it’s these — just in case Texas at Texas A&M, not to mention South Carolina at Clemson, might matter even more.