Two weeks ago, when Josh Allen somehow weaved his way through six different Kansas City Chiefs defenders for a 26-yard touchdown — on a critical fourth-and-2 — the Buffalo Bills quarterback cut his NFL MVP ballot. Suddenly, what had been a question mark turned into an exclamation point: Allen cemented the Chiefs’ first loss of the season in cinematic fashion, leaving CBS broadcaster Jim Nance to capture the eager excitement of many watching the moment unfold.
“AND THERE HE GOES! …. OHHHHHHHH NFL PLAY OF THE YEAR!” Nance yelled.
If Allen hadn’t been in every MVP conversation by then, it wouldn’t have been possible to deny him to the rest. The only question (and this is always paramount in the MVP race) was whether Allen could capitalize on the momentum moving forward. On Sunday, in a classically framed December blizzard against the San Francisco 49ers, he responded forcefully. Not only by dominating a 35-10 win, but by producing the first touchdown “hat trick” by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era — throwing, catching and rushing for a score against the 49ers. That included a touchdown pass that Allen threw to himself in an incredibly impromptu moment that left the NBC broadcast booth with Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth howling in disbelief.
In a close race, the MVP can be knocked out in moments like this. Predictably, that has now set the stage for this week’s award debate, the latest twist in what is shaping up to be one of the most riveting votes in recent memory. Despite five weeks of football remaining, a trio of front-runners that include Allen, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley are still on the table. Lest we forget, each of these stars conjured up different “race over” moments.
Just over a week ago, Barkley held the Los Angeles Rams to 255 rushing yards — and 302 yards from scrimmage — and got back on track to challenge the league’s single-season rushing record … which is 40 years old and counting. Like Allen this week, this was met with a chorus of “now give him the MVP” and “stop the race.” A week later, Allen responded. Of course, Barkley’s MVP case goes beyond one game or even one hallowed NFL record.
Despite having at least eight “tush push” touchdowns on the goal line, quarterback Jalen Hurts was still the engine of the Eagles offense in the second half of this season. In the second half, he has an absurd 982 yards rushing in 12 games, which ranks him ahead of 30 others. whole teams. His fourth quarters are even better, with 481 yards on 7.4 yards per carry in that frame. When the Eagles need him most, Barkley has done it at a historic pace. Just like he did with his 25-yard fourth-quarter touchdown Sunday that helped the Eagles put away the Ravens in a game bathed in postseason intensity.
Analytics aside, this type of moment is why Barkley will get serious MVP consideration.
The same goes for Jackson. Just three weeks ago, he was so far ahead of the MVP field that there were doubts anyone could get back into the race. Then the Ravens lost two of their last three games while facing playoff-caliber opponents — and Jackson’s production declined in all three games — and suddenly the race had new life.
But the losses and the drop in production don’t really speak to how vital Jackson was.
Yes, his stats can potentially top his absurd 2019 MVP season. That alone would put him at the top of almost any NFL season. But it’s his value to this Ravens team that is so amazing. Virtually all of the success in Baltimore’s 8-5 record is built on Jackson and running back Derrick Henry. Kicker Justin Tucker is struggling through the most unreliable season of his career, the Ravens defense is a shadow of its former self, and Jackson has been betrayed at times by a number of receivers that equate to Zay Flowers and nothing else. Overall, the Ravens’ defensive and special teams EPA ranks 29th in the league. That gives you an idea of what – or more to the point – who – this team carries.
For Barkley and Jackson, those arguments must be weighed. Not to mention the rest of the plan, in which Allen hit some turbulence and remixed a whole range of arguments. Not that Allen should, mind you. Most of the Bills’ remaining schedule is cake, including a three-game season capper that includes two games against the 3-9 New England Patriots around a 3-9 New York Jets team. Meanwhile, Jackson will see two likely playoff teams in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans, while Barkley will also get the Steelers and Washington Commanders.
Among the three, Allen still has the biggest “stage” moment — coming on Dec. 15 on the road against the Detroit Lions in what’s shaping up to be one of the most anticipated games of this entire regular season. Not only does it put Allen on the field with another guy who has his own MVP case, Lions quarterback Jared Goff, but it pits him against a Detroit defense that is horribly depleted by injuries and ripe for a late-season shootout. If Allen requires some kind of closing argument to get his stats into the neighborhood of Jackson’s gaudy letter, he certainly has the setup … aside from his last three games played in December weather (two in Buffalo and the third in Foxborough ). And as far as analysts are concerned, Allen also leads all NFL quarterbacks in a key “stats-wise” metric: EPA (expected points added) per game vs. WPA (win probability added) per game, edging out Jackson, Goff, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and every other heavy hitter this season.
So far, it’s all rubbish in the MVP argument. Today’s full campaign for Allen, on the heels of an iconic play in the snow and the quarterback’s first hat trick, could shift back to Jackson over the next five weeks as we dissect the deep value aspects of both players to their respective teams. Or it could tilt toward Barkley, who could break the decades-old season record while sparking a running back renaissance across the NFL.
In many ways, the MVP race really begins now. And it promises to be one of the best we’ve ever seen.