Quarterback
Start: Baker Mayfield, Bucs
Mayfield gets a phenomenal matchup with the Raiders this week. Vegas ranks 26th in the EPA for every down allowed, and their opponents have taken advantage of that at an above-expected rate that now rivals what the Ravens have faced. On the other hand, Vegas has given up the seventh most fantasy points to opposing passers. Mayfield is QB6 in points per game and could move up after Week 14.
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Start: Will Levis, Titans
Levis played much better (for fantasy purposes) after an extended injury absence that wasn’t affected at all by his previous poor play. Since returning, Levis has averaged 240 yards and 17.5 fantasy points per game. However, Levis did not lose his aggressive streak after the break. Over the past month, he is eighth in deep throw rate and second in PFF’s passing class in deep throws. Jacksonville ranks 31st in YPA on deep throws allowed and has given up the fourth-most explosive passing game on the year.
Sitting: Kirk Cousins, Falcons
Cousins will get a nightmare this week with the Vikings blitz defense. The Vikings’ aggressive defensive philosophy allows them to get to the quarterback in record time. They rank fifth in quick pressure rate and unlocked pressure rate. Cousins has the third-highest turnover rate when under pressure for less than 2.5 seconds and is ranked 18th by PFF in that circumstance. He was terrible against all types of pressures this year, ranking outside the top 20 in PFF’s passing class on the back of a top-five turnaround-worthy play.
Sportsbooks see this as a problem for Cousins as well. The Falcons opened the week as slight road favorites. They are now 5.5 points weaker. Their 20-point implied team total is lower than offenses led by Cooper Rush and Will Levis.
Sitting: Justin Herbert, Chargers
This brings me no pleasure, but it’s not a great week for Herbert’s fantasy outlook. Vegas has the underdog Bolts on the road with a 19.75 team total. The Chargers had a +3% completion percentage over expected in the four games coming out of their bye. They have not reached this mark even once in the last four games. During that stretch, they have a PROE of -1%, which is pushed into the red in a tough matchup against Tennessee.
The arch rivals have had a negative PROE this year and the game itself has an incredibly low total of 43 points. All signs point to an ugly environment in which Herbert scored on Sunday.
Running back
Start: Isaac Guerenedo, 49 years old
The 49ers racked up 18.3 sacks and 1.4 sacks per game in Jordan Mason’s seven starts before Christian McCaffrey’s return. Both CMC and Mason are out for the year, leaving the role to Guerenda alone. The only other tight ends on the roster are Israel Abanikanda, who was recently waived and subsequently claimed, and practice squad tight end Patrick Taylor. Guerendo is a fourth-round rookie who posted jaw-dropping numbers at the combine.
His team is favored by 3.5 points at home this week. With six teams on the bye, Guerendo is flirting with an RB1 rating in his first start.
Start: Braelon Allen, Jets
Breece Hall is listed as questionable, a designation he has failed to play. That leaves Allen and fellow rookie Isaiah Davis in New York’s backcourt. Davis saw his first carry in over a month last week when he caught all three of his targets. He will likely see work on passing downs, with Allen getting most of the carries. The Dolphins have faced below-average success this year, as expected, and are giving up the 11th-most fantasy tight ends to running backs. Allen, who PFF graded as a top-15 running back, should be able to take advantage of the game on Sunday.
Seated: Gus Edwards, Chargers
Edwards didn’t do much in his first start with JK Dobbins. He ran six times for 32 yards and caught one pass. Edwards saw just 35 percent of the Chargers’ drives and ran a route on 32 percent of Herbert’s snaps. Edwards is near or at the bottom of the league in every increasing efficiency metric and now cedes the work to rookie Kimani Vidal, who had four carries in Week 13. The game against the Chiefs is not a place to dial it down. RB3.
Sitting: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
The Panthers have played the role of plucky underdog admirably over the past month, but the house of cards is about to come tumbling down. The Panthers are 13-point dogs for the Eagles, and their 16.5 implied team total is easily the lowest of the week. Hubbard began handing a meaningful share of the backcourt work to Jonathon Brooks in Week 13. The rookie logged 29 percent of Carolina’s carries. Hubbard’s share fell to 57 percent, his lowest mark since Week 3.
Brooks earned more work by how well he played. Hubbard is still the clear starter in Carolina, but his declining workload will be tough to handle in a bad matchup with Philly.
Wide receiver
Start: Elijah Moore, Browns
Jerry Jeudy’s 235-yard burst overshadowed Moore’s Week 13, but fantasy managers should be more than happy to get both in their lineups. Moore went for 111 yards on eight carries. Since the Amari Cooper trade, both wideouts have a target share of 21 percent. Moore’s role in the lower aDOT still resulted in 97 air yards per game. Finished as WR2 or better in four of last six games. Jameis Winston came here to throw 40 rockets and chew gum. You’ll never believe it, but he’s already out of gum.
Start: Khalil Shakir, Bills
Shakir has been the Bills best receiver all season and is finally being treated as such. He is top 10 in route running yards, route running targets and yards per catch. Shakir has a goal share of 27 percent over the past six games. He finished as WR2 or better four times in that stretch. While Keon Coleman may return this week, Shakir has been too good to take away targets from him.
Sitting: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins
Hill is still hovering around the WR2 rankings this week, but he’s nowhere near the must-start fantasy player he was last year. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup, Hill has received 19 percent of the Dolphins’ targets. He was only targeted on a fifth of his routes. Hill is WR27 in expected fantasy points per game and WR23 in actual points per game since Tua’s return. Hill isn’t a clear fade, but fantasy managers who hit on Jerry Jeudy, Jakobi Meyers and other top WR2s can afford to sit Hill this week.
Seated: DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs
Hopkins peaked with a target percentage of 21 percent during his time in Kansas City. That game, through Week 9, is his only contest with a target share in the 20s since being traded. He completed just 57 percent of the team’s snaps over the past four games. In a small AFC West tie with the Chargers, he may be benched for another week.
Tight end
Start: Jonnu Smith, Dolphins
It’s not groundbreaking to say you should start Smith, but the list of tight ends who project more points than him is amazingly small. Since Tua returned, Smith is the TE5 in both expected and actual points per game. He has a goal share of 22 percent and averaged 16 points per game in the last six games. His role is also growing. Smith is shooting 24 percent from the field with 24.4 points per game over the last three weeks.
Start: Juwan Johnson, Saints
If you’re looking for a deep cut at tight end, Johnson is your guy. Taysom Hill sat out Week 13 with a season-ending knee injury. Johnson, on the other hand, recorded a 19 percent target share on 79 percent of routes. Both marks were season highs for the veteran tight end. The Saints are ready to practice squad players at receiver, which means Johnson — a former receiver himself — is likely their best pass-catching option outside of Alvin Kamara. Expect plenty of goals for him to close out the year.
Seated: Cade Otton, Bucs
Otton has turned back into a pumpkin with a healthy Mike Evans. Otton during his short tenure as the No. 1 pass catcher. 1 Bucs gained 27 percent of the team’s targets and 26 percent of the air yards. Those numbers dropped to 16 and eight in two games with Evans back in the lineup. Otton is still a TE2 for Week 14, but has run out of TE1 juice with the fantasy playoffs looming.
Seated: Dalton Kincaid, Bills
With six teams on byes and tight end a nightmare position, there aren’t many easy fades. Kincaid is questionable for Week 14. If he suits, I give him at least a week on the bench. Kincaid ranks 11th in target share among tight ends, but he plays on a team that sits comfortably outside the top 20 offenses in total passing volume, meaning his raw target totals are less impressive. He is currently TE20 in points per game.