Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em

Fantasy Football Week 13 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em

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Set your Week 13 lineups with Dalton Del Dono’s key start/sit advice for every game on the table.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons

Herbert has been the Fantasy QB9 over the past five games, and the Chargers will likely continue to rely more heavily on the pass rush with JK Dobbins. The Falcons have given up the 10th fewest fantasy points to RBs this season, but the seventh most to QBs. Atlanta has thrown multiple TD passes in seven straight games, allowing a whopping 18 over that span. The Chargers have a healthy implied total of 25.5 points, so Herbert is a top five QB this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Pickens is coming off a quiet game, but saw the second-most yards in the air last week (143). Pickens’ combined season stats during matchups with Russell Wilson would be 136 targets, 88 catches, 1,404 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. His fantasy production is up 60.2% this season with Wilson compared to Justin Fields. The Bengals have been funnel defenses over the past five games, allowing the second-most adjusted fantasy points to a wide receiver but the second-fewest to a running back.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Seated: Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigbsy

Etienne will return to sharing the work with Bigsby, who has been in full training again this week. Trevor Lawrence returned to limited practice, but Mac Jones could be in line for another start. Houston has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, and Jacksonville has the fifth-fewest on teams (20.5 points). Bigsby’s averaged 16.7 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) in games without Etienne this season, but just 6.8 with him. Etienne struggled even without Bigsby, so both backs are candidates for the bench in Week 13.

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings

Temperament Expectations: James Conner, Kyler Murray & Marvin Harrison Jr.

Conner has a 48% share in Arizona’s last three games, while rookie Trey Benson has a 29% share in that span. Conner leads the league in tackles and continues to see work in the passing game, but he’s losing work overall and has the toughest matchup in the league this week. The Vikings allowed just 62.3 RB rushing yards per game, an NFL-low five rushing touchdowns and by far the lowest EPA/rush. The Vikings’ opponents averaged the fewest attempts per game this season (20.9).

Meanwhile, Kyler Murray got just 5.4 YPA against zone coverage, which Minnesota used at the second-highest rate in the league (79.5%). Murray also struggled against the blitz and high double coverage (25th in fantasy points/dropback), two traits of Brian Flores’ defense. Minnesota’s quarterbacks averaged an NFL-low 8.6 rushing yards per game.

Additionally, Marvin Harrison Jr.’s target rate. he drops from 30.3% against man to 18% against zone, while his route-running fantasy points drop similarly (0.65 to 0.34). Harrison Jr. he hasn’t seen more than seven targets in a game since Week 3, and no wide receiver in the top 60 is averaging fewer fantasy points per game if you remove the touchdowns.

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Murray has the same number of weekly top-five QB finishes this season (four) as No. 10. There’s a risk he’ll go to your bench against a Minnesota goal that allows the second-highest pass attempts per game (37.9 ). Conner is the RB20 in this week’s “expert consensus,” so you may not have better alternatives. But at least temper expectations for Conner, Murray and Harrison Jr. this week.

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

Here’s the sleep for this week. Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin all missed practice again on Thursday, so Mitchell is looking at a significantly expanded role on Sunday. Michael Pittman Jr. will likely be overshadowed by Christian Gonzalez , and Mitchell has seen his target rate (43.2%) and fantasy points per route run (0.49) skyrocket against man coverage, which the Patriots have used for the second-highest rate in the league (40.2 ). %).

Mitchell hasn’t had much success with Anthony Richardson this season, but AR has played much better than last week’s box score and his willingness to throw downfield seems like a good option for a rookie WR. If there’s a player widely available (only 4% on the roster) on the waiver wire who could make an impact this week, it’s Mitchell.

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets

The Jets’ defense has undoubtedly dipped since the firing of Robert Saleh, but they’ve allowed just two passes and have the second-highest pressure in the league over their last four games. This season, New York has the third-fewest passing yards per game (197.2) and the fewest passing yards (five). Additionally, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett sat out Thursday’s practice, so Seattle may be shorthanded offensively (but Jaxon Smith-Njigba would get a fantasy boost). The Seahawks defense ranks fourth in EPA/play since trading for Ernest Jones, so the game script may not call for many passes in this slow game. Sit Smith this week.

Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders

Pollard likely won’t see a 94% snap share or as heavy a workload as he did last week when Tyjae Spears returned to full practice Thursday, but he should remain in fantasy lineups. The Commanders gained 4.8 YPC, the fifth-highest EPA/rush and the second-highest RB rushing yards per game (120.8). Will Levis is playing much better and the Titans defense should help keep the game script manageable. Run Pollard with Spears’ return as well.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

Irving’s big game last week could have been massive had he not been tackled at the 1-yard line on two separate drives and sacked in the fourth quarter on a layup. He overcame and ran more routes than Rachaad White for the first time this season. Irving is first in the league in yards after contact per rush (4.2) and ranks in the top five in both YPC and yards per route run. Irving has been a fantasy RB11 since Week 6 despite seeing less than 50% of the snaps over that span because he simply looks like one of the best running backs in the NFL right now.

Irving will continue to lose his job in Tampa Bay’s backcourt, but should remain in fantasy lineups in the main game this week. Carolina has allowed the most rushing attempts per game (27.5), rushing yards per game (129.5), touchdowns (16) and adjusted fantasy points for running backs on schedule. Bryce Young has undeniably looked much better of late, but the Buccaneers are 5.5-point home favorites on Sunday, so the game plan should be favorable. Tampa Bay also sports the league’s highest implied team score (27.5 points), so consider Irving a top 12 pick this week.

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints

Stafford was a fantasy QB43 (8.9 fpg) in five games without Cooper Kupp and Puk Nacua on the field this season; was QB8 (19.0 fpg) through five games with wide receivers. Stafford’s season pace would be 4,887.5 passing yards and 37.4 touchdowns with Kupp and Nacua on the field, and that includes facing the league’s current best defense last week. The Saints have allowed the eighth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs over their last five games. The Rams have one of the highest projected totals in the league (26.5 points) against a depleted and vulnerable New Orleans center.

Stafford is QB14 in the “expert consensus rankings” this week, but he’s my QB4.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens

Jalen Hurts has averaged just 21.3 pass attempts over the past six games, but there should be more volume in this rushing game. Baltimore has allowed the fewest RB rushing yards per game (60.5), while Ravens opponents have averaged by far the most pass attempts this season (39.2). Additionally, Goedert posted a 33.3% first-read target share without DeVont Smith last week. The wideout returned to limited practice Thursday, but Smith may not be 100% even if he is able to adjust. Blast Goedert against a pass-funnel defense in this week’s highest-scoring game (51.0 points).

San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills

Samuel is WR43 in fantasy points per game this season, sandwiched between Quentin Johnston and Rashod Bateman. He is WR42 in expected fantasy points, just behind Allen Lazard. Whether it’s injuries or recovering from pneumonia, Samuel just hasn’t looked nearly the same player this year. He committed multiple interceptions and ranked 118th out of 123 pass catchers in ESPN’s Open Score.

Samuel feels “due” for a breakout game, and the 49ers are getting the second-most yards per game (6.3) and red-zone regression. But San Francisco’s offense was a disaster without Brock Purdy and Trent Williams last week; Purdy looks increasingly tired heading into Sunday night, while he’s barely thrown this week and Williams appears unlikely to play. The 49ers have the team’s second-lowest implied total this week (19.5 points), which strongly suggests Brandon Allen is starting in a windy game with temperatures in the 20s. The Bills have let a WR eclipse 16.1 fantasy points in just one game all season, so Samuel is a bench candidate on Sunday night.

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos

Chubb posted season highs in snap share (64%), rush yards (59) and carries (20) last week, but only two short touchdown runs saved his fantastic day. He’s getting just 3.0 YPC and averaging just 1.4 targets (and 1.4 receiving yards) through five games since returning from yet another major, multi-ligament knee surgery. Chubb remains a goal-scoring threat, but faces a tough matchup this week.

The Broncos have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per attempt (0.8) and third-fewest rushing scores (six) this season. Denver has been susceptible to receiving backs, but Chubb ran just eight routes last week and the Broncos have given up the fourth-fewest points to RBs on a rush fantasy adjusted schedule over the past five games. The Browns have struggled at left tackle and an implied total of 19.5 points, so Chubb deserves bench attention on Monday night.

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