Fantasy Football Week 12 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Fantasy Football Week 12 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

by

Set your lineups for Week 12 with Dalton Del Dono’s key start/sit tips for every game on the table.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers

Hubbard has been one of the top fantasy draft picks this season, but he got the toughest defense in the league this week. The Chiefs have allowed the league’s fewest touchdowns (20.9), rushing yards (52.2) and fantasy points (12.8) to running backs. No RB has reached 60 rushing yards against Kansas City this season. Rookie Jonathon Brooks is set to make his NFL debut on Sunday and will take a few touches, and the Panthers have a league-low 16.5 points implied by teams. Granted, Hubbard may be needed this week with six byes, but expectations must be tempered.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Darnold posted 8.4 YPA with a 12-5 TD:INT ratio through his first six games this season, but is 7.5 YPA with a 5-5 ratio through four games since LT Christian Darrisaw went down. Darnold has had a favorable schedule over the past month, but faces a tough, slow road game in Chicago this week. The Bears are a run-funnel defense that allows the seventh-highest EPA/rush but the second-lowest EPA/pass. Chicago has yielded the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and an NFL-low seven passing yards this season.

Start Rome Odunzewho leads Chicago in target share (23%), catches (17), yards (233), yards per route (1.77) and 1D/RR through four games since his bye. He gets the Vikings defense through the funnel allowing the second fewest fantasy points to RBs but the third most to WRs.

This embedded content is not available in your region.

Subscribe Yahoo Fantasy Forecast on Apple podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

Ridley’s fantastic day last week would have looked a lot better had his 51-yard touchdown run not been negated by a formation penalty. Since the return of Will Levis, he has finished in the top three in passing yards in a row. In fact, Ridley leads the league in yards in the air and has been a fantasy WR8 for four games since the DeAndre Hopkins trade. Ridley should also see good volume this week against a Houston defense that is strong against the run, but will give up the eighth-most points to a wide receiver.

Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts

Goff has 19 touchdown passes over his past eight games and his 9.2 YPA leads the NFL. If you’re interested in coverage schemes (h/t TruMedia), it might be worth noting that Goff has been extremely shredding in man coverage this season, leading the NFL in YPA (11.9) and Passer Rating (154.3). All eight of Goff’s interceptions came against zone coverage, which the Colts used at the second-highest rate in the league (79.6%).

Still, Goff remained quite productive against the zone as well, posting 8.9 YPA with the third-most TD passes (nine). Goff will get a quick game in the hall, and the Lions have a league-high 30.5 points as a team, so he should remain in fantasy lineups.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Waddle looks set to have a breakout game every week, but he’s averaged just 3.3 catches, 51.3 yards and 0.2 TDs in six games with Tua Tagovailoa this season. He would be a fantasy WR49 (7.9 fantasy points per game) during this season. Waddle is 65th in fantasy points per route run this year.

The Dolphins have a healthy projected total (27.5 points) and Christian Gonzalez will overshadow Tyreek Hill. However, Waddle has a low 16.2% air yards, 0.14 TPRR and 0.28 XFP/RR against men this season, which New England has used at the third-highest rate in the league (40.6%). The Patriots are also one of the few teams that didn’t use the #2 significantly last season against the Dolphins, and Waddle has seen a -25.7% decrease in FP/RR since last season compared to one high.

This could be a hell of a week for Hill.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants

Start: Bucky Irving & Rachaad White

Mike Evans is slated to return this week, but expect White and Irving to lead Tampa Bay’s offense. As of Week 6, Irving was the fantasy RB23 (points per game) and White was the RB8. The Buccaneers are six-point home favorites (with a total of 24.5 points) who parted ways with the Giants franchise starting Tommy DeVito for financial reasons, so the game script should be favorable. New York has been hit with the highest EPA/thunder in the league over the past month, and the Giants have allowed RBs the most on schedule over the past five games. They gave up an NFL-high 5.3 YPC this season.

There’s some concern that Sean Tucker is getting more involved as well, but since his big game in Week 6, that’s been a complete afterthought. Both Irving and White are safe to start this week.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders

Robinson saw 17 opportunities during his return last week, including a goal score. He ranks in the top 10 in rushing TDs this season (seven), despite missing three games due to heavy work in the red zone. Robinson is out on the injury report this week so hopefully he’s closer to 100%. The Cowboys were tied for NFL-highs in EPA/rush and rushing touchdowns while allowing the third-most points to running backs.

Washington has the second-highest implied team this week (28.5 points) and are double-digit home favorites against a surging Cowboys team, so the game script should be very favorable. Robinson is averaging 5.5 YPC at home this season and is off to a strong fantasy start this week.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

Nix ranks fourth in fantasy points per game and third in catchable throw rate as of Week 5. He’s the QB4 in expected fantasy points on the season, and Nix has barely thrown down the field to start the year. Additionally, the Broncos ran the motion on 60% of their downs last week after entering the motion last; Nix went 17-of-19 for 230 yards (12.1 YPA) with a 4-0 TD:INT ratio during those games. This week he gets a game in the hall against the Raiders defense, allowing for eight fantasy points at QB and dealing with multiple injuries. Nate Hobbs, Jack Jones and Jakorian Bennett did not practice on Thursday this week, so Las Vegas could have three starting corners.

Nix looks like a top five fantasy QB again this week.

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

Jennings is averaging 119.7 receiving yards and 29.3 FPG in three games without Brandon AIyuk or Deeb Samuel Sr.; both marks would lead the NFL this season. His 42% first-read target rate in that span would rank second in the league this year. Jennings is averaging more fantasy points per route than Justin Jefferson this season and ranks in the top five in 1D/RR. We get the 2023 version of Aiyuk from Jennings replacing BA in the “X” role in San Francisco.

Green Bay will miss cornerback Jaire Alexander, and Samuel Sr. just hasn’t looked the same while recovering from pneumonia. Brock Purdy’s status needs to be monitored as he deals with a sore shoulder, but Jennings looks like a weekly top-15 WR if his QB’s health cooperates.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Harrison Jr. finally started running more passing routes against Arizona and hopefully MHJ gets the proverbial rookie out of it. Harrison Jr. ranks seventh in yardage percentage (41.1%) and eighth in end zone targets — tied with Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb.

Harrison Jr. has faced the fifth-toughest WR scheme in the league so far (his QB has faced the toughest), but the rookie deal has the fourth-easiest progression going forward. Harrison Jr. produced the second-most fantasy points this season on routes against the press, which Seattle used at the fifth-highest rate in the league. The Seahawks have also allowed WRs the fifth-most fantasy points against expectations this season.

Kyler Murray has been given 9.1 YPA over his last three games before Arizona’s bye against three pass defenses, so the Cardinals offense has the upper hand. Harrison Jr. is a top 15 WR in this fast-paced game.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams

Stafford averaged 296.4 passing yards, 2.2 TDs and 19.0 fantasy points this season against Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua (~QB7); he’s averaging 215.0 yards, 0.4 TDs and 8.9 fantasy points (~QB40) without them (h/t FTN). And Nacua was sent off early in one of those matches. Stafford is also in danger of another touchdown drop as he leads the league in end zone targets (33) but is tied for just 12th in TD passes.

That said, fantasy managers should at least explore alternatives this week when the Rams face an Eagles defense that has allowed a 2-5 TD:INT ratio since Week 4. A league-leading 18.7% of passes against Philadelphia gained 10+ yards over that span. The Eagles have allowed just one wide receiver (Ja’Marr Chase) to rank higher than WR40 on the week since the 4th. of the week. Philadelphia advanced NFL-low-low 19.3 yards per drive for the last two months.

A shootout is possible here, but Stafford is up against the hottest defense in the league.

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers

Gus Edwards has taken 30% of his rushing attempts since his return, while Hassan Haskins has stolen 46% of his attempts inside the five-yard line. Dobbins will retain fantasy value with a still-healthy role in a good offense, but he’s averaging just 3.7 YPC since Week 2 and will get a tough matchup on Monday night. The Ravens have allowed the second fewest RB rushing yards per game this season (61.1) and an NFL low 3.4 YPC. Baltimore has been prone to receiving rebounds, but Dobbins is averaging just 2.0 targets this month. Fantasy managers may not be able to sit Dobbins with as many Rays this week, but his expectations should be lowered.

Start Quentin Johnstonwho led Chargers’ WRs in snap share (81%) and had career highs in targets (eight) and passing yards (165) last week. He’s been a busted coverage trader at times, but Johnston also has the fourth-most receiving touchdowns (six) among all pass catchers this season. The Ravens opponents are averaging the most pass attempts this year (39.5), making Johnston a top-25 WR this week.

Leave a Comment