Fantasy Football Week 12 Fades: Is Matthew Stafford Trap On The Horizon?

Fantasy Football Week 12 Fades: Is Matthew Stafford Trap On The Horizon?

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Another week, another round of all-important start/sit decisions. To help you achieve them, here’s a look at six players with the potential to fall in Week 12.

Something to keep in mind as you read: a fade or bust doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or the options available on your waiver wire.

It’s really hard to imagine a fantasy quarterback throwing to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacu fading on any given week — especially in a high-scoring matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles with plenty of offensive firepower on both sides.

But it feels like the ultimate trap play to me… especially for Rams QB Matthew Stafford.

Stafford is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season in Week 11, going 18 of 27 for 295 yards and 4 TDs against the New England Patriots, resulting in 27.8 fantasy points as the overall QB5 for the week. While it would appear that the matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles might be interesting at first glance, it bears repeating that this Eagles secondary is not the same as last year.

The unit that ranked in the top three in net passing yards per game (255.7) and second in TDs in a season (38) is gone; now it’s Reed Blankenship, Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell. Along with Darius Slay and CJ Gardner-Johnson in the secondary, this group of defensive backs has been massively underrated, allowing the second fewest passing yards per game (172.2), a league-low 5.0 yards per pass attempt, and tied for third- fewest passing touchdowns in the entire season (9).

Thermal control 🔥 Unless you’re in a two-QB or Superflex league, Stafford is best left on the fantasy bench this week, despite the intriguing 49.5 point total that oddsmakers have projected this week.

Carolina Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard is coming off an outstanding season in 2024 and has been richly rewarded for his production (on one of the league’s worst offenses, mind you) with a nice big contract extension. He showed his worth in the very next game as well, posting 169 scrimmage yards and a score in Week 10 before their bye.

Despite his recent dominance this season, there are two clear reasons to suspect Hubbard won’t continue on his path of production. The first of these reasons is conformity; this week, the Panthers face the Kansas City Chiefs, who have been among the most productive running backs this year, holding opposing RBs to a league-low 3.11 yards per carry and giving up a league-low 522 rushing yards through 10 games. Their 12.82 fantasy points per game put them in last place in the league.

With a tough matchup on the board, the debut is slated for rookie second-round RB Jonathon Brooks, who will play in his first NFL game back from a torn ACL that has kept him out so far this year. He doesn’t seem likely to have a significant role in Week 12, but every piece of pie he gets is a piece of Hubbard’s plate.

Thermal control 🔥 You’ll likely be in a position to have to start Hubbard given the six teams that have byes this week. However, it’s best to expect something closer to RB3/RB4 performance from him than his standard top 12 finish, even if Brooks can handle a minimal role.

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The Chicago Bears have undergone a major shift over the past two weeks, firing former OC Shane Waldron and promoting passing coordinator Thomas Brown to call the plays in the meantime. In Brown’s first games called up, the offense posted its most yards (391) since an Oct. 6 win over the Carolina Panthers — that’s good news. Normally, this would mean exciting things for the run game, but there is another side to this coin (bad news).

In week 12, the Bears face the Minnesota Vikings, which has been ranked among the most suffocating games in the league this season. The Vikings defense is allowing the second-lowest average YPC (3.6), the second-fewest rushing yards per attempt (2.4) and the third-lowest explosive run rate (9.3%) this season, giving up the second-fewest points for fantasy. per game against opposing RBs (14.54).

Another interesting tidbit worth noting regarding Swift’s growth in the coming week is the increased workload for backup RB Roschon Johnson last week. He saw a 42% offensive rate of 42% and got a season-high 11 touches. The fact that this increase in usage coincided with a coaching shift is interesting. Plus, Swift is dealing with a groin injury that forced him out of practice Wednesday, though HC Matt Eberflus says he hopes to play.

Thermal control 🔥 Swift should start in most leagues, barring much better options, as he has shown a pretty safe level going back to Week 4 with 10+ fantasy points in all but one game since. But a tough matchup coupled with an increase in work for Johnson last week makes Swift less appealing than usual.

We’re losing a passer this week, so why not shut down his top target?

As mentioned above, the Philadelphia Eagles have had a sneakily good pass rush since Cooper DeJean took over the role almost full-time in Week 6. Although he primarily plays slot, his presence has practically turned the secondary into a shutdown unit.

From Week 6, here’s a look at how the Eagles’ secondary performed against WR targets lined up wide and where it ranks among other defenses according to next-gen stats:

  • 36.8% pass success rate (low league)

  • 45.4 NFL Passer Rating (minor league)

  • 45.6% completion rate (league minimum)

  • -0.15 EPA per feedback (second lowest)

  • 273 yards (third-fewest)

The Eagles secondary is also the only team that hasn’t allowed a single touchdown to a ranked WR in that span. With Nacua playing primarily along the line (74% snap rate this season) while teammate Cooper Kupp fills the slot at a 69% snap rate, there are real concerns he could have an ineffective day.

Thermal control 🔥 Do not bench Nacua under any circumstances; he’s a star with absurd playmaking power and benefits from lining up alongside Kupp, which could help split coverages against this stingy Eagles secondary. However, if you need a monster game this week, brace yourself for potential disappointment.

DeVonta Smith’s experience had its ups and downs in the 2024 season; is averaging a career-high 74.5% slot utilization (52.9% vs. previous career high 31.1%). While that appears to have boosted his overall fantasy level as he has managed 64 or more receiving yards in six of nine games this year, his upside appears to have been limited, but he has by no means broken the 90-yard mark. the game.

He faces the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12 in a sneaky matchup against WRs lined up in the slot, which could mean another such performance for fantasy managers. Heading into Week 6, the Rams are allowing a league-leading 29% target success rate to WRs per NGN stat, giving up an NFL passer rating (45.2% completion rate) and a ridiculous 1:5 TD:INT. ratio for such games.

Thermal control 🔥 As I’ve noted several times in this article, this feels more like a trap for fantasy managers than the barn burner we’re all hoping for given the firepower of these respective offenses. With no cap space this year coupled with a tough matchup, Smith isn’t a must-start in Week 12 if you have better options. If you have to start a week full of goodbyes, do so with moderate expectations.

There was a point early this season (right around Weeks 4-8) where many suspected they had found the answer to their woes in sophomore Packer Tucker Kraft. Unfortunately, his level of consistency as a red-zone weapon has declined in recent weeks, and he failed to produce a single catch in Week 11 coming off Green Bay’s bye. Just in case you’re hoping for a bounce-back performance, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12, even if they make some special adjustments for him the week after that. goose egg.

The 49ers have been a tough matchup for opposing tight ends this season, failing to allow a single TE more than 10 fantasy points in a single game, giving up the second-lowest Y/A target average per position in the league (5.5 ), behind only the Houston Texans . Their 44.6% pass attempt rate to TEs is fourth-lowest in the league according to Next Generation Stats, allowing just 356 yards (fourth-fewest) and 2 TDs (tied for ninth-fewest) all season.

Thermal control 🔥 There’s an expectation of some level of volatility every time you start a Packers pass catcher, but given the Niners’ strengths in the middle of the field and history of shutting down more than capable TEs this season, you’re better off leaving Kraft on your bench. Consider a streaming option like rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders, who has a favorable matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs this week.

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