The weeks are finally over and we’re in the fantasy playoffs! Last week, with six teams on the bye, we relied on short, unstable players and hoped they could take advantage of good matchups. There are no limits this week and we face difficult decisions and trust issues. Will the big names prevail?
Can a flashy talent deliver weekly winning stats in good matchups?
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
Honestly, I never thought Reed and I would reach a point where we could make or break, but I guess we were in denial. Players like Amari Cooper are easy to recognize as boom-or-bust by nature, but Reed is overlooked as one of the most volatile receivers in the league. At this point, he has both the talent and the quarterback to finish as the overall WR1 in any given week, even in tough matchups.
On the other hand, it is also capable of delivering absolutely nothing.
Reed is fresh off a game with zero fantasy points – no receptions on just one target. We knew the possible pitfalls of the Packers’ receiving corps heading into the season and hoped that Reed would break out and separate himself from the pack. While he’s clearly a WR1, he doesn’t have the consistent impact or volume of top-tier options from a fantasy perspective. Reed has just one game with more than six goals this season.
He can generate a lot of yardage in limited opportunities and make big plays, but is extremely touchdown dependent. Reed has three 100-yard games — a reasonable total, especially considering two of those games were without Jordan Love. But he also has eight games of 50 or fewer yards.
Will Reed to do or a break your lineup in week 15?
This week, Reed faces a Seattle defense that is inconsistent against the pass. Even if they don’t give up significant points to opposing wide receivers as a group, at least one receiver usually has a strong fantasy performance against them. Reed could totally be the guy to leave. However, the Packers could still lean heavily on Josh Jacobs. Cane remains an extremely risky option.
If you start it, understand that there is no middle ground.
Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears
Week 14 was wildly underwhelming for Keenan Allen. He managed just three receptions for 30 yards and finished as a WR55 in half the PPR — a big disappointment after two straight top-10 finishes. Now fantasy managers have to ask themselves the big question: what was the anomaly — two top-10 finishes or a disastrous performance last year? week?
We’ve seen more WR55-type performances from Allen this year than top 10 finishes. But if you attribute those boom plays to random game scripts, that’s where the conflict lies this week. If his success depends solely on the game script, this week’s matchup against Minnesota should work in his favor. In Week 12 against Minnesota, Allen had one of his top 10 performances, catching nine of 15 targets (a season high) for 86 yards and a touchdown. DJ Moore also ranked among the top 10 receivers in this game.
Will Allen to do or a break your lineup in week 15?
Looking at the previous game, the game was competitive – Chicago played from behind for most of the game, but stayed within reach and eventually forced overtime. The match took place in Chicago, but the weather did not play a role. With offensive improvements from Caleb Williams, it’s reasonable to expect a similar result.
It’s hard to trust Allen — believe me, I’m debating starting him in the Scott Fish Bowl right now — but this matchup presents a high-ceiling opportunity. Given the success Allen had in the previous game, we can reasonably expect a similar approach and potentially lean on Allen in this one.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
Denver is coming off the bye and Week 13 was the last week we saw Javonte Williams … though you probably forgot he even played given his stat line of four carries for one yard. Yes, that’s an average of 0.25 yards per carry. He scored a touchdown, but since that touchdown accounted for nearly all of his fantasy points, it hardly saved the day.
The Broncos game has been completely inconsistent in terms of usage over the last month. In Week 13, it was Jaleel McLaughlin who unexpectedly led the backfield with 14 carries. In Week 12, Williams led the way, but managed just eight carries for -2 yards. Week 11 also saw Williams as the lead back, but Week 10 featured Audric Estimé.
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Across the entire backfield, the Broncos have only put up two RB1 performances all season.
Will Williams to do or a break your lineup in week 15?
This week’s matchup against Indianapolis looks promising for the quarterback. The Colts have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, making them the defense we’ve been targeting all season. But it’s almost impossible to trust Williams when we can’t even guarantee he’ll get back to the lead.
This is more of a Hail Mary situation, keep your fingers crossed and hope. Williams has a rightful bottom of one fantasy point. At this point, I can name more than a handful of backup quarterbacks I trust more than Williams — and ironically, none of them are on his team.
Sincerely, McCormick, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
It’s official! McCormick is the new leader of the Raiders team. If you’ve been following my early waiver wire series — which goes down every Sunday afternoon — you were ahead of the game, grabbing McCormick earlier this week and speculating that he’d eventually return for the lead.
Unfortunately, McCormick doesn’t meet the minimum number of attempts for Next Gen Stats yet, so we can’t directly compare him to the rest of the Raiders backfield. However, Alexander Mattison has one of the league’s worst rushing yards per attempt and hasn’t had a single target at RB1 in 2024. He’s averaging just 3.3 yards per carry — the worst mark of his career. Meanwhile, McCormick has shined as the team’s best defenseman this season, and it’s not even close.
McCormick has been excellent on the ground, but has yet to find the end zone – not entirely his fault. Last week, Aiden O’Connell scored the Raiders’ first rushing touchdown since Week 9. The bigger problem is that the Raiders offense doesn’t move the ball well enough to create consistent opportunities in the red zone.
Will McCormick to do or a break your lineup in week 15?
We know McCormick leads back and this week’s game against Atlanta is favorable. The Falcons tend to allow the volume of the run, as evidenced by their performance against Denver. Even this dysfunctional Broncos backfield was able to get 17 fantastic points from Javonte Williams, one of his two RB1 finishes this season.
McCormick’s lack of work limits his ceiling, but he’s a very interesting option this week — a safe low-end RB2 with potential upside if he could finally score his first touchdown of the season.
Injury bonus: Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns
Most of the time when I discuss players and injury situations, it’s about someone benefiting from increased volume due to a teammate’s absence. This week I want to quickly touch on Tillman’s potential if he plays.
Tillman’s last full game was in Week 11, when he had three receptions on eight targets for 47 yards. After the departure of Amari Cooper, he served as the Browns’ WR1 for three games. Jerry Jeudy saw a consistent role with a steady floor, but Tillman showed great upside in that stretch. His performance in Week 11 included six receptions on 11 targets for 142 yards and a touchdown. That game started a hot streak where Tillman finished WR4, WR21, WR1 and WR17 over the next few weeks.
Will Tillman to do or a break your lineup in week 15?
If Tillman returns this week, Jeudy will likely remain the projected WR1. However, the game against Kansas City is very pass-friendly. Cleveland’s defense is struggling, and Kansas City should exploit those weaknesses. With Nick Chubb still struggling with volume, Cleveland will likely take another tough approach, creating plenty of opportunities for Tillman to provide strong flex value.