Another week, another round of all-important start/sit decisions. To help you achieve them, here’s a look at five players with the potential to fall in Week 15 — the crucial week when most teams begin the fantasy football playoffs.
Something to keep in mind as you read: a fade or bust doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or the options available on your waiver wire.
QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
After a string of tight games in Weeks 11-13, Hurts returned to form with a 24-fantasy-point outing to redeem fantasy managers in a key week. Despite it being his second straight game of under 120 yards (and third of under 180), he matched (literally) with 59 rushing yards and a score to go with his two TDs. There’s no doubt that it’s been an up-and-down run for the Eagles of late, but thankfully, the run game has been strong enough to carry their winning streak through down times.
Although Hurts has a weekly QB1 overall upside, the upcoming matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers seems like a bit of a trap that could set fantasy managers up for a less-than-desirable outcome. Not only have the Steelers limited opposing QBs to the third-fewest fantasy points per game this year, but they’ve also had a lot of success against rushing QBs in particular.
The Steelers have yet to allow any quarterback 20+ fantasy points this year despite facing five of the top 12 players at the position, cheat code fantasy (Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson) heading into Week 15. Pittsburgh held those running backs to a combined 101 rushing yards with a career-high 46 for Lamar Jackson in Week 11; neither of them scored more than 15 fantasy points.
Given some of the Eagles’ recent struggles establishing a rhythm in the passing game, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Hurts fall outside the top 12 again this week.
Thermal control 🔥 Most fantasy football managers (unless you’re in a dynasty league with an embarrassment of riches at QB) can’t afford to sit Hurts in a crunch week. But keep in mind that Hurts is exactly the prototypical QB that Pittsburgh has limited this season.
RB James Cook, Buffalo Bills
James Cook did it this year – cooked. Concerns about a lack of touchdown upside with Josh Allen stealing touches at the goal line didn’t matter; Cook is up to 11 touchdowns on the ground and more through the air while sitting as the RB11 in fantasy points per game. It’s not particularly surprising that he found a piece of the pie, as there has been plenty of scoring this year, with the Bills scoring over 30 points in all but three games.
This week, the Bills face the Detroit Lions with Vegas’ highest projected score of any game this week, but Buffalo is currently a 3.5-point underdog against a defense that has yet to allow a single RB 100+ rushing yards in a game this year. Much of that was due to a game script that faces the second-lowest number of runs in the league (32.9%), forcing teams to pass more often thanks to a league-leading 49 offensive touchdowns this year. The Lions haven’t been the most dominant rushers in the league, but the lack of volume against the defense has led to the second-lowest points per game allowed to RBs this season (15.05).
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Thermal control 🔥 Start Cook in Week 15, but knowing it could be a down week for him volume-wise, he’ll be more touchdown-reliant than usual. Cook averaged just 7.6 fantasy points and 13.75 touches per game in four games in which the Bills defense allowed him 25+ points. The Lions have an implied total of 29 points this week.
RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
This is Nick Chubb’s second week in a row on the fantasy bust list; I’m calling it official – we can’t reasonably start him in the fantasy playoffs. Consider this your final, eternal warning for the rest of the season; I promise it won’t end up in the fades column again this year.
It’s not particularly surprising, but Chubb’s efficiency has been abysmal in his return from a season-ending knee injury in 2023. Among the 37 RBs with 90+ carries this year, Chubb is last in average YPC (3.1) and YPRR (0.4). , with the sixth-fewest yards after contact per attempt (2.59) and the third-fewest first downs/touchdowns at 17.2%.
Not only has he continued to share the work over the past two weeks (20 to Jerome Ford’s 19), but he also has an upcoming game against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are allowing just 13.09 fantasy points and 58.5 rushing yards per league. play to the opposing RB. Pass.
Thermal control 🔥 Once again, I ask you to look for other options in RB. Chubb is a boom/bust, touchdown-dependent fantasy RB now in time-limit use with a tough matchup on the board, better left on the bench if you have better options.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts have been a difficult offense to project each week thanks to Anthony Richardson’s volatility as a passer in his second NFL season. That volatility has trickled down to pass catchers struggling to find fantasy relevance. That’s also true of Michael Pittman Jr., who has failed to break the 15-point mark in a single week this season in half-PPR formats. Now, in this crucial Week 15, is not the time to allow him to re-enter the Circle of Trust, even if he leaves the bye week likely healthier than before.
Next on the schedule, the Colts will face the Denver Broncos secondary, with Pittman likely to face a lot of CB Patrick Surtain II. The Broncos are the third-highest pass rusher (38.9%) this season, something Pittman has generally struggled against this year — perhaps in part because of his health, as he’s dealt with a nagging back injury this season. He ranks dead last among his fellow Colts WRs averaging 7.1 YPR, 0.76 YPRR and 2.8 yards per catch per reception against man; this might be a better opportunity for WR Josh Downs, who excelled at a higher rate.
Thermal control 🔥 Sit Pittman for better options in Week 15; his upside isn’t worth the low floor, especially in a must-win week.
TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
After missing three games with a knee injury, it seems likely that second-year TE Dalton Kincaid will return to the Bills’ lineup in Week 15 … but that doesn’t necessarily mean he should return to your fantasy lineup. It’s no secret that 2024 was a disappointing campaign for the former first-round pick; despite a clear opportunity to take over as the primary receiving option in the absence of Stefon Diggs (and a 24.7% target rate on run routes – fourth-highest among TEs with 40+ targets), he failed to impress fantasy managers. .
Kincaid saw a drop in his receiving percentage (80.2% to 61.8%) from last year, although he did see an increase in receiving yards (9.6 to 10.5), yards per catch (4.3 to 6 .6) and yards per route run (1.51 to 1.60). Still not enough to make up for being 21st out of 30 TEs (min. 40 targets) in catchable percentage (91.9%). Between that and Allen’s propensity to spread the ball around (especially in the red zone and end zone), it severely limits his weekly upside.
The Bills’ Week 15 matchup with the Lions is tough; Detroit is allowing TEs the second-lowest EPA on drop targets this year (-0.28), has given up a league-leading 418 receiving yards through 13 games and the third-lowest passing success rate (43.8%) per NFL New Generation Stats. That’s a league-low 5.78 fantasy points per game for opposing TEs despite facing the likes of Trey McBride, Tucker Kraft, Cade Otton and Jake Ferguson over the course of the season.
Thermal control 🔥 If you’ve made it through the past three weeks without Dalton Kincaid, chances are you’ve found another, more suitable option at TE. Kincaid’s ceiling just wasn’t high enough to justify starting in the fantasy playoffs, even if the position hurts.