That’s the only way we get to the fantasy football playoffs. One day we have plenty of time to build a roster, absorb a loss or two, and the next we’re right in the pressure cooker of fantasy sports. People react very differently to high pressure situations.
Some of us are calm and focused, perhaps more so than under “normal” circumstances, rationally doing the things that need to be done. Others become almost deterministically detached from the outcome and take no action at all. Others of us will panic like the proverbial chicken with its head cut off, doing many things but without a clear and logical plan.
In addition to our innate personalities, our fantasy playoff decisions can also be mired in bias. A cognitive bias is any deviation from reasoning and logical judgment. Although they get a lot of bad press, the prejudice is not all negative. Some serve us extremely well, allowing us to make very accurate first impressions or to believe that events that have occurred repeatedly or recently are likely to continue. The very ones that lead us to falsely elevate the importance of certain kinds of data and ignore others can land us in a bad place. There are many biases that simply protect our fragile egos, which will not help us win fantasy championships, only justify our losses.
In this week’s edition of Fact or Fluke, we’ll go over some of the decisions you’ll need to make over the next three weeks and how to avoid cognitive bias. As with many things in life, knowledge is power. Just know when and how you are most likely unconsciously making a biased decision can help you avoid this. Whether you’re on the bye this week or facing an uphill battle after just sneaking into the playoffs, we’ve got some advice for you!
Channel the personality of a calm and focused manager.
Avoid adding and dropping and re-adding free stuff all week like a panicked headless chicken. But you also don’t just tune in and let the chips fall where they may. Nothing in fantasy football is predetermined. Even if you have this week off, set up your Week 15 lineup as usual to see how you stack up against your league mates’ playoff rosters.
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Be methodical.
Start by focusing on the quality of the depth. Have a great starting lineup, but is it injury-proof? Match resistant? Keep an eye out for tight, high-scoring matches by checking the betting lines. Look for inconsistencies in progress/playback. If one of your key starters goes down in Week 15, are you prepared to fill his spot with someone in a plus matchup (by DvP) or on a team that has a high projected total?
During Week 14, the highest-scoring offenses are Detroit, Buffalo, Baltimore, Washington, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Philadelphia and Minnesota. With Washington and Baltimore having a bye last week, there’s a chance some of their minor leaguers are out.
The most generous defenses are Carolina, Dallas, Las Vegas, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cleveland, Atlanta and the LA Rams. For fantasy points allowed, they are Jacksonville, Carolina, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Dallas, Cincinnati, Las Vegas, Indianapolis and the LA Rams. As expected, there is a lot of overlap.
The best running back matchups are Carolina, Jacksonville and Buffalo.
Wide receiver matchups are best Minnesota, Atlanta, Baltimore and Jacksonville.
Matchups are best for tight ends Las Vegas, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Carolina, Tampa Bay and Indianapolis.
The game scenario matters.
If you haven’t already, now is the time to dig into the game flow opportunities in Weeks 16 and 17. While predicting game play is an imperfect process, your best guess is which teams might be in a situation where they have time to play out the entire second half, and which others might be in full-time mode and playing shorthanded. This then informs which RB or WR you prefer to add.
Make sure you have the best defensive unit you can get for the next two weeks. Turnovers and points allowed are the best indicators of fantasy success, but looking at the ratio of sacks and sacks gained in a given game can also be a valuable reference statistic.
The teams with the highest subscription rates are Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Green Bay, Houston and Buffalo. In terms of points allowed by opponents, the stingiest defenses are the LA Chargers, Detroit, Denver, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Minnesota. Sack leaders include Denver, Houston, Baltimore, Minnesota and the LA Chargers. If yours is one of the 33% of leagues where Denver is eliminated, get them for Week 15 with the Colts.
This is the time to reduce dead weight.
The players you wore just in case they will return to that morning flood of fantastic points. They are on your bench, their time is up. Even if they go out again, it won’t help you. Players like Raheem Mostert and Alexander Mattison are still on the roster in 40-48% of Yahoo leagues. That third QB or extra kicker? It is no longer needed.
There are several cognitive biases associated with holding on to things that no longer serve a purpose.
That’s why our basements, garages and closets are filled with things we just can’t part with. You’ve probably heard of the Sunk Cost Fallacy, the Endowment Effect, and of course FOMO. They are all based on the idea that a part of ourselves is tied to any investment we make, and when that investment goes wrong, it means we were wrong.
By investment, I don’t mean stocks exclusively, although that certainly applies to financial management, but it could be a pair of shoes, wall art, a smart lawn and garden tool, and the like. My mom has a painting on her wall that I helped her pick out and it’s horrible in her space. It doesn’t match the rest of her decor at all, but she can’t bring herself to admit that her daughter made a terrible mistake in choosing it for her.
The thing is, it’s very liberating to admit when we’ve been wrong in our past decisions and to donate or throw away things that no longer work for us. If your goal is to win a fantasy league, you have to be willing to be brutally honest with your roster. ADP doesn’t matter. The fame of the name does not matter. Touches, matchup and game play are now important.
Spend time researching the rosters of potential opponents.
What did they have to do to survive the 14th week of the apocalypse? Have they left holes in their depth chart that you can exploit? Blocking your opponents ability to drop back to running backs or the best available tight end gives you a slight advantage, but it’s the move I give the least priority to. Improving your own roster is always the better game.
If they have an “obvious guy” for Week 15 – it’s Patrick Taylor Jr. or Braelon Allen – go after the guy behind the guy. Israel Abanikanda for the 49ers and Isaiah Davis of the Jets are big names to consider. Everyone loves a rookie like Xavier Legette, but boring veteran Adam Thielen has just over 100 yards per game and 21 targets over the past two weeks. He is available in almost half the leagues with Dallas this weekend.
The key is to be very intentional with your fantastic choices over the next few weeks. Every popular waiver wire add is not for every manager. Really consider what your team needs to power up and then try to create that power in the most strategic way possible. Changing things for the sake of change is rarely the right choice. Good luck this week!