By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Patient readers, brunch was quite something today, so please forgive any solecisms or infelicities. –lambert
Bird Song of the Day
Northern Mockingbird, The Celery Fields, Sarasota, Florida, United States.
In Case You Might Miss…
- Election 2024 roundup.
- Gram Parsons’ birthday.
- Welding.
Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Results: D5H" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Handy map:
daO" alt="" width="600" height="612" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-281737" srcset="daO 600w, JiM 294w" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px"/>
Certainly Trump’s solid win in the popular vote is legitimizing, and makes the kind of spook manipulations I was concerned about far less likely, though the nature and role of the Intelligence Community as an extra-constitutional entity remains a question. (Sadly, CIA Democrat Elissa Slotkin may yet pull out a win.)
Trump’s popular vote win was also unexpected:
One thing the prediction markets missed:
The low-probability outcome of Trump becoming the first Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years ended up happening.Byb
— Axios (@axios) 9qD" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
“Harris to concede Wednesday afternoon” [Associated Press]. “Vice President Kamala Harris will deliver a concession speech Wednesday at 4 p.m., her office announced. Harris will speak at Howard University, her alma mater in Washington, where her supporters watched returns Tuesday night before being sent home after midnight as President-elect Donald Trump pulled ahead in battleground state results.” • In the election Live Blog, I published a schedule of returns from the Harris campaign: “Thursday, 11/07 & Beyond: If results are very close in any state, the race still may not be called.” But events moved much, much faster!
* * * A compendium of reactions. –lambert
Class: Harris always did well in the Hamptons:
Staggering class realignment/shift in working class
Harris lost DESPITE major shift of affluent voters her way
2020: Trump wins voters over $100K, 54-52
2024: *Harris* wins voters over $100K, 54-452020: Biden wins voters $50K-$100K, 57-42
2024: *Trump* w/ voters $50K-$100K,…— Jeff Stein (@JStein_WaPo) 2ph" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
Shoutout to Ferguson and Storm:
I really encourage people who think the Biden economy was great to read this paper from May by Thomas Ferguson and Servaas Storm. “Trump versus Biden: The Macroeconomics of the Second Coming.” Need to understand the economic context of this catastrophe. jTM EYT" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">pic.twitter.com/UoCREFlp3u
— Neal Meyer (@nealmeyer) EML" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
Trump being an expert in sniffing out weakness. Turns out the Democrat weakness was class, as one would expect from a party whose base is the PMC.
Universal concrete material benefits:
l8f" alt="" width="500" height="927" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-281739" srcset="l8f 500w, me3 162w" sizes="(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px"/>
* * * Missouri:
Nothing to see here, just a centrist losing by half a million votes in a state where leftwing labor policy won. FkR
— Aren R. LeBrun (@arenrlebrun) zKB" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
Counties: “Early Results Show a Red Shift Across the U.S.” [New York Times]: “Of the counties with nearly complete results, more than 90 percent shifted in favor of former President Donald J. Trump in the 2024 presidential election.”
9gI" alt="" width="600" height="375" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-281738" srcset="9gI 600w, q0a 300w" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px"/>
Kamala’s underperformance:
“Holy smokes! Literally nothing? Literally not one county?”
Jake Tapper is absolutely SHOCKED by the map showing that Kamala didn’t outperform Biden in a single county.
She’s a total loser!MSm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">pic.twitter.com/XI0Q4s4wnU
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) VI9" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
Data point (1):
An interesting data point. Donald Trump just won Anson County, North Carolina. The county is 40% Black. Trump becomes just the second Republican to win this county since the 1870s. (For people keeping score, that means since Reconstruction).
— Darvio Morrow (@DTheKingpin) x3Y" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
Data point (2):
Trump won Starr County TX, most Hispanic county in America at 97% by 16 points.
Last time it voted republican was in 1892.
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) r1F" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
The Blob: I wonder how the “thirty five year national security expert” is feeling?
Musk v Pompeo. The battle for heart of the Trump administration has begun: Lvi
— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) r6N" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
Our Democracy: Misery:
There’s a sign you can see in many shops that sell beautiful but fragile items: LOVELY TO LOOK AT, DELIGHTFUL TO HOLD, BUT ONCE YOU BREAK IT, THEN IT’S SOLD.
You can say the same about democracy.— Stephen King (@StephenKing) haF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
One party’s candidate was chosen in primaries; the other’s was selected by a small cabal. One party’s base hated its leadership, and used the primary mechanism to get rid of it. The other party did not. Which party is more democratic?
Democrat Leadership: The entire Democrat leadership ought to be purged, for starters:
This catastrophic Senate outcome is on Schumer, who explicitly sought to trade working class votes for suburban affluent votes, and got got neither. bCV" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">pic.twitter.com/38FgfygfIY
— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) Y5v" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
Of course, that won’t happen, and the entire party has been made over in the image of the failed leaders (Exhibit A: AOC), so even if it did happen, it would make no differenece.
Identity Politics: “A historic realignment” –Trump
Trump claims Muslim Americans as part of the coalition that helped secure his projected victory in the 2024 presidential election: “It came from — they came from all quarters — union, non-union, African American, Hispanic American, Asian American, Arab American, Muslim … It was… wdu" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">pic.twitter.com/lyTfJIr3Fd
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) Hqf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
Abortion: “Reproductive Freedom” outran Kamala:
Abortion rights are beating Kamala in every single state that voted on them.
Progressive policies aren’t unelectable – unpopular Democratic politicians are. Rho" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">pic.twitter.com/Akum3h67jZ
— Holding Dems Accountable (From the Left!) (@PushBidenLeft) qP6" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
This suggests, perhaps counter-intuitively, that the Supreme Court in Dobbs, which left abortion up to the states will in fact maximize poltically feasible codification (assuming Trump keeps his promise not to push for a national ban. No doubt the Christianists will push for a national ban when Congress reconvenes, so we’ll see what happens. Personally, I think Trump would like the whole issue, and its zealots, to go away.
Our Famously Free Press:
Even prototypical DC journalist DnH" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">@MarkHalperin says the media failure may be so immense it can’t be repaired.
“It’s such an admission of complete professional irresponsibility, of malpractice, that it’s difficult for people to concede.” WID Lxr" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">pic.twitter.com/IBL5CzVDlW
— Emily Kopp (@emilyakopp) 4ET" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
The “dark” meme reappears:
Notice how WaPo and NYT use the term “dark” to describe Trump, but never used that for Biden and Harris while they spent a year bombing babies?
Yes, Trump is bad, but this kind of media whitewashing of Dems has to stop. cKG" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">pic.twitter.com/MrEkQ0Stc7
— Peter Daou (@peterdaou) 4lz" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
Liberal Inability to Self-Reflect: “Would it not in that case be simpler for the government to dissolve the people and elect another?” — Bertolt Brecht
This election was about one thing: hate vs. the understanding we’re all in this together. Americans prefer the former. That’s the only conclusion to draw. yeS
— Elizabeth Kolbert (@ElizKolbert) Mui" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
The sad thing is that even though Kolbert is at The New Yorker, I’ve enjoyed her writing on climate.
Schadendfreude: The Bidens (1): Ouch!
Jill wore all red to vote. As the wife of a democrat politician there’s no way she doesn’t know how this looks. Biden and Jill are pissed. 5Mm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">pic.twitter.com/aHb5k4VZUe
— Coco 🇺🇸 (@CoClarified) sWy" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 5, 2024
The Bidens (2): Biden’s counter-programming, whatever the cause, cannot have been helpful:
“tell kamala. i want her to know it was me.” V9C aRd" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">pic.twitter.com/AErF84Rjab
— Logan Hall (@loganclarkhall) XDJ" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
(“I want her to know it was me” is a Game of Thrones reference.)
Get the word “Lincoln” out of your mouths:
Guest on CNN: ‘The Lincoln Project was utterly useless. They just built themselves a bunch of beach houses on Dem donor money.’
— Peter Daou (@peterdaou) uNP" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
The fall of House Cheney:
They Cheneys have now stolen two elections from Democrats but you can’t really blame them for the second
— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) JYT" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 6, 2024
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Stats Watch
There are no official statistics of interest today.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 57 Greed (previous close: 43 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 57 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Nov 6 at 2:00:00 PM ET.
Musical Interlude
Gram Parsons’ birthday was the other day:
Book Nook
“Report finds ‘shocking and dispiriting’ fall in children reading for pleasure” [nTk" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Guardian]. In the UK: “Children’s reading enjoyment has fallen to its lowest level in almost two decades, with just one in three young people saying that they enjoy reading in their free time, according to a new survey. Only 34.6% of eight- to 18-year-olds surveyed by the National Literacy Trust (NLT) said that they enjoy reading in their spare time. This is the lowest level recorded by the charity since it began surveying children about their reading habits 19 years ago, representing an 8.8 percentage point drop since last year. It is also part of a broader downward trend since 2016, when almost two in three children said that they enjoyed reading.” • That’s a steep drop-off!
Gallery
What color!
Bouquet of violets P8K F5y" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">pic.twitter.com/DAAxiqQzPc
— Edouard Manet (@artistmanet) Jk6" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 5, 2024
Finally!
Gorgeous time-lapse of Mt Fuji in Japan today and FINALLY, it’s capped with snow 😍Zgm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">pic.twitter.com/dvBkbKvBbO
— Volcaholic 🌋 (@volcaholic1) 9dn" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">November 5, 2024
News of the Wired
“Only 5.3% of welders in the US are women. After years as a writing professor, I became one − here’s what I learned” [zSV" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">The Conversation]. “Recognizing the good pay and job security, U.S. women have moved in greater numbers into skilled trades such as welding and fabrication within the past 10 years. From 2017 to 2022, the number of women in trades rose from about 241,000 to nearly 354,000. That’s an increase of about 47%. Even so, women still constitute just 5.3% of welders in the United States.” • Worth a read, particularly if you’re a woman thinking of entering the field.
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Milton:
1Lh" alt="" width="600" height="337" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-281730" srcset="1Lh 600w, hET 300w" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px"/>
Milton writes: “Fall Colors around of Big Pine along Hwy 395 in the Eastern Sierra. This was taken as I took the turn off to the Bristlecone Pine forests.”
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