2:00PM Water Cooler 10/30/2024 | naked capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 10/30/2024 | naked capitalism

by

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Common Nightingale, Rio Gilão–Ponte de São Domingues, Tavira, Faro, Portugal.

Come, hoatzin, the game is afoot:


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In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Biden does call Trump supporters “garbage”.
  2. About exit polling.
  3. Boeing contract talks resume..

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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2024

Countdown!

Friday’s lt7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">RCP Poll Averages:

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Lambert here: Tiny margins, but all red. If I were running the Kamala campaign, I’d want to see some blue. Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.

“How exit polls work and how NBC News uses them on election night” [CQR" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">NBC]. “An exit poll is a survey of voters taken as they leave (or exit) their voting location. It’s the only national survey of known voters in the country. It allows news organizations, researchers and voters to understand what’s happening in an election as the results flow in…. Since 2003, Edison Research, a firm that specializes in collecting election data, has conducted exit polls on behalf of the National Election Pool. The NEP is a consortium of media networks — ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC News — that pools together resources for one collective vote count and exit poll operation. NBC News independently analyzes and reports on the exit poll results… The NBC News Decision Desk uses some exit poll data to help project election results. However, the exit poll is primarily used as a reporting tool on election night.”

“What time will we get exit polls for the US election?” [The Telegraph]. “The embargo period for exit polls will end at 5pm ET on polling day, after which news organisations are allowed to begin reporting results from individual states. However, at this point they are not permitted to project a winner while voting is still taking place. Exit polls will only be announced in states where the margins are large enough and they will not be used in the battleground states to project whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump have won. Instead, statisticians will use a combination of the exit poll, actual declared votes and other data to forecast a winner. Along with establishing how respondents voted, the exit poll also questions voters on their demographics and what motivated their decision. If one candidate has a significant lead over the other, then the result may be clear within a matter of hours. However, a fine margin of victory will mean delays in how long it will take for experts to declare whether Ms Harris or Trump has come out on top. Previous contests have taken days or even weeks to be called.” • Exciting!

“US election exit polls: Process and timing for results” [RBC-Ukraine]. “On Election Day, over 3,000 Edison Research employees will be stationed at polling places across the US, sending data to the central team office. They will work alongside several hundred phone operators to promptly gather and process survey results. In the 2020 presidential election, Edison Research surveyed over 100,000 voters. The company also deployed employees to 200 early voting sites across the country. Before Election Day, approximately 30,000 people who voted by mail were interviewed by phone. In the 2024 election, a similar number of respondents is expected.”

“Georgia’s elections are over. Opposition exit polls show 40% for the ruling party, while government polls report over 51%” [JAM News]. “According to an exit poll conducted by Gorbi for the pro-government TV channel Imedi, the results of the parliamentary elections are as follows: Georgian Dream — 56.1%…. According to an exit poll by Edison Research for the TV channel Formula, the vote distribution is as follows: Georgian Dream — 40.9%.” • Normally, I would think of Edison Research as rather like a dull and boring public utility. Here, however, we find them involved in what looks awfully like Rose Revolution 2.0, complete with heavy NGO involvement, the usual street protests, pronouncements of election theft by Ursula von der Leyen, and no doubt a heavy leavening of spooks. Of course, even if the permission structure created by “Trump is Hitler” does allow spook-adjacency to Edison Research here at home, thinking that would actually happen is tinfoil hat stuff, right? I certainly hope so!

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“Nostradamus pollster reveals latest 2024 prediction – and how he’s never had ‘so much hate’ in an election” [Independent]. “Historian Allan Lichtman [of “Keys to the White House” fame] has insisted that he stands by his prediction about who will win the 2024 presidential race despite recent polls – and revealed that he has ‘never experienced’ so much ‘hate’ in an election cycle…. ‘I’ve been getting feedback that is vulgar, violent, threatening, and even beyond that, the safety and security of my family has been compromised.’”

“Why the race isn’t as close as you think: With one week to go, analyst CRAIG KESHISHIAN predicts the polls are missing a hidden voter surge” [Daily Mail]. “Americans living in Nevada and Arizona have had a front-row seat to the impact of mass illegal immigration under the Biden-Harris administration. In both of these states, registered Republican voters have cast more early ballots than registered Democrats — reversing a historic Democratic advantage. Of course, these early ballots do not reveal actual vote numbers, as they are not opened until Election Day. But this changing dynamic can’t be ignored. As of Sunday, Republicans held a 33,500 ballot lead or 5.2 percent of the total early vote. Last week, Jon Ralston, editor of the Nevada Independent, described the result as ‘unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle’ and said there is ‘no good news’ in the figures for Democrats.” • Nixon’s “silent majority” gets a do-over?

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“Garbage.” The video at :40:

I can see why Kamala’s campaign would want to say zqR" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">that Biden “misspoke,” but Biden’s “the only garbage I see floatin’ out there is his supporters” seems clear to me.

“Biden sets off election firestorm with ‘garbage’ comment” [Axios]. “President Biden handed ammo to gleeful Republicans Tuesday night when he seemed to refer to former President Trump’s supporters as “garbage.’” He didn’t “seem.” He did. More: “Biden’s comments are the latest example of why Kamala Harris’ team has been avoiding campaigning with him. Biden is both unpopular and undisciplined, Harris aides told Axios. Harris delivered her ‘closing argument’ speech Tuesday night in front of the White House but Biden did not appear alongside her despite being in Washington.” • Truly, Biden is the master of counter-programming (although I’m not clear on whether Biden delivered these remarks during Kamala’s speech).

“Trump calls for supporters to ‘forgive’ Biden in show of unity after president calls supporters ‘garbage’” [FOX]. “‘Wow. That’s terrible,’ Trump said, invoking Hillary Clinton’s infamous ‘deplorable’ remarks in the weeks before the 2016 election. ‘And then she said irredeemable. That didn’t work out.’ The Republican nominee called on his supporters to forgive him during a packed rally at the PPL Center in Allentown, Pennsylvania. ‘Garbage, I think, is worse,’ he said. ‘But he doesn’t know. You have to please forgive him.” • Cf. Luke 23:34.

“Joe Biden Walks Back Remarks About ‘Garbage’ At Madison Square Garden” [HuffPo]. The headline is deceptive. Biden was clearly tallking about Trump supporters (one of long line of similar Democrat comments, starting with Obama’s “bitter” people who “cling to guns and religion,” and moving on the Clinton’s “deplorables.” More: “Andrew Bates, a senior deputy press secretary at the White House, clarified that Biden was referring to the overarching rhetoric at the Manhattan rally as “garbage,” not the people there to support Trump. He released a transcript that included an apostrophe in the president’s remarks ― “his supporter’s demonization” ― to note the president was criticizing Hinchcliffe’s words.” • Nonsense. Comedians don’t have “supporters.” They have audiences.

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Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris Makes Her Final Pitch for Voters to ‘Turn the Page’ on Donald Trump” [Time]. “In a forceful, 30-minute speech, Harris asked voters to elect her and ‘turn the page’ on Trump. ‘We know what Donald Trump has in mind: more chaos, more division, and policies that help those at the very top and hurt everyone else. I offer a different path,’ she said. Harris compared Trump to a ‘petty tyrant’ who is ‘unstable,’ ‘obsessed with revenge,’ and wants ‘unchecked power.’ She said he wants back in the Oval Office, ;not to focus on your problems but to focus on his.’ Trump has signaled support for military tribunals for political enemies, promised to purge the federal bureaucracy of workers who don’t agree with him, and said he’d use the military against opponents he calls ‘the enemy within.’ Trump would come into the Oval Office with an ‘enemies list,’ Harris said. She’ll show up with a ‘to do list.’” • Not that dealing with deplorables and traitors won’t be things to do, of course. The list is a wonderful data structure!

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Kamala (D): “‘The suburbs — that’s the whole deal’: How the suburbs became Harris’ clearest path to victory” [Politico]. “Kamala Harris is counting on suburban voters to do what they’ve done since Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016: reject him. It may be the single most important piece of her electoral math. While Donald Trump has made inroads with Black and Latino men, polls in the late stage of the election show the suburbs could still power her to victory. The latest Wall Street Journal poll found Harris leading among suburban voters by 7 percentage points, while a Reuters/Ipsos analysis showed the vice president winning suburban households by 6 points. If either of those numbers hold, they would likely be enough to offset Harris’ erosion with Black, Latino and young men…. Inside the Harris campaign, aides said they believe they will improve on President Joe Biden’s performance with suburban voters in 2020, driven by college-educated voters and women who are turned off by the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and by the overturning of Roe v. Wade. That strategy is clear in the campaign’s schedule in the closing weeks of the campaign, as Harris hosts town halls with disaffected Republicans, like former Rep. Liz Cheney, and rallies focused on abortion rights.” • So abortion + genocide looks like a winning formula?

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Trump (R): “Trump 2.0: What Can We Expect from US Foreign Policy after the Elections?” [Valdai Discussion Club]. From July. “Ukraine is a large investment of American resources, attention, energy, symbolic capital, which the United States will not allow to immediately “collapse” without exchanging it for something valuable, even more valuable. Can the United States offer Russia anything in this trade? I highly doubt it. Unfortunately, Donald Trump’s first term showed that there was little platform for deep and meaningful negotiations that would produce lasting results. I am particularly convinced of this because there is no guarantee that any agreement with a possible future Trump administration will survive the end of that administration. We’ve seen this in some other major foreign policy situations in the past. … I doubt that American foreign policy interests in this crisis can imply an unconditional surrender of positions now concentrated not only in Ukraine, but throughout the entire circuit of allies that support Ukraine, supplies it with finances, weapons, intelligence data, trains Ukrainian military personnel, transfers from their own arsenals are sometimes the latest types of valuable weapons.” • Hence a “frozen conflict”?

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Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States ADP Employment Change” [Trading Economics]. “Private businesses in the US added 233K workers to their payrolls in October 2024, the most since July 2023, following an upwardly revised 159K rise in September and much higher than forecasts of 115K.”

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Manufacturing: “Boeing, Machinists union hold ‘productive’ talks in attempt to end strike” [oce" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Seattle Times]. “The latest attempt to break the stalemate comes after 64% of members of IAM District 751 voted to reject Boeing’s third contract offer, which would’ve hiked wages by 35% over four years. Pressure is mounting for the plane-maker to find a compromise as workers dig in, intent on reinstating pensions and making up for a decade of minimal pay increases. The IAM’s strike is the first major labor strife at Boeing in 16 years. Hourly workers are pushing for large pay increases and better retirement benefits, driven by resentment over receiving paltry wage increases in the past decade while senior executives were richly rewarded. The strike is taking a toll on Boeing. Instead of generating cash in the fourth quarter, the company now expects to burn through around $4 billion, which would bring total outflows for the year to $14 billion.” • “Resentment.” And the executives were not “richly rewarded.” They executed a controlled flight into terrain while looting the company.

Manufacturing: “NAM Tells Boeing Union Leadership to ‘Head Back to the Table’” [Manufacturing.net]. “National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons released the following statement: ‘The broader impact of this ongoing work stoppage is being seen across the aerospace sector as manufacturers within the supply chain are being forced to furlough employees and shutter operations. That’s why we’re urging union leadership to head back to the table and find a solution to end this prolonged strike and why we thank Acting Secretary of Labor Julie Su for her continued engagement.’” • Solidarity?!

Manufacturing: “How the revolving door at FAA spins Boeing’s way” [Seattle Times]. “In 2022 alone, the 20 highest-paid defense contractors hired 672 former government officials, military officers, members of Congress and senior legislative staff, according to a report commissioned by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. Boeing hired the most by far, 85. Boeing also hired more former government officials to executive positions than any other Pentagon contractor, the report showed… Political appointees at the agency pass through the revolving door to industry more frequently than civil service employees there, FAA spokesman Ian Gregor said. The average tenure for a political appointee at the agency is just 2 years and 2 months, while the average tenure of FAA civil servants is over 12 years. He noted that the FAA strives to abide by the restrictions on post-government employment that require cooling-off periods before representing their new employer in regulatory actions involving their former workplace. ‘We do not agree that there is a revolving door between the FAA and industry,’ Gregor said, noting that FAA follows the laws governing its employees who accept jobs in the aerospace industry. ;The FAA’s response would be laughable if it weren’t so discordant with the facts,’ said Dylan Hedtler-Gaudette, director of government affairs at the Project On Government Oversight, or POGO, a nonprofit government ethics watchdog. ‘For the FAA to claim that it is not a revolving door to industry is to tell us not to believe our lying eyes; truly Orwellian stuff.’”

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 60 Greed (previous close: 60 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 62 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 30 at 1:00:29 PM ET.

Permaculture

“Plants Find Light Using Gaps Between Their Cells” [Quanta]. “Since ancient times, plants’ ability to orient their eyeless bodies toward the nearest, brightest source of light — known today as phototropism — has fascinated scholars and generated countless scientific and philosophical debates… Yet a critical mystery has endured. Animals use eyes — a complex organ of lenses and photoreceptors — to gain a detailed picture of the world around them, including the direction of light. Plants, biologists have established, possess a powerful suite of molecular tools for measuring illumination. But in the absence of obvious physical sensing organs like lenses, how do plants work out the precise direction from which light is coming? Now, a team of European researchers has hit upon an answer. In a recent paper published in Science, they report that a roadside weed — Arabidopsis, a favorite of plant geneticists — uses the air spaces between its cells to scatter light, modifying the path of light passing through its tissues. In this way, the air channels create a light gradient that helps seedlings accurately determine where light is coming from. By taking advantage of air channels to scatter light, plants sidestep the need for discrete organs like eyes in favor of a neater trick: the ability in effect to ‘see’ with their whole bodies.” • Another premise for a science fiction novel!

Class Warfare

“The wages of the white working class” [0C8" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Kevin Drum]. Handy charts:

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News of the Wired

“The Secret Father of Modern Computing” [eWo" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">Every]. “We often picture tech disruptors as brash, dynamic figures who are keen to be both seen and heard. Yet the personal computing industry was largely sparked by a straight-talking ex-Air Force officer—one more Ron Swanson than Elon Musk. He ignored claims by IBM and others that people didn’t want a computer at home, and risked his whole company on a hunch that they were wrong. His approach to business was different from the ‘move fast and break things’ model we’ve come to expect from tech entrepreneurs, yet he succeeded beyond all expectations because of it. This is the story of Ed Roberts, the man who created the personal computer, launched the careers of Bill Gates and Steve Wozniak, and decided—at the height of his success—to walk away.” • Doesn’t sound like the tech bros we’ve come to know and love.

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:

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TH writes: “Plumaria-Naples Island residential garden.” A little undersized, but still pretty!

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