The cooling of relations between China and India began with a pact to decommission troops on their disputed border in the Himalayas, laying the groundwork for a reunion between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Brics summit in October.
Last week, the two countries’ defense chiefs held talks in Laos and pledged cooperation – the latest in a series of moves analysts have called a “strategic recalibration” in response to pressure from the West.
As Beijing seeks to reform the global economic architecture and New Delhi pursues its multidimensional foreign policy, their visions have proven more complementary than conflicting, as a bloody border conflict plunged ties to historic lows in June 2020.
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Numerous rounds of negotiations have taken place over the past four years, but it took a military withdrawal agreement in October to restore the positions of troops from both countries at pre-crisis locations in the border region of Ladakh.
According to Chietig Bajpaee, senior research fellow for South Asia at the Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House, the agreement followed “a recognition by New Delhi that it has backed itself into a corner after the conflicts”.
“De-escalation of border tensions [was] it is a prerequisite for engaging in other issues including the economy,” said Bajpaee, author of the book China in India’s engagement with Southeast Asia after the end of the Cold War.
Bajpaee said “economic and strategic pressures” facing the Asian giants played a role in their reconciliation, including a potentially volatile relationship with the US starting next year when President-elect Donald Trump begins his second term.
Tightening restrictions on foreign investment in Western countries have also prompted China to seek stable relations and deeper engagement with the global South, of which India is a key member, he said.
“India’s tensions with the West on issues ranging from relations with Russia to Canada have also confirmed the need for New Delhi to maintain a multidimensional foreign policy.”
Veteran journalist Kalinga Seneviratne, who lectures at Shinawatra University in Bangkok, said New Delhi was concerned about Washington’s “joint pressure” to end India’s long-standing trade with Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.
There is also a perception in India that the US has quietly backed Canada over its recent differences with India, which were sparked by the killing of a prominent Sikh activist in June, he said.
Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen who advocated for an independent Khalistan, was shot dead outside a temple in Surrey, British Columbia. India strongly denied involvement in his death and recently accused Canada of harboring violent extremists.
“Contradictions with Canada over its alleged harboring of Sikh ‘terrorists’ and accusations of Indian diplomats being involved in the murder of a Sikh community leader in Canada have sparked some anti-Western sentiment in India, particularly in the media.”
According to Seneviratny, despite attempts by Beijing and New Delhi to improve relations, some efforts have been slowed by “strong sentiments among Indians that the Chinese cannot be trusted”.
Seneviratne noted that for at least the past two years, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has repeatedly referred to the two countries’ shared history when asked about the Chinese “threat” by Western journalists.
“Over the past two years, [Jaishankar] it still points out that the two countries are ancient civilizations that have lived peacefully side by side for 5,000 years,” he said.
Seneviratne, author Geopolitics and Media in Asia and the Pacific: Pulling in Different Directionshe said that the widespread Western media in India “has played a major role in fueling Sinophobia”.
“But Indians are not crazy, they see the plot clearly,” he said.
According to Seneviratny, when it comes to reforming the global architecture, “India and China are on the same wavelength, along with Russia and Brazil.”
He added that the Indian business sector had been pressing New Delhi to mend fences with Beijing by lifting trade restrictions imposed after the dispute in 2020.
Bajpaee said India is increasingly realizing that it cannot fulfill its ambitions to become a global manufacturing hub without sourcing components and raw materials from China.
“Indian corporations have lobbied for relaxation of visa rules and investment restrictions [and] Indian companies are also looking at ways to help Chinese companies enter the Indian market, although investment restrictions will remain in place for politically sensitive sectors,” he said.
According to Seneviratny, Beijing also wants India to play a more active role in the Brics grouping of emerging economies and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to avoid spoiling its mission to “reform the global economic architecture”.
“For Brics to succeed, India and China must work together. Both countries see themselves as leaders or spokespeople for the Global South – if they can do this together, it will be a formidable alliance,” he said.
Colombo-based journalist and researcher Rathindra Kuruwita said in recent years there have been signs that containment policies imposed on China by the West could be applied to India as its economic prowess grows – hence a “strategic recalibration” of both countries .
“The evolving global order, characterized by shifting alliances and emerging blocs such as Brics, has underscored the importance of cooperation between India and China. Both countries aim to assert their influence in multilateral forums, making improved bilateral ties strategically advantageous.”
According to Kuruwit, progress in China-India relations can be expected in the resumption of direct flights and other areas of people-to-people exchanges, as pointed out by Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister.
“Simplification of visa processes is likely to promote tourism, business travel and academic exchanges. The two sides also discussed improving media cooperation by allowing the exchange of journalists to promote better mutual understanding,” Kuruwita said.
Seneviratne noted that Beijing and New Delhi were “very strict” in granting visas for academic exchanges between the two countries.
“There needs to be more interaction between them… Visa liberalization can help,” he said, adding that student exchange opportunities should be increased.
