BEIRUT (AP) – Hezbollah had little chance of helping protect former Syrian President Bashar Assad, a longtime ally, from the uprising that ousted him. With Assad gone, the militia in Lebanon has weakened.
Hezbollah was hit hard during the 14 month war with Israel. The downfall of Assad, who had strong ties with Iran, has crippled its ability to recover by cutting off a vital arms supply route through Syria.
Hezbollah officials are very concerned but critical.
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“What is happening in Syria is a big, dangerous and new change, and knowing why this happened needs to be investigated,” Hassan Fadlallah, the Lebanese ambassador representing the political party Hezbollah, said at a speech at the funeral of soldiers killed by Israel. “Whatever is happening in Syria, even if it’s dangerous, it doesn’t bother us.”
Analysts say Hezbollah’s decline will have far-reaching consequences for Lebanon, where it has for decades been a major political player – and for Iran, which has relied on the group as one of several emerging powers in the Middle East. It is also a game-changer for Israel, whose enemies on its northern border are now at their most vulnerable in decades.
The alliance with Syria led to the rise and fall of Hezbollah’s power
The Assad regime, which ruled Syria for half a century with an iron fist, played a key role in empowering Hezbollah, which was founded in the early 1980s by Iranian advisers who came through Syria. In addition to being a conduit for Iranian weapons, Syria was also a place where Hezbollah trained fighters and developed its weapons.
As Hezbollah grew in power, it became a force Assad could rely on to defend in times of crisis. Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters to reinforce Assad’s forces when the civil war began in 2011.
As rebels swept into Syria in early December and took the city of Homs – a short distance from the Syrian border town where Hezbollah was based – many expected the militants to fight fiercely. After all, they did exactly that in 2013, preventing Assad’s opponents from entering Damascus.
This time, Hezbollah was not stable. Many of its top officials, including longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, were killed in Israeli attacks. And months of Israeli bombing destroyed much of its military. With Syria’s international allies, Russia and Iran, on side, Hezbollah withdrew, and Assad was quickly ousted.
“The fall of the regime marks the end of Iran’s hands in Syria and Lebanon,” said Lt. Col. Fares al-Bayoush, a supporter of the Syrian army fought in the civil war with the forces of Assad and Hezbollah until 2017, when he went to Teki.
Lebanon begins conflict with Hezbollah ‘new reality’
In Lebanon, the loss of Hezbollah’s power has given the army the opportunity to regain control of what it had relinquished, especially on its southern border. The US-imposed ceasefire between the militant group and Israel says Hezbollah should not have weapons on that border and has led to growing calls within Lebanon to disarm the group.
“For Hezbollah, the game is over,” Samir Geagea, head of the Christian Lebanese Forces Party, said in a speech on Sunday, hours after the rebels took over Damascus. “Stay with the Lebanese army to end your status as an armed group, and turn yourself into a political party.”
But Hezbollah’s long-term dominance of the political arena in Lebanon is also facing a major challenge.
Many in Lebanon resented the group. Critics say Hezbollah broke its promise to use its weapons only to defend Lebanon when it began firing stones into Israel last year, the day after Hamas – another Iran-backed group – attacked Israel.
Nearly 4,000 people have been killed in Lebanon during the war with Israel, according to the country’s health ministry. All towns and villages where Hezbollah fighters and their supporters lived were captured by force. More than 1 million people have been displaced, and the country’s economy—which was bad before the war—is in a deep hole.
“With the (Syrian) government gone, Hezbollah in Lebanon is facing a completely new challenge,” said Firas Maksad, of the Middle East Institute.
Maksad said many Lebanese leaders still do not understand the magnitude of the change that has taken place. Even some former Hezbollah allies in parliament have begun to distance themselves from the group.
Gebran Bassil, a lawmaker representing the Free Patriotic Movement, Lebanon’s main Christian party, said losing Hezbollah’s arms pipeline from Iran could help Lebanon distance itself from the regional conflict.
“Hezbollah needs to focus on the interior of the country and not the wider region,” Bassil, a former Hezbollah aide, said.
It may have no choice but to curtail its intentions. With the fall of Assad, Iran lost control of the land corridor that stretched through Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean, and that provided an unblocked way to supply Hezbollah.
“They can fly in some things and smuggle some things in, but it won’t be on the same scale, not even close,” said Aron Lund, a Syria expert with Century International, a New York-based think tank.
For Israel, breaking Iran’s regional network has become a major goal, even as it is wary of Islamist forces among the rebels who toppled Assad. Israel on Sunday deployed troops into the demilitarized zone with Syria and the Israeli-held Golan Heights in what it called a temporary security measure.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the fall of Assad “a historic day,” saying “it was the result of our strength against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main supporters.”