Week 14 was average for your faithful side of sleepers. Tennessee’s running game did little and the tight ends failed — Will Dissly’s injury didn’t help. On the plus side, Adam Thielen wasn’t a tough pick, but he came through and Sincere McCormick was solid. We’ll see if we can build on things in Week 15.
Since it’s the fantasy playoffs and all 32 NFL teams are playing, I’m going to give the standard caveat – I hope your team is loaded with players who are basically self-starters. I hope you’re playing a lot of hits this week and not looking too hard for overlooked options. That said, leagues vary in size and depth, and I know that in some of the bigger pools, the selection is tougher.
RB Honest McCormick vs. Falcons (35%)
The more McCormick I see, the more I like it. Hits the hole quickly and usually gets what is blocked plus some extra yards. His run success rate is an outstanding 62.5%, which is why head coach Antonio Pierce praised McCormick this week. And with the Raiders being slight underdogs against Atlanta, I’m not worried about a game scenario that forces McCormick off the game plan. This could be the week he struggles for 100 yards.
RB Isaiah Davis at Jaguars (17%)
In order for this pick to qualify, Breece Hall must be out for another week. Watch closely for news about it. Without Hall last Sunday, the Jets split the backfield work evenly between Braelon Allen and Davis — and Davis showed more snap. Credit the Jets for finding two value running backs in the 2024 draft. Now the task is pleasant, a date with a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the second-most points against running backs. Davis has a decent chance to push into double-digit touches again, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he passed Allen.
QB Jameis Winston vs. Chiefs (34%)
I know the Chiefs are cruising along at 12-1, but don’t worry about this game or this defense. Kansas City has actually allowed an 11th-ranked fantasy ranking to opposing quarterbacks. And Winston can exceed expectations – in 5 out of 6 starts he scored more points than his fantasy. Sure, there will be some mistakes, at least one pick, a couple of missed throws. But the Browns are likely to throw the ball 40 or more times — often needing to blow up their slow running game — and Winston has talented receivers to work with even if David Njoku isn’t available.
TE Zach Ertz at Saints (49%)
A few weeks ago, I wondered if the 34-year-old Ertz could maintain his fantasy potential throughout the season, which is now silly. After all, he’s on a three-touchdown streak and has established himself as the second most important target in Washington’s passing game. And with Noah Brown out of the picture, Ertz could see an expanded target share. Considering Ertz is the TE10 for the season, I’m impressed his roster is in such a reasonable place. However, some of you may jump in and take advantage of its availability.
TE Hunter Henry at Cardinals (44%)
Let’s start with some cold water — the Cardinals have defended tight ends well this year, and Henry doesn’t offer much scoring parity; stuck at one touchdown for the season. But he’s often the first read for impressive rookie QB Drake Maye, who has absorbed 26 targets over the past three games and turned them into a credible 18-170-0 line. I will consider Henry as a deeper flex option for some of my 14+ manager leagues.
WR Elijah Moore vs. Chiefs (21%)
There were setbacks in Moore’s game – he crushed Denver and New Orleans, but fell short twice against Pittsburgh. But Moore will likely be needed here, with Njoku and Cedric Tillman a question mark. It also helps with Kansas City’s defense on the roster — the Chiefs often struggle in seam coverage, which encourages opponents to target tight ends and slot receivers. I envision eight or more targets for Moore on game day and a very playable WR3 or flex return for those deeper pools.
TE Stone Smartt vs. Buccaneers (1%)
As we mentioned in the introduction, Dissly injured his shoulder in the loss to Kansas City. That opened the door for Smartt, and he immediately performed — three catches, 54 yards. It’s a fun story, as Smartt was the quarterback for most of his journeyman college career and opened the season ranked No. 4 on the team’s depth chart. This pick gets a little extra juice if star rookie WR Ladd McConkey is scratched or limited on game day. Tampa Bay has also struggled with seam coverage all year.