Judging 5 early-season men’s college basketball overreactions

The 2024-25 season is not even two weeks outdated. However in males’s faculty basketball, we’re usually fast to research groups, gamers and coaches primarily based on restricted outcomes. It is already taking place.

North Florida seems like a scary Cinderella candidate after wins over South Carolina and Georgia Tech final week. Get your brackets prepared. Cooper Flagg? He is unimaginable. However a gaggle of detractors have already used one rocky stretch in opposition to him. In a loss to Baylor, John Calipari’s Arkansas squad, capturing 25% from past the arc, appeared just like the Kentucky groups that grappled with late-game executions in Calipari’s remaining seasons there.

And No. 1 Kansas won’t be No. 1? Why could not Alabama rating for nine-plus minutes in opposition to McNeese? Does Houston have Last 4 expertise after dropping All-American Jamal Shead?

We’re simply right here so as to add gasoline to these flames. We’re going that will help you resolve if a few of the early declarations in regards to the high groups, coaches and gamers of this season are truthful or overblown. We’re prepared to affix you in a season filled with overreactions.

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Kentucky is a nationwide championship contender once more

With new head coach Mark Pope, the No. 19 Wildcats averaged 101.5 factors of their first two video games — wins over Wright State and Bucknell. However victories over a pair of sub-150 groups on KenPom provided a restricted alternative to judge this staff’s ceiling. After which, the Wildcats met No. 6 Duke on the Champions Basic in Atlanta on Tuesday. They left State Farm Enviornment with an exhilarating 77-72 victory after they corralled Cooper Flagg within the remaining possessions of the sport.

Kentucky needed to get better from a double-digit deficit however Pope’s group by no means wilted underneath the stress in opposition to a top-10 opponent. A 40% clip from past the arc — Kentucky began 9-for-20 from the 3-point line — and the collective effort from Otega Oweh (15 factors) and Andrew Carr (17 factors) helped safe among the best wins of the season so far.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

It is early. Very early. Let’s begin there. However, at this level, the pool of potential title contenders — in a males’s faculty basketball local weather which may not characteristic the identical dominant UConn staff we have seen over the previous two seasons — is huge. On Tuesday evening, Kentucky proved it belongs in that blend. That grind-it-out effort over a Duke staff with three projected NBA draft lottery picks was spectacular due to the best way the Wildcats gained. It was a battle down the stretch, and so they made late performs to get the victory.

However there are issues. Kentucky doesn’t but have a participant who can constantly get his personal shot in clutch conditions. The Wildcats will want that to make a Last 4 run, it appears. Till then, they’re capturing at a wonderful clip from the 3-point line, and so they’re exhibiting robust defensive capabilities. It seems Pope has the items to cope with the Wildcats, who would possibly put the lukewarm ending of Calipari’s reign behind them.

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Flagg, younger stars will doom Duke’s nationwide title aspirations

The one-and-done period has not produced many one-and-done nationwide championship stars. And but three potential top-10 NBA draft picks — Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach — anchor what may very well be Jon Scheyer’s most profitable season as Duke’s head coach.

In opposition to Kentucky on Tuesday, the freshman trio mixed to attain 50 factors. And the Blue Devils had a wholesome lead — till cramping points started to have an effect on Maluach’s efficiency. General, the younger gamers had been fabulous, as they’ve been to begin this season. However Flagg’s late turnovers and tunnel imaginative and prescient within the remaining seconds provided a reminder that it is by no means simple to make a Last 4 run — or win an enormous recreation — with a roster led by youngsters.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

First, every little thing that Flagg did Tuesday — earlier than these late missteps — justified all the preseason buzz. He was an awesome defender. He performed level guard on a number of possessions. He was a power within the paint and he was probably the most impactful participant on the courtroom. It is unfair to take a look at his remaining possessions and query something about his recreation, when the explanation Duke even had an opportunity to seal a win late was due to that effort. Knueppel and Maluach had elite contributions on the large stage, too.

Not all one-and-done prospects are created equal. However Duke’s group may very well be particular, and this trio proved as a lot all through most of Tuesday evening. The three will proceed to develop. Although solely Kentucky (2012) and Duke (2015) have gained nationwide titles with freshman leaders within the post-2006 NBA draft years (the one-and-done period), Duke actually appears to have younger management that would assist this system be a part of that brief listing.

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Kyle Neptune’s tenure is in severe jeopardy at Villanova

In 2022, Jay Wright abruptly retired after profitable nationwide titles in 2016 and 2018. Wright left simply as NIL guidelines and the expansive impression of the switch portal had begun to vary the panorama of the game. Neptune, who’d been a Villanova assistant underneath Wright and the top coach for a yr at Fordham, was employed as his successor.

For probably the most half, each legendary coach’s successor has struggled. UCLA had 4 coaches in 10 years after John Wood retired. Matt Doherty understood the North Carolina tradition as a former participant, however he could not maintain the observe report established by Dean Smith. And Kevin Ollie gained a nationwide title at UConn after Jim Calhoun retired, however his tenure ended after back-to-back sub-.500 seasons. Neptune is 2-2 in his third season, after losses to Columbia and Saint Joseph’s, a pair of sub-100 groups on KenPom. It feels as if he wants his first NCAA event look to avoid wasting his job.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Wright, who gained 520 video games with the Wildcats, established a powerful normal any successor would have struggled to increase. It is why so many teaching candidates select in opposition to following a legend. Neptune accepted the job as faculty basketball was being reshaped in actual time. That has been an impediment for many coaches, together with the veterans. However Neptune didn’t have a number of expertise as a head coach — which didn’t assist his trigger.

After the Wildcats’ loss to Columbia — their second consecutive loss to an Ivy League opponent — Neptune mentioned, “It’s what it’s.” A remark that didn’t sit effectively with some supporters, who’re trying to find an indication of hope for his or her staff’s season.

The 39-year-old head coach is now 37-34 in his tenure, with out a postseason look. And the report isn’t the one concern. Legacies do not matter as a lot on this NIL and portal period; a heralded program can lose each key participant from one season to the subsequent and grow to be an afterthought. The truth of the game will solely improve the pressures on Neptune, who clearly wants a turnaround to be ok with his job safety.

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Kansas’ rotation is overcrowded

After Kevin McCullar Jr. sustained a foot harm within the second half of final season, he barely might apply with the staff. A pissed off coach Invoice Self acknowledged that 2023-24 staff simply lacked the depth to compete with out the all-Massive 12 choice. He vowed to keep away from the identical scenario sooner or later.

So he introduced in Zeke Mayo (South Dakota State), AJ Storr (Wisconsin), Rylan Griffen (Alabama) and David Coit (Northern Illinois) to reinforce a Kansas rotation that helped safe a top-10 win over North Carolina in Lawrence final week and defeat Michigan State within the Champions Basic.

The latter recreation additionally featured some sloppy moments, although, as gamers proceed to study their roles for the No. 1-ranked Jayhawks. Self lastly has the depth he has craved however does he have room for all the new expertise?

Verdict: OVERREACTION

This staff already has an All-American middle in Hunter Dickinson and a pair of veterans (Dajuan Harris Jr., KJ Adams Jr.). On Tuesday, Self admitted his staff would want extra time to construct chemistry to reply in key moments.

However there may be room for each participant, too, even when that does not imply at all times taking part in a major function because the season progresses. Storr, Coit and five-star prospect Flory Bidunga give Kansas a rotation that will not expertise a significant drop-off when Self turns to his bench, and there are a number of scorers who might help the Jayhawks climate the storm in powerful occasions.

Mayo did every little thing for South Dakota State final season. Issues are totally different for him in Lawrence. Griffen, Self mentioned, has to get extra comfy within the offense, and Storr should additionally adapt by taking part in an environment friendly recreation as a substitute of speeding some pictures the best way he has via three video games. This isn’t a rotation challenge, although. The Jayhawks simply want extra time collectively to solidify a lineup that may very well be nation’s finest.

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It is too early to guage John Calipari’s begin at Arkansas

Throughout his introductory information convention within the spring, Calipari mentioned he had no staff, as each participant on the roster had entered the switch portal. He constructed a staff from scratch with five-star prospects and key transfers, corresponding to former high prospect D.J. Wagner and former Florida Atlantic star Johnell Davis.

What was purported to be a strong roster has additionally handled a large number of accidents, although. Tennessee switch Jonas Aidoo has performed restricted minutes whereas recovering from an offseason harm whereas ahead Trevon Brazile performed solely 9 minutes within the staff’s win over Troy earlier this week. Calipari has mentioned they’ve needed to apply with solely 5 gamers at occasions. The harm bug has already been a major storyline for the Razorbacks in Calipari’s first season. Ought to we be anxious?

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Arkansas has related on solely 30.8% of its 3-point makes an attempt, and ended the week ranked within the 60s on KenPom in adjusted offensive effectivity. Final season, Calipari had the highest 3-point capturing staff within the nation — and nonetheless misplaced within the first spherical of the NCAA event. The Razorbacks, who’re a top-10 defensive staff, haven’t been in sync so far. That is OK. They will enhance, particularly as soon as they’re wholesome.

However faculty basketball can be a protracted, five-month affair, and Arkansas has solely 9 standout gamers when totally wholesome. These accidents are an ominous signal for an already shorthanded crew. Calipari has expertise in Fayetteville — he simply won’t have sufficient to get this group to the end line. Which is why the early critiques of this staff appear affordable. Arkansas won’t have the depth to achieve its ceiling over the subsequent 30-plus video games.