Another week, another round of all-important start/sit decisions. To help you achieve them, here’s a look at six players with the potential to fall in Week 13.
Something to keep in mind as you read: a fade or bust doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or the options available on your waiver wire.
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Okay, okay. Hear me out.
This is by no means a call to claim fantasy football’s overall QB1 for the year — by any stretch of the imagination. However, it is my duty as the local “buss and fades” commentator to warn of potential landmines in your lineups – not only to warn you of players you should avoid entirely for fantasy, but also to advise when the stats say a player’s cap might be lower than usual. After all, this knowledge can change the way you approach setting up the rest of your build.
Lamar Jackson had the safest floor of any fantasy quarterback this season; he finished outside the top 12 just once (Week 11 vs. Steelers) and finished as a top-5 QB in seven of 12 games this season — a perfect combination of upside and safety at a position we’ve barely seen before . This week, Jackson will face a surging Eagles defense that has made great strides in both coverage and run defense in the second half of the season.
Thermal control 🔥 You still start Lamar Jackson in every one of your seasonal fantasy lineups; just brace yourself for a potential week of decline.
RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
James Conner’s fantasy managers have been on a wild ride so far this season, with his production anywhere between his 21-122-1 line in Week 2 to his 7 carries, 8 rushes in Week 12. Like I said – and a rollercoaster. However, the down weeks seem to be a bit more frequent. He’s averaged just over 50 rushing yards per game over the last four games (37.3 yards receiving). In that span, he averaged 3.53 yards per carry and a 22.8% completion rate, which ranks sixth among the 26 RBs with 50+ carries from Week 8.
In addition to declining in recent weeks, Conner has a tough matchup on the boards with the Minnesota Vikings — one of the most formidable defensive forces in the league this season. The Vikings lead the league with an 86.1 PFF defensive grade, the fourth-lowest average tackle depth (3.41 yards) and a league-low 27 missed tackles. Minnesota’s defense is tied for five rushing TDs allowed this year in the league, allowing the second-lowest average YPC (3.6), second-fewest yards after contact per attempt (2.4) and third-lowest explosive run rate (9.4% ), all post the second-lowest fantasy PPG against opposing RBs.
Thermal control 🔥 As the starting running back behind a good (if inconsistent) offense, it’s tough to bench Conner. However, with all 32 teams playing this week, you have more options than in Week 12. If you have better flex options (such as Bucky Irving), feel free to run them over Conner this week.
RB Jeremy McNichols, Washington Commanders
I have a clear feeling that Jeremy McNichols will be on a lot of sleeper lists this week as an “in case of emergency” button. Commander starting RB Brian Robinson Jr. is dealing with a high ankle sprain and his status is unknown for Week 13. Meanwhile, teammate Austin Ekeler is in the concussion protocol after taking a brutal hit on a kickoff return in the same game . That leaves McNichols, Mr. RB3, to fill his shoes.
Even if McNichols starts in Week 13, he will have a tough matchup on the board against the Tennessee Titans, who have been a stout defense this season. The Titans have the fourth-highest-rated rushing defense this year, tied for the fifth-lowest YPC allowed (4.0), seventh-lowest rushing yards per attempt (2.7) and fourth-fewest rushing yards per attempt . loss or no gain in this range at PFF.
Thermal control 🔥 McNichols remains on fantasy benches in most fantasy leagues, even if he gets to start and see volume.
WR Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
It’s no secret that the Kliff Kingsbury-led Washington Commanders offense has cooled off since their hot start to the season. Terry McLaurin, in particular, has been a huge beneficiary of improved quarterback play, sitting pretty as the WR5 overall in half-PPR scoring formats, averaging a career 15.8 YPR while already tying his previous career high of seven touchdown passes in 12 games. .
The Titans are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs, yet haven’t given up a single game of more than 18 fantasy points this year despite facing solid competition (Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Garrett Wilson). This team is allowing the third-lowest completion percentage in the league to WRs this season at 45.7% per NGN stat, giving up the fourth-fewest yards per target and fifth-fewest completions all season. (59%).
Thermal control 🔥 Put McLaurin in your Week 13 lineups, but with the expectation that another 86-yard home run to save the day is your best bet on a big fantasy day.
WR Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
There’s no doubt that Buffalo Bills WR Khalil Shakir has been one of the top safeties in the league this year. He has reliable hands for days with an 87.5% catch rate last season that leads all WRs (min. 50 targets, including postseason). He’s also incredibly efficient with his opportunities and a 124.5 passer rating on targets (third-highest), while averaging 7.7 yards per catch (fourth-highest). However, Week 13 could challenge his typically safe floor.
Shakir’s consistent volume (7+ targets in each of the last five games) has made him a popular flex/sleeper option on any given week. However, the San Francisco 49ers could be a limiting factor for him in Week 13, even if there are some empty targets over center in the absence of the injured Dalton Kincaid. Even though the Niners are a bit of a dump right now, LB Fred Warner remains the glue that holds their coverage in the middle of the field together. Warner continues to establish himself as one of the best coverage players in the league, limiting slot receivers in a big way. Since Week 7, the 49ers are allowing the second-lowest EPA per game on slot machines (-0.176), while giving up 0 TDs, 3 INTs and have a league-lowest 46.3 passer rating on such plays. Shakir, who has operated primarily out of the slot at a 75.8% clip this season, could see his effectiveness drop in this spot.
Thermal control 🔥 Shakir is a great addition for the bye week, but with all 32 teams in the mix, his ceiling isn’t high enough to risk a slump week in a tough matchup.
TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off Week 12, which means TE Evan Engram is freshly rested and ready to take on any work he can handle. He should have a lot of work to do this week as the team received more bad injury news before the bye as WR Gabe Davis was lost for the season to a knee injury after Christian Kirk (also out for the season with a broken collarbone). While he sees some decent volume, he may not be a great matchup on a big fantasy day.
In Week 13, the Jaguars get into a tough intramural matchup with the Houston Texans — a matchup that has seen TEs perform disappointingly for even the best in the league. Houston ranks 27th with 7.51 fantasy points allowed to opposing TEs (3.3-25.5-0.4 average line), while averaging the third-lowest EPA on dropbacks and a league-lowest 39. 1% on target for the TE position at NFL Next Generation Stats.
Thermal control 🔥 Engram should have a solid floor in half and full PPR scoring formats due to the necessity of target volume, but don’t expect much efficiency. That defense allowed just three TEs to break the 50-yard mark all season.