Family arguments are best kept behind closed doors. When families argue in public, everyone else tends to turn away when uncomfortable and deeply personal secrets spill out. That is, unless you’re talking about the reality TV show that is the 2024 college football season… where everyone has a significant investment in how everyone else’s family squabbles play out.
It’s Rivalry Week in college football, traditionally a time when programs — like family members — meet their oldest enemies. And like Thanksgiving dinner where you’re interrogated about why you’re not as successful as your cousin, Rivalry Week has intensely local implications.
Most years outside of Georgia, it doesn’t really matter who wins Georgia-Georgia Tech; outside of Tennessee, the Tennessee-Vanderbilt score is crawling across the bottom of the screen and nothing more.
Most years.
One of the many happy unintended consequences of an expanded college football playoff is a new meaning for rivalries outside of their state. In days gone by, a loss in a rivalry game could eliminate a school from championship contention. Now, a rivalry loss can set off a cascade that opens up playoff spots, championship game spots, even the first round.
Consider how much the CFP picture could change based on who wins the family fistfight this weekend:
Palmetto Bowl (Clemson vs. South Carolina): A win here will keep Clemson in the hunt for the ACC Championship and the playoffs. A win for South Carolina would legitimize the Gamecocks’ season, provide hope for the future … and make them regret that the LSU game got away from them. Plus, it would be one hurdle for Alabama or Ole Miss to sneak back into the CFP.
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt: Irrelevant at best before this year, the Tennessee-Vanderbilt game now carries considerable weight. Vanderbilt has shown it has the ability to knock off the SEC’s top teams, and Tennessee can’t afford another loss to stay comfortably in the CFP.
Notre Dame vs. USC: The Jeweled Shillelagh Trophy is finally as important as its participants think it is again. At stake here: Notre Dame’s spot in the CFP. The Irish strength of schedule is already suspect, and that early season loss to Northern Illinois is lurking there, just waiting to destroy Notre Dame’s season. A 6-5 loss to USC would have eliminated Notre Dame’s playoff chances. No pressure, Irish.
Indiana vs. Purdue: Another of the most important matches of the weekend. Ohio State blasted Indiana’s flawless season last week; Purdue could have completely ditched him. Two losses could make the playoffs, Georgia, Tennessee or Ohio State; Two-loss Indiana probably won’t. And as with Clemson, Notre Dame and Tennessee above, an Indiana loss would raise the hopes of several other programs.
Pure Old Fashioned Hate (Georgia vs. Georgia Tech): Georgia has already secured a berth in the SEC Championship, meaning its path to the CFP is clear. But a loss to the Yellow Jackets would make Georgia’s SEC Championship run a must: win or else.
Duel in the Desert (Arizona State vs. Arizona): The stakes for Arizona State are clear: win and the Sun Devils will be in the Big 12 Championship and play for a spot in the CFP. (There’s , but that’s a narrow path.) A loss, and suddenly BYU, Iowa State and Colorado have new playoff hopes.
The Iron Bowl (Auburn vs. Alabama): Regardless of the slim hopes, Alabama still needs to make the CFP field rest on this play. Alabama needs to win, and preferably win big, to keep its flickering chances alive. Good thing nothing strange ever happened in the iron bowl.
Game (Ohio State vs. Michigan): For Ryan Day, this is really more of a job security issue than a playoff berth, as Ohio State could afford to lose this one and still make the CFP field. But Day is 1-3 against Michigan, including three straight, and if his Buckeye battleship can’t beat a sagging Michigan this year, the murmurs will only get louder.
The Egg Bowl + Florida State vs. Florida: Mississippi, Ole Miss, Florida State and Florida State have all played each other this year, whether it was last weekend (Ole Miss) or back in September (Florida State). But these two rivalries should soon have a significant impact on two separate conferences if these teams can get their act together again. Mind you, the kind of chaos that emanates from these games deserves national playoff ramifications.
Of note: Rivalry games carry more weight because there are no mandated conference slots outside of the opening round. The SEC could end up with just two slots this year … and we wouldn’t have the drama if the league got four slots. All the more reason why preseason predictions and conference chest-pounding are fine, but results on the field are paramount… and the drama they create should be preserved.
It all adds up to mean that rivalry week means more overall this year than ever before. So yes, we’re all paying attention to your family squabbles now. Act accordingly… and don’t lose.