point guard
Start: Cooper Rush, Cowboys
Is cooper rush good? Of course not. Does it matter? Just a little. The Cowboys have allowed Rush to go over it with a +6% completion rate over the past two weeks.
Rush has 601 yards and three touchdowns in those two games. Vegas wouldn’t normally shop for a backup quarterback after just one win, but the Cowboys face a declining Giants defense with a backup quarterback of their own on the other side of the ball. The Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites with a total of 20.25. That’s ahead of the Bears on Thursday and the Raiders on…Friday. Now we play football on Friday, really? Rush is a viable QB2 with sneaky potential in DFS.
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Sitting: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
I don’t know who the Giants quarterback is and taking a quarterback with the next lowest team on Thanksgiving (Caleb Williams) was too easy. Tua isn’t a complete fade this week, but it’s a tough spot for a signal caller in Miami. The Packers are eighth in the EPA for dropbacks allowed and have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Dolphins are road underdogs with a team total just 1.5 points ahead of the Rush’s Cowboys. Game totals are also down slightly, likely due to the temperature, which will be in the 20s around kickoff.
Tagovailoa posted terrible numbers outside of the heat in Miami. In games with a kickoff temperature of 55 or below, Tua has averaged 219 yards and 1.2 touchdowns over the last three seasons, a paltry 13.7 fantasy points.
Running back
Start: Rico Dowdle, Cowboys
Dowdle finished taking over Dallas’ backup last week with a season-high 70 percent for the Cowboys. He tied his season high in touchdowns (22) and amassed 98 yards from scrimmage. The Giants have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs and sit 27th in the EPA in attempts allowed.
Sitting: D’Andre Swift, Bears
Like most running backs, Swift does better when his team wins. Unlike some running backs, he doesn’t have the role or effectiveness to survive most of Chicago’s losses. Swift goes from the number of RB3 losses to the top production of the RB1 in rare Bears wins.
As a 10-point underdog this week, a Bears win is as unlikely as they come. Swift also relinquished the goal-line role to Roschon Johnson, making the touchdown even more difficult.
Wide receiver
Start: Jameson Williams, Lions
The Bears are a great defense as a whole, but their inability to prevent punt gains has been one glaring leak in the unit this year. Chicago ranks 32nd in explosive pass rush allowed (16.8 percent) and 27th in YPA on deep throws. Williams saw 37 percent of the Lions’ deep targets despite missing two games. He leads the team with 161 yards and two scores on deep runs.
Seated: DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs
The second edition of the Week 13 Start Sits comes out Friday for Sunday’s games, but we can talk about the Chiefs vs. Raiders matchup here. No Chiefs wide receivers can’t be played. DeAndre Hopkins ran a route on 45 percent of the team’s punt returns last week and has had route speed below 50 percent over the past two weeks. He has 10 goals in the last two games and a 15 percent goal share since joining the Chiefs.
Tight end
Start: Jonnu Smith, Dolphins
Smith leads the Dolphins with a 22 percent target share since the team’s Week 6 bye. His 25 percent first-read goal share also spurs the team. He is fourth in yards per route and fifth in ESPN open scoring among tight ends. Even though Tua is struggling, Smith has played well enough and gets the ball often enough to get home against a Packers defense that has allowed the 10th most fantasy points this year.
Sitting: Sam LaPorta, Lions
LaPorta’s role seemed to be moving in the right direction before a shoulder injury sidelined him in Week 11. In the following game, he returned to the low-volume performance he’s played most of this season, picking up five goals on a 16 percent goal share. LaPorta is nothing more than a Week 13 TE2.