It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player’s performance. But never fear – Dalton Del Don is here to measure exactly how afraid we should be – if at all.
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
McCaffrey continues to test the patience of his fantasy managers as he would be just RB29 on the season in 0.5 PPR fantasy points per game (10.9). Last week can be blamed on a San Francisco offense that was missing Brock Purdy and Trent Williams, but CMC’s numbers have dipped in the three games since returning. He’s averaging a career-low 3.5 YPC and his fewest YPT since 2020. McCaffrey likely isn’t the same player he was when he returned from a bilateral Achilles tear, but the 49ers’ offense has also struggled at times since losing Brandon Aiyuk.
However, McCaffrey’s usage remains elite — he had a 93% snap share and saw all 15 RB opportunities before the final two drives of San Francisco’s loss last week. The 49ers may be stumbling in the win/loss column, but their offense has the second-highest yards per game this season (6.3) despite last week’s ugly performance with the backup QB and LT. San Francisco has the second best yardage differential in the NFL. The 49ers ranked first (68.0%) in red zone TD percentage (50.0%) after last season, so scoring regression should be coming.
Given CMC’s role in this offense, even a smaller version can easily be a five-down fantasy back — but we need a healthy Purdy to do that.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Few coaches love a player more than Sean McVay Williams, but the running back has fumbled four times over the last four games (losing two). Williams has five NFL sacks (among non-QBs) and lost two in one of LA’s final games last season. Williams is getting just 4.0 YPC and hasn’t seen a single target in the last two games. It is possible that it is wearing out given the incredibly high usage (third most RB snaps) and its size.
That means Williams has a 90% snap share and 16 of 17 RB opportunities after fouling out in last week’s game. Another fumble or two could change things quickly, but his workhorse role seems intact for now. Matthew Stafford is averaging 287.5 yards per pass and 2.2 touchdowns this season with Puk Nacu and Cooper Kupp, making the Rams offense one of the best in the league when healthy. Additionally, Williams’ schedule has been the 10th-toughest in the league so far, but is the third-easiest moving forward.
Williams could still have a big fantasy finish, but fantasy managers will constantly worry that he’s fumbling again.
CJ Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud is QB26 in fantasy points per game, just ahead of the recently released (and now new Viking) Daniel Jones. Stroud has just two top-five QB weekly finishes in his career, both of which came last season. He ranks 24th in EPA/dropback and 32nd in completion percentage against expectations. He was also the busiest QB in the league. Stroud took a step back as a sophomore and is the latest example of the risk of drafting a high-fantasy quarterback who doesn’t run.
But now there is some hope that Nico Collins is back to full health. Stroud has averaged just 197.2 passes and 1.0 TDs this season without Collins on the field, but is averaging 269.9 and 1.3 with him. Houston also saw a significant increase in success rate (61.7%) and PROE (+7.1%) with Collins on the field compared to off (53.0%, -2.2%). Stroud would still be just QB19 (15.8 fpg) during games with Collins, but it’s worth noting that the duo had two long touchdown drives (combined 110 yards) over the last two weeks that were nullified by foul penalties.
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Stefon Diggs isn’t coming back, but Tank Dell could be more explosive down the stretch, the more he’s removed from leg surgery (like Tony Pollard last year). Additionally, the Texans’ QB schedule is the eighth most favorable in the league, including this week’s key game. Stroud should start posting better stats, but has been one of the biggest fantasy busts this season.
Kyler Murray & Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
Murray’s up-and-down season continued with a setback last week when Arizona scored just six points in a game with one of the highest game totals of the week. But Seattle’s defense has been playing much better lately, as the Seahawks rank fourth in EPA/play allowed since the Ernest Jones trade. Additionally, Michael Wilson caught a touchdown that was called back by a penalty, while Marvin Harrison Jr. he couldn’t even get his other foot into the end zone on the next play. Murray has had the toughest QB scheme in the league so far, but he’s average moving forward.
Murray has been a top five QB the same number of weeks (four) this season as he has been in the bottom 10, so expect more inconsistent play.
Harrison Jr. he hasn’t seen more than seven targets in a game since Week 3 and didn’t experience a rookie blowout from Arizona last week. No wide receiver in the top 60 averaged fewer fantasy points per game if you removed the touchdowns.
It’s not all Harrison Jr.’s fault, as his role in Arizona’s offense has been a major drag on production. But the rookie also ranks 84th in ESPN open scoring and 55th in average breakaway scoring. MHJ has fewer catches this year (36) than Jalen Tolbert, Will Dissly, Javonte Williams, Ray-Ray McCloud and Zach Ertz, among many others. Harrison Jr. he has a teammate who led the league in first-read target rate last week (58.8%!) and Arizona has one of the lowest above-expectation pass rates (-6.0%).
Rookie wide receivers typically perform better late in the season, and the Cardinals WR scheme ranges from third-toughest to sixth-easiest moving forward. Nevertheless – Harrison Jr. is on track to become one of this year’s biggest fantasy busts.