It climbed over several giants to the top spot in 2011 and hasn’t fallen out of the Top 3 since. Apple is not always the top dog, sometimes it is passed by other tech giants like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) not at all Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) for a while, but he never strays far from the top spot. And it is back in power as of this writing with a $3.54 trillion market cap as of November 25.
I’m not saying that the iPhone will go out of style and send Apple stock plummeting down the rankings in the next decade. However, I could imagine several smaller names currently becoming more important than Cupertino’s best in a decade or so. Read on to see why I hope so Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) taking Apple’s market crown over time.
First of all, I have to think that Apple’s record-setting stock will decline in the coming years. Otherwise, Amazon and Alphabet would have a hard time catching up. They are starting several steps behind the current leader, after all:
Data found on YCharts and Finviz, 11/25/24.
Apple did not find its leading market position in the cereal box. Despite declining sales of iPhones and iPads, the company has maintained a strong base of hardware sales paired with increased software and service revenue in recent years. The three have remained close since 2020, but Apple always seems to find a way back.
My simple thesis is that Apple is running out of real ideas. I know, you’ve heard it all before — iPads are just big iPhones without phone service, which makes the Apple ecosystem worse for the consumer, higher prices don’t always reflect superior products, and so on. Apple bears have been saying these things for years, but guess who is still the most important company in the world?
However, Apple has seen more misses than home runs lately. The Apple Vision Pro virtual reality headset never found the market and is said to be discontinued after less than a year. The latest round of product introductions were mostly faster iPhones, MacBooks, and iPads with more memory. Only time will tell if the more refined Apple Intelligence set of artificial intelligence (AI) features will make a difference. Either way, Apple hasn’t led the charge in the artificial AI era.
Sorry if I’m boring you to sleep with old Apple criticism. It seems to be working better than ever. And the lack of new fun is my main point here.
So I wouldn’t be surprised to see Apple rocket engines landing on the oil-burning market soon. The company certainly has the budget and engineering talent to prove me wrong – the proof is in the fruity pudding, though.
Why should Amazon beat Apple by a wide margin in the next decade? The innovation that is missing from the current leader is abundant at Amazon.
What started as a simple (but run down at the time) online bookstore has grown to dominate e-commerce in North America. The Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud computing platform also broke new ground and remains open to business leaders 18 years later. The company has also built an extensive delivery network FedEx and UPS In many ways, it created the foundations of AI before it was cool, and brought Alexa-powered digital assistants into millions of homes. That’s not a complete list, either. Just a few of the most obvious business changes this company has brought, off the top of my head.
Amazon’s innovation isn’t slowing down, either. The company looks for new and unique benefits every time. These trends should keep the stock rising over time, possibly surpassing Apple’s market value in a few years.
Here is another unstoppable innovator. Alphabet is still run by a division of Google, which leads the world’s market for online search and advertising. The sector also represents the Apple family of mobile phones, which holds a global market share of 70% thanks to a large network of device-builders. Oh, and don’t forget YouTube, the most popular digital video site in the world with more viewing hours than the category giant. Netflix.
These functions (and others) are part of Alphabet’s Google division. That would be good enough for many tech giants, but Alphabet wants more. If and when online search and advertising take off forever — and I’m sure they will one day — Alphabet needs to have another business ready to take the whole company forward.
Early competitors include medical research, a fiber-optic internet service provider, a group of self-driving taxis, and a host of AI-based services. I skipped over the Google Cloud platform in the last paragraph, but that’s another business with the Google name pulling its weight in the AI era.
Technology-driven sea changes have this disturbing tendency to shape the global consumer market time and time again. Before AI and smartphones, there were personal computers and video tapes. The list goes on, perhaps beyond the Neanderthals. There is no way to stop progress over time, but the real winners will know how to stay relevant in a different market. That’s what Alphabet is focusing on, and it’s another area where Apple seems to be falling.
So if you look at the biggest companies in (check notes) 2034, I expect Alphabet and Amazon to have passed Apple completely. Again, Apple may prove me wrong and I’d love to see the tech giant rekindle its extinguished flames one day. Until then, I’d rather own Alphabet and Google stock.
(NYSE: FDX) (NYSE: UPS) (NASDAQ: NFLX)
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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, which supports Amazon, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, CEO at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Anders Bylund has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Netflix, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, FedEx, Microsoft, Netflix, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends United Parcel Service and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Prediction: 2 Stocks Will Be Worth More Than Apple 10 Years From Now was originally published by The Motley Fool.
