In each of the past three seasons, the quarterback who was drafted highly but initially underachieved has blossomed in a new role with the right offense and coaching staff.
In 2022, the Seattle Seahawks selected 2013 second-round pick Geno Smith from the New York Jets to replace Russell Wilson as their franchise quarterback after Smith was lost to the Jets, New York Giants and Los Angeles Chargers. Smith has been a premier starter in the Emerald City ever since.
Baker Mayfield was selected by the Cleveland Browns with the first overall pick in 2018, fell out of favor with head coach Kevin Stefanski and was passed over in favor of Deshaun Watson, who joined the team in perhaps the worst deal in NFL history. Mayfield had a nice cup of coffee with the Los Angeles Rams before signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2023. Under offensive coordinators Dave Canales (who was instrumental in Smith’s pro rehab and is doing the same for 2023 first overall pick Bryce Young in Carolina) and now Liam Coen, Mayfield has come to define the Bucs franchise as much as any current player.
Related: Has Austin Seibert endured the most painful few minutes in NFL history?
Sam Darnold, another Jets underachiever early in his career, was selected No. 1 by Gang Green in 2018. 3 overall – two picks after Mayfield. It never worked out for Darnold there, and after three seasons he was catapulted out of the building in a trade to the Carolina Panthers. After two decent years with the Panthers and a 2023 stint with the San Francisco 49ers as a backup, Darnold found the perfect fit in Minnesota, where Vikings head coach and offensive lineman Kevin O’Connell capitalized on Darnold’s attributes. masking his shortcomings.
Could Jones be part of a similar feel-good story in 2025?
The Giants recently released the sixth overall pick in 2019 after a career of (mostly) subpar play. Jones never looked like The Guy. But to be fair, he also had three head coaches, four offensive coordinators and multiple offensive systems to deal with.
According to multiple reports, Jones (who cleared waivers, leaving any team that signs him without the weight of a four-year, $160 million contract he signs through 2023) would prefer to wait for the right situation — preferably with a playoff-caliber team. , which makes all the sense in the world. There’s no reason to go with the first franchise that offers him a roster spot, especially if Jones finds himself in a similar predicament.
Smith, Mayfield and Darnold were able to turn their careers around after landing with teams that built the right offenses around them. How can Jones’ second NFL team pull off a similar turnaround, most likely with the 27-year-old as the backup behind a true star quarterback?
Make RPO a core concept
Jones isn’t the best field reader in the NFL and there are times when he waits too long to throw. But he is mobile and can win as a runner. He has 2,179 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns in his career. So the run-pass option should be a big part of his next offense. This concept gives the quarterback the ability to throw, hand off to the running back, or run the ball himself based on how the defense is attacking. It also tends to limit the quarterback’s need to read the entire field since most RPO passes are from the rushing game.
This season, Jones has been relatively effective as a quarterback and as a runner in RPO plays. He completed eight of 13 passes for 52 yards while gaining 42 yards on six carries as an RPO runner. Teams like the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, or Philadelphia Eagles that have a higher RPO rate might be a good fit in this regard (again, we’re not saying Jones will replace Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, or even Bo Nix — but he could be a solid backup, and this the tactic would work if he came as a substitute).
Make Jones the game manager
The term “game manager” is generally considered pejorative because it refers to a quarterback whose physical gifts are not flashy and must therefore be protected by the coaching and talent around him. But every quarterback is a game manager to some extent, and even the all-time greats are as sought after for their overall consistency as for their flashes of brilliance.
What does this mean for Jones? In his case, his other coaches will want to establish a consistent rhythm in his passing game, and that means eschewing the deep ball in favor of short and intermediate passes. Not only does this regulate Jones’ inconsistencies, but it also eliminates the previously mentioned field read issues as plays go longer and Jones starts to get out of his depth.
Jones’ passing breakups this season tell the story:
Passes under 10 air yards: 172 completions in 247 attempts for 1,241 yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions and a 79.7 passer rating.
Passes for 10-19 air yards: 38 completions on 65 attempts for 613 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions and an 87.5 passer rating.
Passes of 20+ air yards: Six completions on 29 attempts for 216 yards, two touchdowns, one interception and a 66.7 passer rating.
Interceptions are what Jones’ next team should lead with, allowing him to make easy reads in red zone situations, which will complicate the short pass numbers for any quarterback unfamiliar with converting in those compressed situations. The Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals all have excellent passing games by design. From there you can build.
Help Jones become a “Messenger of Confidence”
Former Giants general manager Dave Gettleman took Jones at No. 6 after Jones had a great week of practice at the 2019 Senior Bowl and was named the game’s Most Valuable Player. One of the reasons Gettleman is the Giants the former The GM is that he put more emphasis on one All-Star week during the three seasons at Duke in which Jones put on tape that was much more of a second- or third-round pick.
This put Jones firmly in the realm of overdrawn loans. And while money is much better in this neighborhood, it also tends to create an unfortunate dichotomy between what is expected and what can actually be achieved. Not everyone is Tom Brady, who was selected 199th overall and wanted everyone in the world to pay dearly for that oversight.
At the final press conference, Jones read a statement as a Giants player apologizing for his overall performance and thanking the team. Jones was rightfully praised for handling the situation professionally, but it’s a tough way to end your time with the franchise. And Jones’ confidence, something crucial for a quarterback, could be affected as a result. Self-confidence is not the only thing that is crucial for a quarterback – his teammates also have to believe in his ability.
Young, for example, is turning things around with the Panthers this season after a terrible rookie campaign in 2023, in part because his teammates now believe in him. After Young had his best game last Sunday in a 30-27 loss to the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, veteran Adam Thielen said of Young that he has become “a messenger of our confidence and who we can be. We love the guy and [we] appreciate his way of thinking this year.”
Wherever Jones goes, he will need help from his new coaches and players to erase the footballing sins of the past. In short, the goal will be to help Jones become a Messenger of Confidence. This aspect is a must for any quarterback hoping to find professional redemption.