Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: Is Jaylen…Waddleing to WR1 in Miami?

Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: Is Jaylen…Waddleing to WR1 in Miami?

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Week 12 certainly brought plenty of excitement, starting with a game in the snow Thursday night, continuing with a thrilling fourth quarter leading to overtime in Chicago, KaVontae Turpin’s muffed punt turning into a 99-yard touchdown and a near upset in Carolina. Tampa Bay, Detroit, Miami and Green Bay showed their beleaguered rivals who’s boss with winning statements, while the Arizona Cardinals, not named Trey McBride (12/133 on 15 targets), might as well have stayed.

Star players appeared on Sunday Night Football, but that may not have been the case for the rest of the league. A lot of our No. 1s let us down in Week 12, which made for an ugly fantasy week given all the byes and injuries we were already dealing with. Today we take a look at the No. 2 guys who had big days and see if the tables have turned for these teams (fact) or if the stars will soon shine brightly again (coincidence).

Smith-Njigba became the clear-cut Seahawks WR1 for fantasy after the Week 10 bye. In those two games, he has 16 catches on 18 targets, while Metcalf has 11 catches on 14 targets. Smith-Njigba has the only receiving touchdown in that span. Tyler Lockett, meanwhile, has been outmatched, scoring just six goals in two games. With the second-highest passing yards per game average (257.2 yards), Geno Smith can certainly hold down two top fantasy receivers. In a sense, it doesn’t really matter who is 1A and who is 1B; both are fantasy starters every week.

While Smith-Njigba may seem like the wave of the future in his second year, it’s important to remember that Metcalf is only 26 years old. In PPR leagues, Smith-Njigba’s elite target share puts him ahead of Metcalf going forward. However, Metcalf’s speed and physicality at the catch point will get him big fantasy plays, at times at the expense of Smith-Njigba. In Week 13, Seattle travels against the NY Jets, whose stout defense ranks second in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed to opponents and first in completions allowed.

It will be a classic attack force vs. defensive strength on display in the Meadowlands, but I expect to see a lot more of Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet given that the Jets are an average rushing defense (at best), allowing the third-most rushing touchdowns per game. Temper your expectations on the Seahawks WRs this week, but expect both Smith-Njigba and Metcalf to have value in better matchups in Weeks 14 and 16, respectively.

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Just when the fantasy world was ready to give up on Waddle, he finally had his big game (8/144/1), while Hill’s effort in the Dolphins’ massive win over New England was forgettable (5/48). That screams coincidence on the surface, especially when you factor in Hill’s lingering wrist injury. But Waddle isn’t just a flash in the pan; was WR13 in 2022 and WR23 in 2023 (fantasy points per game).

With Tua Tagovailoa “on,” this offense can easily support 3-4 fantasy starters, a group that includes Jonna Smith (9/87/1 on 11 targets in Week 12) and, of course, De’Von Achane, who had two receiving touchdowns in the win. It’s a quick turnaround for Miami when they face the Packers in Green Bay on Thanksgiving. It’s a weak matchup for wide receivers, but I’m not sitting Waddle or Hill in a week without byes.

The agony or the amazing thing is that people actually started Addison because of all the weeks and injuries. If you faced him like I did, it was an early end to your hopes of victory. If you started it, it was clear. Only Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs have topped Addison for half the PPR fantasy points this week, as Addison put up a sparkling 8/162/1 line against the Bears. On the other end of the spectrum, Jefferson caught just two of five targets for 27 yards.

Mind you, the Bears have been one of the best pass defenses this season. It’s worth keeping in mind that they’ll sell out to stop the opponent’s best receiving weapon, willing to get beat by the next man down the line. (Side note: The Bears get Detroit next, which could make for a nice day for Jameson Williams in Week 13). Minnesota, meanwhile, gets two very fantasy-friendly WR matchups over the next two weeks, so you’ll likely get the best out of Jefferson as you head into the playoffs. Both Addison and Jalen Nailor are favorite targets in the end zone for Sam Darnold, so if they get you down in Week 14, both are worth starting again against Atlanta (surrenders third-most fantasy points to WRs).

Gray burst onto the TE scene over the last two weeks, scoring twice in each game. Kelce still leads him by miles in targets, catches and yards, but it’s been clear for some time now that we’re not dealing with the same old fantasy gold mine this year. The Chiefs will do what they have to do to win and are looking at another Super Bowl, so if that means keeping Kelce fresher at age 35, they will.

Based on his generally good target share (Buffalo has been exceptional over the last five games), you have to start Kelce. But based on his 90% catch rate and end zone magnetism, you can also consider Gray a positive fill-in, especially against the Raiders in Week 13.

Pickens leads all Steelers receivers in targets, catches and yards, more than doubling Austin, who is second in each category. Still, Austin has four touchdowns to Pickens’ two and looked to be the go-to guy for Russell Wilson for a couple of yards and a touchdown that gave Pittsburgh the lead in a snowy Week 12 game. But he’s only seen three targets to Pickens’ seven, and I tend to agree with by how I use it.

Austin will likely have one or two more ceiling games this season, but he will also have duds. Such is the nature of a WR2 on a shaky offense. Pickens is going to rebound for his fantasy managers, likely starting in Week 13 against a Bengals defense that is above average in fantasy points allowed to WRs.

While Anthony Richardson has somehow made his mark among his fantasy managers, he hasn’t really helped those who created — and started — his top WR. Josh Downs emerged as the WR1 in Indianapolis with six targets, eight more catches and two touchdowns than Pittman, but it was Pittman who came away with the better fantasy in Week 12 for the first time this season.

When it comes to deep threats, Alec Pierce is one of the best. He actually leads the Colts in receiving yards, averaging 13.1 yards per catch. Given that Pittman was drafted way ahead of Downs and Pierce wasn’t drafted in most leagues at all, do we buy the Week 12 “run”?

First, Pittman’s 6/96 on seven targets isn’t awe-inspiring, but it was among the catchiest passes Richardson threw in Week 12 (per FantasyLife’s usage report). Richardson had a terrible completion percentage of 39.3% last weekend and only saved his own fantastic day with 61 rushing yards. Second, it now appears that Downs (shoulder) will not play in Week 13. The Colts were completely outclassed by Detroit in a brutal loss, but with a better game ahead — NE can certainly be beaten through the air, as Tua Tagovailoa just showed ; I’m starting with Pittman.

No one beat Lamb in Week 12, but he certainly did well in non-PPR leagues (10/67 on 12 targets). The Cooper Rush effect hasn’t been too kind to the Lamb managers so far. Still, the usage is massive and there are better games ahead, including the Giants on Thursday. This is a frustrating season for Lamb between Dak Prescott’s lackluster play, a defense that can’t get off the field and now the Rush, but what can you do but scream into the void? Lamb remains an essential starter.

I might copy and paste the lamb announcement here. Über-talented WR1, bad QB play, now worse QB play. I’m not going to pick on New York’s defense because it’s mostly league average. Tommy DeVito’s 2024 experience didn’t get off to the best start, but he didn’t commit any turnovers and at least threw the ball to the right person. Nabers saw nine targets, catching six for 64 yards in Week 12. The bad news is that the Giants faced one of the league’s top fantasy QB/WR matchups in the Bucs. They’ll get another crack at a good game when they head to Dallas for Turkey Day. The Cowboys defense, as mentioned above, is at the bottom of the league in opposing possessions, yards per game and points per game. Nabers is a bright light in a very weak offense, but like Lamb, he still has to start.

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