On Target is a regular column where we explore the stats, trends and data points associated with the men who catch the football in our fantasy world.
Let’s dig into it.
Where are the Trey McBride touchdowns?
Every now and then I like to have fun with something I call the Diontae Johnson Award. It’s a nod to Johnson’s odd 2022 season, where he racked up a whopping 147 targets but somehow never scored a touchdown.
You will usually identify this kind of use and recognize a screaming low buy opportunity. Positive regression is a concept most fantasy managers already understand. But it’s also worth trying to understand why some players exceed their touchdown expectations and some players fall short.
And that brings us to Trey McBride, a great third year in Arizona.
McBride was a breakout player last year, heating up in the second half and finishing as a TE9. He maintained that this year, third in total points at the position and fourth in tight end points per game. McBride was the correct answer in 2024.
He is also the current recipient of the Diontae Johnson Award. He’s sitting on 65 targets and still hasn’t scored a single touchdown.
The default stance before any secondary kicking is to focus on these type of players. Volume is critical in fantasy football, and good players will eventually find the end zone, by design or luck. Occam’s Razor is a powerful solution to fantasy dilemmas – the simplest explanation is often the best.
However, there are two other possible explanations to consider. First, it’s easier for teams to run the ball than it is to pass the ball in the red zone when the windows are tighter and the connections are more difficult. Some teams are outliers in this area – some franchise quarterbacks throw in these crowded areas regularly and do quite well. But will Kyler Murray and the Cardinals ever be that team?
Murray has only attempted 29 red-zone passes this year, 25th in the league. His nine touchdowns in that span are tied for 16th in the league. So there’s a smaller pie for McBride to share. To narrow the range down to 5, Murray ranks 16th in attempts (seven), though he has four touchdowns (which is eighth).
Murray is currently enjoying his best professional season. All of his indexed metrics are well above league average; its accuracy has never been better.
But Murray will always be one of the smallest starters in the league, checking in at 5-foot-1. It would make intuitive sense that it is more of a weapon in the middle of the field than against the red zone. And the Cardinals have an established closer identity, with James Conner being one of the best power runners in the league. Murray’s pass rush is still a weapon.
The upcoming schedule is below par for about a month, with McBride facing four tough games. But if you make the playoffs, McBride’s slate can propel you over the top. He gets the Panthers and Rams the last two fantasy weeks — they’re first and fourth in points against tight ends.
Maybe the McBride touchdown regression won’t be ready for your Thanksgiving meal. But in about a month it could be a clever Christmas present.
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The use of bears in Thomas Browne’s debut
As you surely heard last week, the Bears fired committed offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and moved Thomas Brown to the bench. Chicago suffered a frustrating loss to the Packers when a last-second field goal was blocked, but there were encouraging signs from the offense. Caleb Williams had his best game in a month. The offense used motion more proactively. It may not have been a home run, but at least the Bears got on base.
Chicago typically runs a tight target tree, but there are two player trends worth noting. Rome Odunze played 82% of the snaps (and drew 10 field goals) against Green Bay, a remarkable blowout in the New England loss. And Cole Kmet broke 90% for the second week in a row. Waldron was one of Gerald Everett’s last fans — remember, Kmet played less than half the snaps on Opening Day. Fortunately, this story is now over.
Odunze (6-65-0) and Kmeť (3-42-0) weren’t exactly weekly winners with their Week 11 stats, but it’s a positive step. And Williams looked much more comfortable in the game plan. Chicago may have the toughest schedule in the league, but at least Odunze and Kmeť could be useful depth pieces when we get into some hell of trouble in Weeks 12 and 14.
Jauan Jennings, Alpha in San Francisco
Earlier this year, we took a closer look at Jennings and tried to see if the Signature Significance rules apply after his 11-175-3 smash against the Rams. We came to the conclusion that Jennings was the one, but injuries derailed the story for a while.
Jennings is now back, healthy and solidified in San Francisco’s offense. He’s locked into the Brandon Aiyuk X role and trusted by Kyle Shanahan and quarterback Brock Purdy. Jennings draws regular first-read targets and Purdy pulls the trigger in the tightest window.
It’s time to give Jennings another award. He is the number 1 receiver here, the alpha, the priority.
It wasn’t even close the last two weeks. Jennings has 22 targets, while Deebo Samuel Sr. only 13; Jennings earned 17-184-1, Samuel 9-84-0. For the year, Jennings has a 60.3% success rate on his goals; Samuel lags behind at 42.3%. It makes sense that Jennings takes over.
The fantasy market hasn’t completely changed yet—Samuel is still ranked 16th on the current board, while Jennings is 19th. But not only should that ranking flip, there should probably be considerable distance between Jennings and Aiyuk. Drive volume or track efficiency, it doesn’t matter. Both paths will lead you to the same conclusion.