For desperately optimistic San Francisco 49ers fans, there will be a path through this brutal remaining maze and into the playoffs.
They point to an extremely close race for the NFC West crown that could hang in the balance until the final week of the season. They’ll keep their fingers crossed for injuries and hope three of their top four players — quarterback Brock Purdy, linebacker Nick Bosa and offensive lineman Trent Williams — come out of the tunnel next week and turn things around against the Buffalo Bills (9-2). And they’ll certainly avoid thinking about how eerily similar this campaign was to the 2020 season, when San Francisco was plagued by health issues and identity issues after losing in the Super Bowl the previous season, resulting in a hugely disappointing 6-10 record that inspired the eventual rebuilding the roster.
On that last point, it’s hard to ignore the symmetry of this lost 2020 season. The 49ers were 5-6 heading into December, looking like a shadow of themselves, and hosting the Bills in what felt like their last best chance to save the season. San Francisco lost 34-24 in a game that was never really as close as the score indicated. By the end of it, it was clear that the season was over and the 49ers had a lot of work to do.
A week from now, the same thing could and probably will be said about the 2024 49ers, who look nothing like the team that lost the Super Bowl last season. You can pick any 10-minute stretch of Sunday’s crushing 38-10 loss to the Green Bay Packers — the 49ers’ worst loss under Shanahan since 2018 — and you’ll find alarming features everywhere. A team that couldn’t dictate the run or find anything explosive to throw the football. A defensive front that got slapped in the ear by Packers running back Josh Jacobs on his first carry of the game and never seemed to recover. The overall lack of focus that led to nine penalties, several of which occur at critical moments. And a stunning display of stunning football that suggests the 49ers won’t be able to recover, just like the last edition that lost in the Super Bowl a season ago.
“The whole game was [disappointing]” Shanahan said afterwards. “Mark only the biggest ones [disappointment]the first half, just the running defense was a real disappointment. … Their ability to control that clock in the first half was one of the worst I’ve been around in a half.”
Shanahan repeated the word “embarrassed” several times in his postgame press conference, applying the label to the entire team in what seemed like an appropriate response to a loss that’s half lesson, half warning.
The lesson: The 49ers are as lethal as any team that can’t survive without a marquee starting quarterback, an elite edge rusher and a tone-setting offensive tackle. When they’re hurt, they’re vulnerable, especially against the NFC’s top teams — which the Packers are.
And a warning: Let this be the standard that ends all talk of Shanahan running it any quarterback in his scheme, especially in a one-game situation. It’s a fallacy that’s already been proven, but also conveniently and repeatedly forgotten whenever anyone dares to enter Purdy’s name into a conversation about the league’s best QBs. Yes, he has had his ups and downs this season. But rarely has an attack looked so flat and seemingly aimed at shooting itself in the foot.
If anything, this Packers loss is a snapshot reminder of what life can be like when you don’t have a reliable quarterback leading Shanahan’s offense. All of the problems certainly weren’t just the absence of Purdy, but the inability to find any kind of fix during the game definitely had something to do with the quarterback spot. As it turns out, the system usually looks best when the quarterback who fits and controls the system is the one in charge. That’s food for thought this offseason, when there will inevitably be conversations about the cost of extending Purdy’s contract versus his true value to the franchise.
Of course, that’s a conversation for later. For now, we’re focused on what this loss means for the 49ers. With the Los Angeles Rams losing to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night, the NFC West remains in the hands of the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals — both sitting at 6-5 and simultaneously jockeying for who will win the division and who will try. to qualify for the final NFC wildcard slot. At 5-6, the 49ers haven’t exactly been left in the lurch when it comes to the postseason, but while the math is still there for the taking, the spirit of what lies beyond is problematic.
Purdy was already struggling with consistency before the latest shoulder soreness sidelined him against the Packers. There’s no telling how big of a deal it will be when (or if) he returns. While it’s certainly suggestive of a game the 49ers needed to win against Green Bay, his shoulder was a big enough problem to sideline him. The same goes for Bose’s hip and Williams’ ankle. Both may be close to returning, but neither is guaranteed to play at their highest level — for a team that needs them to play at a high level right now. And if that wasn’t enough, two other key players, defensive tackle Jordan Elliott and offensive guard Aaron Banks, both left Sunday with concussion concerns.
Now, after the loss to the Packers, the intersection of those health issues comes into the most common of road games: Sunday night in prime time against the Bills. A well-rested franchise will head into the bye week chasing the top seed in the AFC playoffs after beating the Kansas City Chiefs in a convincing fashion in Week 11. While a win like this usually raises concerns about an upset the next game, a bye week and early postseason bets for the Bills effectively guarantee they’ll prove ready.
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If we’re being honest about what the 49ers face from a schedule perspective, the time to win was against the Packers. Not being able to win on Sunday makes this game against the Bills and every other game a pseudo playoff game. Basically, the 49ers are there. Starting this week, they are participating in a single-elimination postseason tournament. And after the Bills, it’s the Chicago Bears (still dealing with their own issues, but improving), Rams (who beat the 49ers in September), Miami Dolphins (who are a handful with Tua Tagovailoa back under center), Detroit Lions (Super Bowl favorites, winners nine in a row and looking for revenge for the loss in the NFC title) and finally a road game against the Arizona Cardinals, who are no longer being pushed around.
We don’t need to deal with injuries, focus, and inconsistencies in games if we want to quell San Francisco’s woes. We can only look at the uphill bend – which at this point is more like climbing Mt. Everest – and tells us everything we need to know.
The 2024 49ers season is over. We just haven’t seen it yet.