It’s time to once again answer the question we’ve been asking all season: what should we do about the dolphin attack?
However, this week we will look at the question from a more positive perspective. With Tua Tagovailoa out, the entire offense was unusable. When Tua returned, De’Von Achane was the only reliable option. Now, in Week 12, the entire Dolphins offense finally looks like a cohesive and coherent unit poised for the fantastic surge we were hoping for heading into the season.
But isn’t it too late?
At the beginning of the season, the Dolphins’ late season schedule was the main concern for me:
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Week 13 @ Green Bay Packers
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Week 14 vs. New York Jets
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Week 15 at the Houston Texans
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Week 16 vs. San Francisco 49ers
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Week 17 at the Cleveland Browns
It was a daunting plan…in theory. However, moving forward, things look interesting now.
Green Bay has had a known problem defending the run, but they’ve held up pretty well, almost deadlocked in average points against opposing running backs. They were tough against opposing quarterbacks, allowing the seventh fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the tenth fewest to receivers. Oddly enough, Green Bay might be the toughest matchup for Tagovailoa.
The Jets defense has been reeling and vulnerable at all positions since firing Robert Saleh. The Texans can’t seem to pick a lane and decide if they are good or bad on defense. The 49ers have been hit by a wave of injuries. The Browns are in a tailspin and their only advantage is the game v Cleveland.
With this new schedule in mind for the rest of the season, and finally seeing a strong overall offensive performance, let’s talk about what to expect from our key Dolphins fantasy assets moving forward — and who we can trust.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
As with any NFL offense, it all starts and ends with the quarterback. To start the week, Tua Tagovailoa had his best performance of the season with a fantastic 23.5 points and three touchdowns, both season highs. He used that momentum to perform even better with over 300 yards, four touchdowns and a fantastic 28.5 points, making him the overall QB3 of the week (before primetime games).
Pulse check: Can we really believe that Tua is back on track?
While I have some cold weather concerns for Tagovailoa, especially in a night game at Green Bay and Cleveland during championship week, his outlook for the rest of the season remains strong. The Week 17 game against Cleveland is likely off due to weather concerns, but the Dolphins are fighting for their playoff lives and keeping their foot on the gas. Despite some offseason struggles from the receiving corps, Tagovailoa has one of the most productive pass-catching groups in the league, including his running backs and tight ends. He has QB1 up until Week 16.
De’Von Achane, RB
Speaking of prolific pass catchers, the most consistent and reliable option through the air has been De’Von Achane. We often see strong returners become PPR codes through massive income totals, but that is not the case with Achana. I don’t have updated stats from Week 12 yet, but heading into the week, Achane ranked third in red-zone targets among running backs and first in red-zone touchdowns. Achane, who narrowed it down even more, led all running backs in targets inside the 5-yard line. Those numbers should only improve after Achane caught two touchdowns in the red zone today.
Pulse check: Is Achan’s income enough to overcome the lack of production on the ground?
In an ideal world, we want the reliability of a back with strong ground work, but 100 yards on the ground really isn’t necessary for Achane to reach his ceiling on a weekly basis. His program for the rest of the season is on track and his work in the field is adequate, but he will continue to be carried by his work in the air. The red zone stats for Achane above include weeks without Tua. With Tua, Achane was an absolute machine. He is matchup resistant and should be considered a weekly top 5 play.
Tyreek Hill, WR
For all the brilliance Achane has shown since Tagovailoa’s return, we’ve only seen a slight improvement in production from Tyreek Hill. From Weeks 3-7 without Tagovailoa, Hill averaged just 5.9 fantasy points per game. Since Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8, Hill has averaged 10.6 fantasy points. It’s an improvement, but nowhere near what we expected.
A certain level of volatility is understandable, but we’re not getting there either. Hill’s best performance since Tagovailoa’s return came in Week 11 against Las Vegas, when he scored a fantastic 15.6 points in half a PPR and finished as WR16. We’re basically stuck with a middle floor and only hope for a WR2 up top.
Pulse check: What next earth are we doing it with Hill?
Because he’s Tyreek Hill, we can’t stop playing him. His talent is undeniable and a lingering hand injury could affect his performance. But he’s firmly in WR2 territory now, and frankly, his ranking there is only held up by name value. The rise exists in theory, but the theory must be translated into actual production.
Jaylen Waddle, WR
Waddle was the opposite of Hill. While Hill provided at least some level of floor—albeit a low one—Waddle’s floor was basement, making him a complete unstarter. After scoring 11 fantasy points in Week 1, Waddle has failed to surpass five fantasy points in nine straight games. It didn’t matter who was at quarterback or what the game was; he just couldn’t produce. Just when you were ready to give up, he delivered a huge boom game this week with 24 fantasy points in half PPR. Waddle caught 8 of 9 targets for 144 yards and a touchdown, easily his best game of the season, even including the games before Tagovailo’s injury.
Pulse check: Is Waddle back on the table or was it a random blip in the football universe?
That performance is encouraging, but it’s hard to believe it’s the new norm for Waddle. We’re cautiously optimistic, but the reality remains: Waddle has shown a zero floor all season. We can’t look at the matches to predict if Waddle will repeat because the good matches before this week have not produced any positive results. I’d like to see a low-end WR2 performance next week before Waddle is declared rehabbed. Proceed with caution.
Jonna Smith, TE
I wrote about Smith in last week’s Make or Break column, highlighting the increased consistency of his targets and touchdowns as the key to his double-digit fantasy performances. He had his second best performance of the year this week, catching nine of 11 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown. Smith has now surpassed 19 fantasy points in each of the last two games and has become one of Tua’s most reliable targets.
Pulse check: With two back-to-back fantastic performances, is Smith a weekly top five pick?
Smith’s increased usage is not surprising. The Dolphins were struggling to find a tight end to fit Mike McDaniel’s system, and Smith seemed to be the perfect fit. He really stepped into the weapon we were hoping for.
With two solid weeks in a row, my confidence in Smith is growing. The schedule ahead is less favorable for tight ends, with San Francisco, the Jets and Houston all ranking in the top 10 for the fewest fantasy points allowed at the position. However, given the volume Smith is seeing, he remains a clear top 10 weekly option.