How many SEC teams are actually in playoff contention?
Only three teams in the league have two or fewer losses after Week 13, which saw Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M lose on the road. Does that mean the SEC only has three playoff chances? Or does a three-loss team have a chance?
We would not write off teams with three losses. Especially Texas A&M. The Aggies can clinch an automatic berth with a win over Texas and a win over Georgia in the SEC title game. And both Alabama and Ole Miss had wins over Georgia.
However, we think Tuesday’s College Football Playoff rankings will feature just three SEC teams. Here’s how we think the bracket will look after correctly tuning each team and seed last week.
Bye in the first round
1. Oregon (11-0, projected Big Ten winner)
The Ducks were away in Week 13 and are the only undefeated team left in college football’s highest level.
2. Texas (10-1, projected SEC winner)
Texas won against a Kentucky team that couldn’t make the most of any opportunities it had. Quinn Ewers suffered an ankle injury in the win, and the Longhorns hope it’s just a small step heading into this big game against the Aggies.
3. Miami (10-1, projected ACC champion)
Miami did what was needed against Wake Forest. A win in Week 14 puts the Hurricanes in the ACC title game against SMU.
4. Boise State (10-1, projected Mountain West winner)
Ashton Jeanty passed the 2,000-yard mark, but also suffered what appeared to be a left ankle injury. However, Jeanty was able to get back into the game and Boise State survived Wyoming’s upset bid for a 17-13 victory.
First round games
No. 12 Arizona State (8-2, projected Big 12 champion) at No. 5 Ohio State (10-1, at large)
The Sun Devils are in the best position of any team atop the Big 12. Arizona State has the tiebreaker advantage over everyone else and is in the Big 12 title game with a win over Arizona. The Sun Devils should still be the Big 12’s top-seeded team in the rankings Tuesday night. Ohio State will remain at No. 2 in the rankings after an impressive win over Indiana, but currently sits at No. 5. The Buckeyes get a rematch with the Ducks for the Big Ten title with a win over Michigan.
no. 11 Indiana (10-1, at-large) at no. 6. Notre Dame (10-1, at-large)
The Hoosiers are the main beneficiary of the chaos in the SEC. If Alabama and Ole Miss were to win, it would be easy to see the committee knocking Indiana off the field this week. Instead, the Hoosiers need to feel really good about their chances. A win over Purdue should be enough to make the playoffs.
We think Notre Dame could jump ahead of Penn State in the rankings after an impressive win over previously undefeated Army. The Irish are a very complete team right now, riding a nine-game winning streak after a stunning Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois.
no. 10 SMU (10-1, at-large) at No. 7 Penn State (10-1, Big)
SMU should find itself in the field for the first time after an easy win over Virginia that clinched a spot in the ACC title game. SMU is also riding a nine-game winning streak since a Week 2 loss to BYU. Here’s a situation to ponder: Will SMU go down as an at-large team at 11-2 if it loses to Miami in the ACC title game?
The Nittany Lions got away from Minnesota with a 26-25 win. Like Indiana, Penn State will feel great about its playoff chances with a win over Maryland in the regular season finale.
no. 9 Tennessee (9-2, at-large) at No. 8 Georgia (9-2, at-large)
Don’t start thinking about a rematch between the Vols and Bulldogs just yet. This will probably change. Georgia has clinched a spot in the SEC title game and will play either Texas or Texas A&M on Dec. 7. There are still plenty of seeds for the Bulldogs.
Tennessee was the biggest recipient of playoff losses in the SEC. After falling out of contention a week ago, the Vols are back and should make the playoffs with a win over Vanderbilt.